Severe Thunderstorm Warning 59, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
906 PM CDT WED APR 23 2003

WL UPDATE TO MAINLY ADJUST POP WORDING.

PROFILERS AND UA ANALYSIS SHOWS SHRA AND TSRA OVER SE KS RELATED TO
AN AREA OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS. THIS AREA OF
PRECIP SHUD CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. ATTENTION WL
THEN TURN TO ANOTHER WAVE WHICH IS NOW KICKING OUT OF SW KS. COLDER
AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES TNGHT.
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THIS WAVE WL BE ABLE TO INTERACT WITH THE
MAIN 850MB MOISTURE, SO TSRA WL STILL BE A POSSIBILITY, JUST NOT TO
CONFIDENT ON COVERAGE. SO WL KEEP POPS IN EVERYWHERE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DROPPED TEMPS SLIGHTLY OVER SE KS, BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES.

LAWSON

------------------------------------------------------------------
340 PM CDT WED APR 23 2003

TNGT:
NMRS TSRA CONT MOVG N/NE ACRS MOST OF CWA THIS AFTN & WITH NEW TSRA
DVLPG OVER FAR WRN OK JUST E OF SFC-850MB DRY LINE 80-90% POPS JUST-
IFIED ALL AREAS. WITH MID-UPR LOW SPINNING OVER ERN CO, DRY LINE TO
SURGE E ACRS WRN OK DICTATING EMPHASIS ON 6PM-MID NGT PERIOD ALG WRN
CORRIDOR WHERE LWR-MID LVL DRY SLOTTING LIKELY MID NGT-2AM.

THU:
MID-UPR LOW PROGD TO MOVE E, THEN SE ACRS KS. WITH GREATEST 500-MB
HGT FALLS OVER NM PER 12Z ANALYSIS, AM ENTERTAINING THOUGHTS THIS
CREATURE MAY ASSUME MORE SE MOVEMENT SOONER THAN MODELS DEPICT. IF
THIS SCENARIO MATERIALIZES, DOWNSTAIRS COUNTERPARTS WILL LIKEWISE
ASSUME MORE SELY TRACK TO INCR UPSLOPE RA POTENTIAL ACRS CNTRL KS
THATLL INCR IN AFTN. PER THIS REASONING, ASSIGNED HIGHEST POPS (50-
60%) TO NE-MOST FOUR COUNTIES.

THU NGT:
WITH SFC-850MB LOW PROGD TO RESUME EASTERLY TRACK ACRS OK/AR BORDER,
BEST SHOT FOR SHRA STILL SLATED FOR NE SECTOR WHERE 30% POP
ASSIGNED.

FRI:
ANY CHC FOR WRAP-ARND SHRA TO BE CONFINED TO ERN CORRIDOR WHERE CLO-
SER TO DEPARTING SFC-850MB LOW.
ES

FCSTID =    4
ICT   55  62  48  64 /  90  50  30   5
HUT   54  61  47  65 /  90  50  20   0
EWK   54  63  47  64 /  90  50  30   5
EQA   55  62  48  64 /  90  50  30   5
WLD   56  64  49  66 /  90  40  20   5
RSL   50  57  44  64 /  80  40  20   0
GBD   50  57  45  64 /  80  40  20   0
SLN   52  60  45  63 /  90  50  30   0
MPR   53  60  46  64 /  90  50  20   5
CFV   58  70  50  64 /  90  40  20  10
CNU   57  69  51  64 / 100  40  30  20
K88   56  68  51  62 /  90  50  30  20

.ICT...
KS...NONE.

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-241200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
600 PM CDT WED APR 23 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED, A FEW VERY ISOLATED STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE
OF PENNIES OR A WIND GUST TO AROUND 50 MPH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER SUNDOWN, WITH THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS KANSAS ON THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS. ALTHOUGH SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SOMEWHAT
WEAKER, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE, SUPPORTING STRONG
UPDRAFTS. THE MAIN RISK ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE LARGE HAIL,
HOWEVER WIND SHEAR PROFILES MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW
SUPERCELL STORMS WITH TORNADOES.

LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER
SITUATION.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT, MAINLY BETWEEN 7 PM AND 1 AM, FOR AREAS WEST OF THE KANSAS
TURNPIKE. SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
MAINLY EAST OF A MARION TO EUREKA TO COFFEYVILLE LINE.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ICT/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

LAWSON/DARMOFAL