Alert archive / North Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 152, NWS Grand Forks, ND

July 19, 2003Nelson County, Ramsey County, Walsh County, North Dakota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 19, 2003, 7:29 PM CDT for Nelson County, Ramsey County, Walsh County, North Dakota. It was in force for 61 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 19, 2003, 7:29 PM CDT (00:29 UTC)
Expired
Jul 19, 2003, 8:30 PM CDT
In force
61 min
Issued by
NWS Grand Forks, ND
Area
Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Nelson County, ND, Ramsey County, ND, Walsh County, ND

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 104 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:29 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

IssuedProductOfficeLasted
Jul 19, 5:30 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPC6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 00:00Z, 0.5 hours before the alert went out and 251 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Bismarck Municip, ND at 00:00Z on 2003-07-20Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 274 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Bismarck Municip, ND at 00:00Z on 2003-07-20The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 31 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
274 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-67 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
3216 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
44 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
31 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
159 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS53 KFGF 200029
SVRFGF
NDC063-071-099-200130-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
728 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

  NELSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...  
  EASTERN RAMSEY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND   
  WESTERN WALSH COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.

* UNTIL 830 PM CDT.

* AT 724 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE
  LEADING EDGE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 33
  MILES SOUTH OF LANGDON TO 27 MILES NORTHEAST OF DEVILS LAKE...
  MOVEMENT WAS TO THE SOUTH AT 30 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...

  LAWTON AT 730 PM...
  WHITMAN AT 745 PM...
  MICHIGAN AT 805 PM AND
  LAKOTA AT 805 PM.

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

LAT...LON 4850 9797 4853 9860 4791 9849 4788 9790

$$

RD/30

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 19, 3:20 PM CDT, 4 hours 9 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 19, 3:20 PM CDT, 4 hours 9 minutes before
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
320 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2003

THE ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT HAS KEEP US BUSY THE LAST FEW HOURS
AROUND PARK RAPIDS SEEMS TO NOW BE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST AND NO NEW
DEVELOPMENT SEEN UPSTREAM YET.  FOCUS BEYOND THIS ACTION WILL FOCUS
ON TSTM CHANCES WITH MAIN FRONT NOW ENTERING WRN MANITOBA INTO SE
SASK.

.SHORT TERM...
THE AFOREMENTIONED CANADIAN FRONT IS ASSOC WITH 80KT 250 MB JET THAT
IS NOW MOVING THRU SRN SASK INTO MANITOBA ON THE UNDERSIDE OF UPPER
LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE NRN PRAIRIE PROVINCES.  ATMOS AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT OVER ERN ND IS WELL CAPPED BUT HIGH DEW PTS REMAIN WITH 65 TO
70+ AND TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 80S.  TEMPS NEARING CONVECTIVE
TEMPS PER ETA SOUNDINGS AT 21Z..BUT SINCE TROUGH IS NOW IN MN NO
REAL FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT.  CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLD STORM NEXT FEW
HOURS BUT AFTER COORD WITH SPC FEEL BEST CHC FOR STORMS WILL AWAIT
ARRIVAL OF CANADIAN FRONT DUE TO ARRIVE OVERNIGHT AND EXIT
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES BY 12Z SUN.  DUE TO UNCERTAINITY OF
COVERAGE...KEPT ISOLD TSRA MENTION ALL ZONES.

.LONGER TERM...
WILL HAVE EARLY POP IN SE ND SUNDAY...THEN DRY IN ERN ND.  WILL
MAINTAIN CHC TSRA IN NW/WCNTRL MN COUNTIES EAST OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY AS COOLER 500MB TEMPS DROP DOWN IN THE AFTN AND EVE IN
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW AND VORT THAT WILL MOVING TOWARD THE MN
ARROWHEAD SUN EVENING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING IN DRY WEATHER
MON-WED AND LITTLE CHANCE WAS NEEDED FROM PREV FCSTS.

.EXTENDED...
LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US AND LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE
EASTERN US DEAMPLIFIES A BIT THROUGH THE PERIOD. ENSEMBLE MEAN
SUGGESTS THE PATTERN WILL BECOME ZONAL THAN IMPLIED BY THE LONGWAVE
FORECAST ESPECIALLY AFTER THURSDAY. NEW 120 HOURS 12Z GFS IS FASTER
AND MORE ZONAL THAN THE OLD 00Z RUN. 12Z GFS HAD THE SAME SPEED AS
THE ECMWF BUT WITH LOWER AMPLITUDE WITH THE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN US.
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE WAS DOING THE SAME TREND. WILL ADD A CHANCE OF
THUNDER FOR THURSDAY WITH THE FASTER SOLUTION.

FGF...NONE.

RIDDLE/HOPPES
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 19, 11:10 AM CDT, 8 hours 19 minutes before
MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-191815-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
1110 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTER
NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA BETWEEN 4 PM TODAY AND 3 AM
TONIGHT.

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO NORTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
THIS TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING EAST OF THE RED
RIVER...WITH A FEW OF THESE POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL.  THERE IS ALSO A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING.

THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION..A FEW OF THESE MAY BECOME SEVERE AS WELL WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL.  A STRONGER FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA
AND INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT.  THIS FRONT WILL
HAVE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND IS EXPECTED TO GIVE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.  A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXISTS AGAIN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 4 PM TODAY AND THROUGH THE
EVENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FGF/INDEX.HTML (ALL LOWER CASE)

RIDDLE

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 19, 2:21 PM CDT, 5 hours 8 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
221 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0215 PM    5 S PARK RAPIDS           MN   1.00 INCH HAIL
07/19/03   HUBBARD                        REPORTED BY TRAINED
                                          SPOTTER.

WJB
Local storm report, Jul 19, 3:30 PM CDT, 3 hours 59 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
330 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0300 PM    3 N OYLEN                 MN   .75 INCH HAIL
07/19/03   WADENA                         REPORTED BY TRAINED
                                          SPOTTER.

WJB
Local storm report, Jul 19, 6:38 PM CDT, 51 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
638 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0610 PM    2 S WALES                 ND   1.75 INCH HAIL
07/19/03   CAVALIER

0620 PM    4 W DRESDEN               ND   1.00 INCH HAIL
07/19/03   CAVALIER

0630 PM    1 W LANGDON               ND   1.00 INCH HAIL
07/19/03   CAVALIER                       REPORTED BY STATE RADIO.

WJB
Local storm report, Jul 19, 6:49 PM CDT, 40 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
649 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0645 PM    4 S LANGDON               ND   4.50 INCH HAIL
07/19/03   CAVALIER

WJB
Local storm report, Jul 19, 7:06 PM CDT, 23 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
706 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0650 PM    4 N NEKOMA                ND   2.00 INCH HAIL
07/19/03   CAVALIER

WJB
Local storm report, Jul 19, 7:16 PM CDT, 13 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
716 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0710 PM    FAIRDALE                  ND   1.75 INCH HAIL
07/19/03   WALSH                          REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

WJB

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 19, 8:09 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGFGrand Forks66 min
Jul 19, 8:34 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGFSteele56 min
Jul 19, 8:53 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGFTraill37 min
Jul 19, 9:37 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGFCass, Traill38 min
Jul 19, 10:00 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGFRamsey45 min
Jul 19, 10:24 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGFNelson51 min
Jul 20, 2:48 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGFRansom, Sargent42 min
Jul 20, 4:13 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGFSargent47 min
Jul 20, 5:01 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGFSargent44 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Dakota, 2003Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.