Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
313 AM CDT THU APR 24 2003

FCST CONCERN...
SAME OLD SAME OLD, PCPN/CNVTV TRENDS TODAY/TNGT...

STAKCED CLOSED LOW SPINNING ALG KS/CO BORDER PROGD TO MOV ESEWD ACRS
THE CWA TODAY. SFC LOW SHOULD PASS ACRS SCNTRL-SERN KS, RUFLY ALG A
ICT-PPF LN. EARLY MRNG CNVTN OCCURRING AHD OF DISTINCT SHRTWV/VORT
LOBE, WHICH WL MOVE NEWD ACRS THE MID PTN OF THE CWA THRU DAWN. ISOLD
HAIL WL RMN POSBL ASSOCD WITH MID LVL CAA/LWRG FRZG LVLS. THE POTNL
FOR LRG HAIL WL EXIST ACRS MUCH OF THE CWA INTO THE AFTN UNDER COLD
POOL ALOFT. ALTHO SPEED SHEAR IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE, GOOD DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR WL EXIST E OF LOW CNTR, ACRS SERN KS. THIS WL LKLY BE SUPPORTIVE
OF SOME SUPERCELL STMS, WITH CAVEAT AGAIN BEING THE DEGREE OF INSTBY.
EVEN WITH MINIMAL SFC HTG, CAPES STILL LOOK TO BE IN EXCESS OF 1K J/KG
AND COULD BE WAS MUCH AS 2000 J/KG. THE LATTER SCENARIO WOULD SUGGEST
STGR UPDRAFT CORES/VERT STRETCHING WITH INCRSD POTNL FOR VRY LRG HAIL
AND EVEN TORNADOES. WL RE-INTRO SVR WORDING TO SERN KS TODAY FOR THE
ABV SCENARIO.

OTHERWISE, LOW LVL MSTR WL BE SLOW TO ADVCT OR SCOUR OUT OF THE AREA
INTO FRI WITH RELATIVE COLD POOL LINGERING ALOFT AS UPR LOW DEPARTS.
THIS SHOULD KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SLGT SHWR CHCS TNGT AND
MAINLY SERN KS ON FRI.

UPR TROF MOVG ACRS THE NRN ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS ON SAT LOOKS TO
BRING BACK MEAN SLY LO LVL FLO ACRS THE CNTRL PLAINS. WITH RESIDUAL
MSTR AROUND CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHWR IN RETURN WAA/LIFT AHD OF
APCHG FNT LATE SAT/SAT NGT, BUT FOR NOW WL LEAVE FCST DRY.

FCSTID = 13/DARMOFAL
ICT   65  48  65  47 /  40  30  10  10
HUT   63  46  64  45 /  50  30  10  10
EWK   65  47  64  46 /  40  30  10  10
EQA   66  48  64  47 /  40  30  10  10
WLD   68  48  66  48 /  40  20  10  10
RSL   57  43  60  44 /  60  30   5  10
GBD   59  44  63  45 /  60  30   5  10
SLN   62  46  63  45 /  60  40  10  10
MPR   63  46  64  45 /  60  40  10  10
CFV   72  48  66  49 /  50  30  10  10
CNU   70  49  64  47 /  60  40  20  10
K88   69  49  64  46 /  60  40  20  10

.ICT...NONE.

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-251030-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1149 AM CDT THU APR 24 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE AREA, THERE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO THE VERY COLD AIR ALOFT AND INSTABILITY
PRESENT, LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER, A FEW
REPORTS OF COLD AIR FUNNELS OR EVEN BRIEF TORNADOES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL, SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ICT/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

JMC

KSZ047-050>053-067>072-082-083-242300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
129 PM CDT THU APR 24 2003

...COLD AIR FUNNEL CLOUDS AND BRIEF TORNADOES POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...

A FEW COLD AIR FUNNEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL COLD
AIR FUNNELS TO OCCUR. WHILE MOST OF THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
TOUCH DOWN, A FEW COULD REACH THE GROUND AND BECOME TORNADOES. IN
THE EVENT THIS OCCURS, SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY IN A REINFORCED
STRUCTURE SUCH AS A BASEMENT OF A HOME, OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR.

JMC