Alert archive / Minnesota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 114, NWS Grand Forks, ND

July 6, 2003Beltrami County, Hubbard County, Minnesota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 6, 2003, 5:58 PM CDT for Beltrami County, Hubbard County, Minnesota. It was in force for 62 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 6, 2003, 5:58 PM CDT (22:58 UTC)
Expired: Jul 6, 2003, 7:00 PM CDT
In force: 62 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Forks, ND
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Beltrami County, MN, Hubbard County, MN

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jul 6, 2:20 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	8 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Minneapolis, MN (KMPX), launched 12:00Z, 11.0 hours before the alert went out and 321 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 735 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -63 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1169 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 11 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -24 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -10 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

567 
WUUS53 KFGF 062258
SVRFGF
MNC007-057-070000-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
559 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

  SOUTHERN BELTRAMI COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND   
  HUBBARD COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT.

* AT 551 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE
  LEADING EDGE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 40
  MILES NORTHEAST OF BEMIDJI TO 13 MILES WEST OF BEMIDJI...MOVEMENT
  WAS TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...

  WILTON AT 605 PM...
  TURTLE RIVER AT 610 PM...
  BLACKDUCK AT 615 PM AND
  BEMIDJI AT 620 PM.

MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND 
WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH.

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

LAT...LON 4807 9440 4751 9517 4730 9515 4718 9463
          4781 9383

$$

08/84

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 6, 3:30 PM CDT, 2 hours 28 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 6, 3:30 PM CDT, 2 hours 28 minutes before

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
330 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2003

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION. CURRENT IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY HAS AREA OF COOLING TOPS IN E ND AND NW MN. LATEST TO S
SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS TROF EXTENDING ALONG A ROX TO TVF TO JMS LINE.
WHEN COMPARING INITIALIZATION CONDITIONS TO MODELS...ETA AND GFS
SIMILAR...SO USED COMBINATION FOR FORECAST. SURFACE TROF MOVING E
THIS EVENING. WITH CAP DIMINISHING OVER AREA...A FEW SEVERE STORMS
DEVELOPED IN FAR NE MN COUNTIES...WITH A LINE OF TOWERING CUMULUS
CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TROF. CONSEQUENTLY...TORNADO WATCH
WAS ISSUED FOR THE AREA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TROF. LARGE
INSTABILITY REMAINS...THE AREA IS LOOSING ITS CAP AND THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS WORKING INTO THE SYSTEM. FORECAST HAS ALREADY
BEEN UPDATED FOR THIS WATCH. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS OVER
AREA WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ON MON. ADD SOME DAYTIME HEATING AND
EXPECT SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE N 1/2 OF THE
AREA. SURFACE HIGH TRAVERSES AREA ON TUE...WITH NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING INTO N PLAINS ON TUE NIGHT...INCLUDED CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR DVL AREA AND SE ND AREA INTO WED MORNING.

EXTENDED...ENSEMBLES INDICATE MEAN RIDGE OVER N PLAINS EARLY
IN PERIOD WILL TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FLOW BY NEXT WEEKEND. HARD
TO TIME SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE OVER RIDGE WED NIGHT INTO THU...WHICH
MAY BRING SOME CONVECTION THROUGH REGION. FRI SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDER SAT/SAT NIGHT. WILL KEEP SUN DRY FOR
NOW...WITH MINIMAL CONFIDENCE TO INTRODUCE ANY PRECIP. TEMPS TO
REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH PERIOD...WITH NO MAJOR
COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH AREA.

.FGF...TORNADO WATCH ALL BUT NE ND AND EXTREME NW MN UNTIL 10 PM.

NG/DJK

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 6, 7:12 AM CDT, 10 hours 46 minutes before

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-061400-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
712 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING

A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
THE MODERATE RISK WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR FORMAN
NORTH DAKOTA TO FARGO TO WADENA MINNESOTA. LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING
WINDS AND SOME TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED. THE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
LIKELY AFTER 3 PM.

ELSEWHERE A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF
A LINE FROM OAKES NORTH DAKOTA TO HALLOCK MINNESOTA. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ANYTIME AFTER 1 PM AND SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

A COLD FRONT IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA TO SOUTH DAKOTA BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING. WARM MOIST AIR WILL
TRANSPORT NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR NEAR THE FRONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

HOPPES

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 6, 2:21 PM CDT, 3 hours 37 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
221 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0208 PM    11 S BAUDETTE             MN   .75 INCH HAIL
07/06/03   LAKE OF THE WOODS              REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT.

DPORTER

Local storm report, Jul 6, 2:41 PM CDT, 3 hours 17 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
241 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0215 PM    10 SE BAUDETTE            MN   .75 INCH HAIL
07/06/03   LAKE OF THE WOODS              REPORTED BY TRAINED
                                          SPOTTER.

DPORTER

Local storm report, Jul 6, 5:29 PM CDT, 29 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
529 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0511 PM    REDBY                     MN   1.00 INCH HAIL
07/06/03   BELTRAMI

Local storm report, Jul 6, 5:48 PM CDT, 10 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
548 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0535 PM    BAGLEY                    MN   1.75 INCH HAIL
07/06/03   CLEARWATER

0537 PM    6 S SAUM                  MN   1.00 INCH HAIL
07/06/03   BELTRAMI

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 6, 3:45 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Polk	45 min
Jul 6, 4:20 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Red Lake	40 min
Jul 6, 1:29 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Lake of the Woods, Roseau	46 min
Jul 6, 2:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Lake of the Woods	30 min
Jul 6, 3:14 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Lake of the Woods	31 min
Jul 6, 4:55 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Beltrami	65 min
Jul 6, 5:09 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Clearwater	66 min
Jul 6, 5:15 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Beltrami	45 min
Jul 6, 6:50 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Otter Tail	40 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Minnesota, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.