Severe Thunderstorm Warning 61, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
313 AM CDT THU APR 24 2003

FCST CONCERN...
SAME OLD SAME OLD, PCPN/CNVTV TRENDS TODAY/TNGT...

STAKCED CLOSED LOW SPINNING ALG KS/CO BORDER PROGD TO MOV ESEWD ACRS
THE CWA TODAY. SFC LOW SHOULD PASS ACRS SCNTRL-SERN KS, RUFLY ALG A
ICT-PPF LN. EARLY MRNG CNVTN OCCURRING AHD OF DISTINCT SHRTWV/VORT
LOBE, WHICH WL MOVE NEWD ACRS THE MID PTN OF THE CWA THRU DAWN. ISOLD
HAIL WL RMN POSBL ASSOCD WITH MID LVL CAA/LWRG FRZG LVLS. THE POTNL
FOR LRG HAIL WL EXIST ACRS MUCH OF THE CWA INTO THE AFTN UNDER COLD
POOL ALOFT. ALTHO SPEED SHEAR IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE, GOOD DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR WL EXIST E OF LOW CNTR, ACRS SERN KS. THIS WL LKLY BE SUPPORTIVE
OF SOME SUPERCELL STMS, WITH CAVEAT AGAIN BEING THE DEGREE OF INSTBY.
EVEN WITH MINIMAL SFC HTG, CAPES STILL LOOK TO BE IN EXCESS OF 1K J/KG
AND COULD BE WAS MUCH AS 2000 J/KG. THE LATTER SCENARIO WOULD SUGGEST
STGR UPDRAFT CORES/VERT STRETCHING WITH INCRSD POTNL FOR VRY LRG HAIL
AND EVEN TORNADOES. WL RE-INTRO SVR WORDING TO SERN KS TODAY FOR THE
ABV SCENARIO.

OTHERWISE, LOW LVL MSTR WL BE SLOW TO ADVCT OR SCOUR OUT OF THE AREA
INTO FRI WITH RELATIVE COLD POOL LINGERING ALOFT AS UPR LOW DEPARTS.
THIS SHOULD KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SLGT SHWR CHCS TNGT AND
MAINLY SERN KS ON FRI.

UPR TROF MOVG ACRS THE NRN ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS ON SAT LOOKS TO
BRING BACK MEAN SLY LO LVL FLO ACRS THE CNTRL PLAINS. WITH RESIDUAL
MSTR AROUND CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHWR IN RETURN WAA/LIFT AHD OF
APCHG FNT LATE SAT/SAT NGT, BUT FOR NOW WL LEAVE FCST DRY.

FCSTID = 13/DARMOFAL
ICT   65  48  65  47 /  40  30  10  10
HUT   63  46  64  45 /  50  30  10  10
EWK   65  47  64  46 /  40  30  10  10
EQA   66  48  64  47 /  40  30  10  10
WLD   68  48  66  48 /  40  20  10  10
RSL   57  43  60  44 /  60  30   5  10
GBD   59  44  63  45 /  60  30   5  10
SLN   62  46  63  45 /  60  40  10  10
MPR   63  46  64  45 /  60  40  10  10
CFV   72  48  66  49 /  50  30  10  10
CNU   70  49  64  47 /  60  40  20  10
K88   69  49  64  46 /  60  40  20  10

.ICT...NONE.

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-241200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
600 PM CDT WED APR 23 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED, A FEW VERY ISOLATED STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE
OF PENNIES OR A WIND GUST TO AROUND 50 MPH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER SUNDOWN, WITH THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS KANSAS ON THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS. ALTHOUGH SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SOMEWHAT
WEAKER, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE, SUPPORTING STRONG
UPDRAFTS. THE MAIN RISK ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE LARGE HAIL,
HOWEVER WIND SHEAR PROFILES MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW
SUPERCELL STORMS WITH TORNADOES.

LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER
SITUATION.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT, MAINLY BETWEEN 7 PM AND 1 AM, FOR AREAS WEST OF THE KANSAS
TURNPIKE. SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
MAINLY EAST OF A MARION TO EUREKA TO COFFEYVILLE LINE.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ICT/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

LAWSON/DARMOFAL