Alert archive / North Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 154, NWS Grand Forks, ND
NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 19, 2003, 8:34 PM CDT for Steele County, North Dakota. It was in force for 56 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 19, 2003, 8:34 PM CDT (01:34 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 19, 2003, 9:30 PM CDT
- In force
- 56 min
- Issued by
- NWS Grand Forks, ND
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
County Steele County, ND
The radar
The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 27 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:34 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The watch it was issued in
The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.
| Issued | Product | Office | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 19, 5:30 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | 6 hr |
The nearest sounding before it
Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 00:00Z, 1.6 hours before the alert went out and 244 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 274 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -67 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 3216 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 44 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 31 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 159 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.4
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WUUS53 KFGF 200134 SVRFGF NDC091-200230- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS 833 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2003 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... STEELE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. * UNTIL 930 PM CDT. * AT 829 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF SHARON...OR ABOUT 35 MILES WEST OF GRAND FORKS...MOVEMENT WAS TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THIS STORM HAS A LONG HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL IN NELSON AND WESTERN GRAND FORKS COUNTIES. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... SHARON AT 840 PM... FINLEY AT 850 PM AND GOLDEN LAKE AT 855 PM REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING. LAT...LON 4766 9751 4766 9795 4734 9792 4733 9750 $$ RD/30
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 19, 3:20 PM CDT, 5 hours 14 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 19, 3:20 PM CDT, 5 hours 14 minutes before
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND 320 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2003 THE ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT HAS KEEP US BUSY THE LAST FEW HOURS AROUND PARK RAPIDS SEEMS TO NOW BE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST AND NO NEW DEVELOPMENT SEEN UPSTREAM YET. FOCUS BEYOND THIS ACTION WILL FOCUS ON TSTM CHANCES WITH MAIN FRONT NOW ENTERING WRN MANITOBA INTO SE SASK. .SHORT TERM... THE AFOREMENTIONED CANADIAN FRONT IS ASSOC WITH 80KT 250 MB JET THAT IS NOW MOVING THRU SRN SASK INTO MANITOBA ON THE UNDERSIDE OF UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE NRN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. ATMOS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT OVER ERN ND IS WELL CAPPED BUT HIGH DEW PTS REMAIN WITH 65 TO 70+ AND TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 80S. TEMPS NEARING CONVECTIVE TEMPS PER ETA SOUNDINGS AT 21Z..BUT SINCE TROUGH IS NOW IN MN NO REAL FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLD STORM NEXT FEW HOURS BUT AFTER COORD WITH SPC FEEL BEST CHC FOR STORMS WILL AWAIT ARRIVAL OF CANADIAN FRONT DUE TO ARRIVE OVERNIGHT AND EXIT SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES BY 12Z SUN. DUE TO UNCERTAINITY OF COVERAGE...KEPT ISOLD TSRA MENTION ALL ZONES. .LONGER TERM... WILL HAVE EARLY POP IN SE ND SUNDAY...THEN DRY IN ERN ND. WILL MAINTAIN CHC TSRA IN NW/WCNTRL MN COUNTIES EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY AS COOLER 500MB TEMPS DROP DOWN IN THE AFTN AND EVE IN ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW AND VORT THAT WILL MOVING TOWARD THE MN ARROWHEAD SUN EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING IN DRY WEATHER MON-WED AND LITTLE CHANCE WAS NEEDED FROM PREV FCSTS. .EXTENDED... LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US AND LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN US DEAMPLIFIES A BIT THROUGH THE PERIOD. ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGESTS THE PATTERN WILL BECOME ZONAL THAN IMPLIED BY THE LONGWAVE FORECAST ESPECIALLY AFTER THURSDAY. NEW 120 HOURS 12Z GFS IS FASTER AND MORE ZONAL THAN THE OLD 00Z RUN. 12Z GFS HAD THE SAME SPEED AS THE ECMWF BUT WITH LOWER AMPLITUDE WITH THE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN US. CANADIAN ENSEMBLE WAS DOING THE SAME TREND. WILL ADD A CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THURSDAY WITH THE FASTER SOLUTION. FGF...NONE. RIDDLE/HOPPES
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 19, 11:10 AM CDT, 9 hours 24 minutes before
MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024- 026>030-038-039-049-052>054-191815- HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS 1110 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2003 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTER NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA BETWEEN 4 PM TODAY AND 3 AM TONIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THIS TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING EAST OF THE RED RIVER...WITH A FEW OF THESE POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION..A FEW OF THESE MAY BECOME SEVERE AS WELL WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. A STRONGER FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA AND INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND IS EXPECTED TO GIVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS AGAIN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 4 PM TODAY AND THROUGH THE EVENING. FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FGF/INDEX.HTML (ALL LOWER CASE) RIDDLE
In the hours before
Local storm report, Jul 19, 7:06 PM CDT, 1 hour 28 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
706 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2003
TIME(CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE ...EVENT/REMARKS...
....COUNTY LOCATION....
0650 PM 4 N NEKOMA ND 2.00 INCH HAIL
07/19/03 CAVALIER
WJBLocal storm report, Jul 19, 7:16 PM CDT, 1 hour 18 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
716 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2003
TIME(CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE ...EVENT/REMARKS...
....COUNTY LOCATION....
0710 PM FAIRDALE ND 1.75 INCH HAIL
07/19/03 WALSH REPORTED BY PUBLIC.
WJBLocal storm report, Jul 19, 7:37 PM CDT, 57 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
737 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2003
TIME(CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE ...EVENT/REMARKS...
....COUNTY LOCATION....
0726 PM EDMORE ND 1.75 INCH HAIL
07/19/03 RAMSEY
0732 PM 2 N LAWTON ND 1.75 INCH HAIL
07/19/03 RAMSEY
WJBLocal storm report, Jul 19, 7:49 PM CDT, 45 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
749 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2003
TIME(CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE ...EVENT/REMARKS...
....COUNTY LOCATION....
0738 PM 8 S ADAMS ND 1.00 INCH HAIL
07/19/03 WALSH
0740 PM 9 SW LANKIN ND 1.50 INCH HAIL
07/19/03 WALSH
WJBLocal storm report, Jul 19, 8:02 PM CDT, 32 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
802 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2003
TIME(CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE ...EVENT/REMARKS...
....COUNTY LOCATION....
0750 PM 4 N BROCKET ND 1.00 INCH HAIL
07/19/03 RAMSEY
0750 PM 15 S ADAMS ND 1.75 INCH HAIL
07/19/03 WALSH
WJBLocal storm report, Jul 19, 8:09 PM CDT, 25 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
809 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2003
TIME(CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE ...EVENT/REMARKS...
....COUNTY LOCATION....
0755 PM 3 SE WHITMAN ND 1.00 INCH HAIL
07/19/03 NELSON
0805 PM 3 NE PETERSBURG ND .88 INCH HAIL
07/19/03 NELSON REPORTED BY PUBLIC.
WJBThe office that day
Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 19, 7:29 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Nelson, Ramsey, Walsh | 61 min |
| Jul 19, 8:09 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Grand Forks | 66 min |
| Jul 19, 8:53 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Traill | 37 min |
| Jul 19, 9:37 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Cass, Traill | 38 min |
| Jul 19, 10:00 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Ramsey | 45 min |
| Jul 19, 10:24 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Nelson | 51 min |
| Jul 20, 2:48 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Ransom, Sargent | 42 min |
| Jul 20, 4:13 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Sargent | 47 min |
| Jul 20, 5:01 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Sargent | 44 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Dakota, 2003Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.