Severe Thunderstorm Warning 112, NWS Grand Forks, ND

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
330 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2003

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION. CURRENT IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY HAS AREA OF COOLING TOPS IN E ND AND NW MN. LATEST TO S
SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS TROF EXTENDING ALONG A ROX TO TVF TO JMS LINE.
WHEN COMPARING INITIALIZATION CONDITIONS TO MODELS...ETA AND GFS
SIMILAR...SO USED COMBINATION FOR FORECAST. SURFACE TROF MOVING E
THIS EVENING. WITH CAP DIMINISHING OVER AREA...A FEW SEVERE STORMS
DEVELOPED IN FAR NE MN COUNTIES...WITH A LINE OF TOWERING CUMULUS
CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TROF. CONSEQUENTLY...TORNADO WATCH
WAS ISSUED FOR THE AREA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TROF. LARGE
INSTABILITY REMAINS...THE AREA IS LOOSING ITS CAP AND THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS WORKING INTO THE SYSTEM. FORECAST HAS ALREADY
BEEN UPDATED FOR THIS WATCH. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS OVER
AREA WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ON MON. ADD SOME DAYTIME HEATING AND
EXPECT SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE N 1/2 OF THE
AREA. SURFACE HIGH TRAVERSES AREA ON TUE...WITH NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING INTO N PLAINS ON TUE NIGHT...INCLUDED CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR DVL AREA AND SE ND AREA INTO WED MORNING.

EXTENDED...ENSEMBLES INDICATE MEAN RIDGE OVER N PLAINS EARLY
IN PERIOD WILL TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FLOW BY NEXT WEEKEND. HARD
TO TIME SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE OVER RIDGE WED NIGHT INTO THU...WHICH
MAY BRING SOME CONVECTION THROUGH REGION. FRI SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDER SAT/SAT NIGHT. WILL KEEP SUN DRY FOR
NOW...WITH MINIMAL CONFIDENCE TO INTRODUCE ANY PRECIP. TEMPS TO
REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH PERIOD...WITH NO MAJOR
COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH AREA.

.FGF...TORNADO WATCH ALL BUT NE ND AND EXTREME NW MN UNTIL 10 PM.

NG/DJK

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-061400-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
712 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING

A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
THE MODERATE RISK WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR FORMAN
NORTH DAKOTA TO FARGO TO WADENA MINNESOTA. LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING
WINDS AND SOME TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED. THE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
LIKELY AFTER 3 PM.

ELSEWHERE A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF
A LINE FROM OAKES NORTH DAKOTA TO HALLOCK MINNESOTA. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ANYTIME AFTER 1 PM AND SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

A COLD FRONT IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA TO SOUTH DAKOTA BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING. WARM MOIST AIR WILL
TRANSPORT NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR NEAR THE FRONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

HOPPES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
221 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0208 PM    11 S BAUDETTE             MN   .75 INCH HAIL
07/06/03   LAKE OF THE WOODS              REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT.

DPORTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
241 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0215 PM    10 SE BAUDETTE            MN   .75 INCH HAIL
07/06/03   LAKE OF THE WOODS              REPORTED BY TRAINED
                                          SPOTTER.

DPORTER