Alert archive / North Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 156, NWS Grand Forks, ND

July 19, 2003Cass County, Traill County, North Dakota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 19, 2003, 9:37 PM CDT for Cass County, Traill County, North Dakota. It was in force for 38 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 19, 2003, 9:37 PM CDT (02:37 UTC)
Expired
Jul 19, 2003, 10:15 PM CDT
In force
38 min
Issued by
NWS Grand Forks, ND
Area
Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Cass County, ND, Traill County, ND

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 50 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:39 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

IssuedProductOfficeLasted
Jul 19, 5:30 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPC6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Aberdeen, SD (KABR), launched 00:00Z, 2.6 hours before the alert went out and 265 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Aberdeen, SD at 00:00Z on 2003-07-20Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2126 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Aberdeen, SD at 00:00Z on 2003-07-20The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 35 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2126 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-46 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
2042 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
41 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
35 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
145 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
2.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS53 KFGF 200237
SVRFGF
NDC017-097-200315-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
937 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

  NORTHERN CASS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND
  SOUTHERN TRAILL COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.

* UNTIL 1015 PM CDT.

* AT 929 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF HUNTER...OR ABOUT 36 MILES
  NORTHWEST OF FARGO...MOVEMENT WAS TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...

  HUNTER AT 940 PM...
  ARTHUR AT 950 PM...
  GARDNER AT 955 PM AND
  AMENIA AT 1000 PM.

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

LAT...LON 4728 9695 4724 9747 4685 9732 4687 9685

$$

RD/30

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 19, 8:45 PM CDT, 52 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 19, 8:45 PM CDT, 52 minutes before
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
845 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2003

.CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL OVERVIEW...
01Z MSAS ANALYSIS DEPICTED PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM ARROWHEAD OF
MINNESOTA TO NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA WHILE PARENT COLD FRONT WAS
POISED FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA TO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED SOUTHEAST PUNCHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED 250MB 90KT JET MAX VICINITY OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA.
BOTH FEATURES WERE AIDING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND RESULTANT
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT IN TROPICAL AIRMASS ACROSS NORTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA.

.FORECAST DETAILS...
CURRENT JUICY AIRMASS IN PLACE/UPPER LEVEL JET INTERACTION AHEAD
OF IMPENDING COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN LINGERING CONVECTIVE
THREAT WITH SCATTERED SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH LATE EVENING.
BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION/TIMING OF FRONT WILL LINGER THUNDER THREAT
ACROSS FAR SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER SOME
UNCERTAINTY EXITS WITH RESPECT TO INTENSITY/AREAL COVERAGE IN
THOSE LOCATIONS LATER TONIGHT. WILL UPDATE ZONES RE-EVALUATE
CONVECTIVE THREAT AS EVENING PROGRESSES AND BETTER CONVECTIVE
TRENDS ARE ESTABLISHED.

FGF...NONE.

BERG
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 19, 11:10 AM CDT, 10 hours 27 minutes before
MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-191815-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
1110 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTER
NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA BETWEEN 4 PM TODAY AND 3 AM
TONIGHT.

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO NORTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
THIS TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING EAST OF THE RED
RIVER...WITH A FEW OF THESE POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL.  THERE IS ALSO A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING.

THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION..A FEW OF THESE MAY BECOME SEVERE AS WELL WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL.  A STRONGER FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA
AND INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT.  THIS FRONT WILL
HAVE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND IS EXPECTED TO GIVE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.  A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXISTS AGAIN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 4 PM TODAY AND THROUGH THE
EVENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FGF/INDEX.HTML (ALL LOWER CASE)

RIDDLE

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 19, 8:02 PM CDT, 1 hour 35 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
802 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0750 PM    4 N BROCKET               ND   1.00 INCH HAIL
07/19/03   RAMSEY

0750 PM    15 S ADAMS                ND   1.75 INCH HAIL
07/19/03   WALSH

WJB
Local storm report, Jul 19, 8:09 PM CDT, 1 hour 28 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
809 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0755 PM    3 SE WHITMAN              ND   1.00 INCH HAIL
07/19/03   NELSON

0805 PM    3 NE PETERSBURG           ND   .88 INCH HAIL
07/19/03   NELSON                         REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

WJB
Local storm report, Jul 19, 8:41 PM CDT, 56 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
841 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0825 PM    3 S NIAGARA               ND   .75 INCH HAIL
07/19/03   GRAND FORKS

0830 PM    3.5 NW LOGAN CENTER       ND   .75 INCH HAIL
07/19/03   GRAND FORKS

WJB
Local storm report, Jul 19, 8:43 PM CDT, 54 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
843 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0825 PM    3 S NIAGARA               ND   .75 INCH HAIL
07/19/03   GRAND FORKS

0830 PM    3.5 NW LOGAN CENTER       ND   .88 INCH HAIL
07/19/03   GRAND FORKS

WJB
Local storm report, Jul 19, 8:57 PM CDT, 40 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
857 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0845 PM    6 W NORTHWOOD             ND   .75 INCH HAIL
07/19/03   GRAND FORKS

WJB
Local storm report, Jul 19, 9:17 PM CDT, 20 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
917 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0850 PM    9 ENE SHARON              ND   70 MPH TSTORM WIND
07/19/03   STEELE                         REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

0900 PM    14 NE FINLEY              ND   1.00 INCH HAIL
07/19/03   STEELE                         REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

WJB

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 19, 7:29 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGFNelson, Ramsey, Walsh61 min
Jul 19, 8:09 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGFGrand Forks66 min
Jul 19, 8:34 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGFSteele56 min
Jul 19, 8:53 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGFTraill37 min
Jul 19, 10:00 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGFRamsey45 min
Jul 19, 10:24 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGFNelson51 min
Jul 20, 2:48 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGFRansom, Sargent42 min
Jul 20, 4:13 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGFSargent47 min
Jul 20, 5:01 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGFSargent44 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Dakota, 2003Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.