Alert archive / North Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 158, NWS Grand Forks, ND

July 19, 2003Nelson County, North Dakota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 19, 2003, 10:24 PM CDT for Nelson County, North Dakota. It was in force for 51 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 19, 2003, 10:24 PM CDT (03:24 UTC)
Expired: Jul 19, 2003, 11:15 PM CDT
In force: 51 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Forks, ND
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Nelson County, ND

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 91 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:24 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jul 19, 5:30 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 00:00Z, 3.4 hours before the alert went out and 226 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 274 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -67 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 3216 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 44 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 31 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 159 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

634 
WUUS53 KFGF 200324
SVRFGF
NDC063-200415-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
1025 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

  NELSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.

* UNTIL 1115 PM CDT.

* AT 1019 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF LAKOTA...OR ABOUT 16
  MILES EAST OF DEVILS LAKE...MOVEMENT WAS TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 30
  MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...

  LAKOTA AT 1040 PM...
  MAPES AT 1050 PM...
  MICHIGAN AT 1055 PM AND
  PEKIN AT 1105 PM.

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

LAT...LON 4819 9838 4802 9841 4800 9851 4771 9831
          4795 9791

$$

DONAVON

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 19, 8:45 PM CDT, 1 hour 39 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 19, 8:45 PM CDT, 1 hour 39 minutes before

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
845 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2003

.CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL OVERVIEW...
01Z MSAS ANALYSIS DEPICTED PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM ARROWHEAD OF
MINNESOTA TO NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA WHILE PARENT COLD FRONT WAS
POISED FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA TO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED SOUTHEAST PUNCHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED 250MB 90KT JET MAX VICINITY OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA.
BOTH FEATURES WERE AIDING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND RESULTANT
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT IN TROPICAL AIRMASS ACROSS NORTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA.

.FORECAST DETAILS...
CURRENT JUICY AIRMASS IN PLACE/UPPER LEVEL JET INTERACTION AHEAD
OF IMPENDING COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN LINGERING CONVECTIVE
THREAT WITH SCATTERED SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH LATE EVENING.
BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION/TIMING OF FRONT WILL LINGER THUNDER THREAT
ACROSS FAR SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER SOME
UNCERTAINTY EXITS WITH RESPECT TO INTENSITY/AREAL COVERAGE IN
THOSE LOCATIONS LATER TONIGHT. WILL UPDATE ZONES RE-EVALUATE
CONVECTIVE THREAT AS EVENING PROGRESSES AND BETTER CONVECTIVE
TRENDS ARE ESTABLISHED.

FGF...NONE.

BERG

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 19, 11:10 AM CDT, 11 hours 14 minutes before

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-191815-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
1110 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTER
NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA BETWEEN 4 PM TODAY AND 3 AM
TONIGHT.

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO NORTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
THIS TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING EAST OF THE RED
RIVER...WITH A FEW OF THESE POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL.  THERE IS ALSO A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING.

THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION..A FEW OF THESE MAY BECOME SEVERE AS WELL WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL.  A STRONGER FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA
AND INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT.  THIS FRONT WILL
HAVE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND IS EXPECTED TO GIVE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.  A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXISTS AGAIN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 4 PM TODAY AND THROUGH THE
EVENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FGF/INDEX.HTML (ALL LOWER CASE)

RIDDLE

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 19, 8:41 PM CDT, 1 hour 43 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
841 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0825 PM    3 S NIAGARA               ND   .75 INCH HAIL
07/19/03   GRAND FORKS

0830 PM    3.5 NW LOGAN CENTER       ND   .75 INCH HAIL
07/19/03   GRAND FORKS

WJB

Local storm report, Jul 19, 8:43 PM CDT, 1 hour 41 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
843 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0825 PM    3 S NIAGARA               ND   .75 INCH HAIL
07/19/03   GRAND FORKS

0830 PM    3.5 NW LOGAN CENTER       ND   .88 INCH HAIL
07/19/03   GRAND FORKS

WJB

Local storm report, Jul 19, 8:57 PM CDT, 1 hour 27 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
857 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0845 PM    6 W NORTHWOOD             ND   .75 INCH HAIL
07/19/03   GRAND FORKS

WJB

Local storm report, Jul 19, 9:17 PM CDT, 1 hour 7 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
917 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0850 PM    9 ENE SHARON              ND   70 MPH TSTORM WIND
07/19/03   STEELE                         REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

0900 PM    14 NE FINLEY              ND   1.00 INCH HAIL
07/19/03   STEELE                         REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

WJB

Local storm report, Jul 19, 9:41 PM CDT, 43 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
941 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0930 PM    3 1/2 E CLIFFORD          ND   1.50 INCH HAIL
07/19/03   TRAILL

LK

Local storm report, Jul 19, 10:05 PM CDT, 19 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
1005 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0930 PM    3 1/2 E CLIFFORD          ND   1.50 INCH HAIL
07/19/03   TRAILL

0945 PM    4 E GALESBURG             ND   .88 INCH HAIL
07/19/03   TRAILL

0955 PM    2 S HUNTER                ND   .88 INCH HAIL
07/19/03   CASS

LK

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 19, 7:29 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Nelson, Ramsey, Walsh	61 min
Jul 19, 8:09 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Grand Forks	66 min
Jul 19, 8:34 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Steele	56 min
Jul 19, 8:53 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Traill	37 min
Jul 19, 9:37 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Cass, Traill	38 min
Jul 19, 10:00 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Ramsey	45 min
Jul 20, 2:48 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Ransom, Sargent	42 min
Jul 20, 4:13 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Sargent	47 min
Jul 20, 5:01 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Sargent	44 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Dakota, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.