Alert archive / Minnesota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS Grand Forks, ND

July 6, 2003Lake of the Woods County, Minnesota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 6, 2003, 3:14 PM CDT for Lake of the Woods County, Minnesota. It was in force for 31 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 6, 2003, 3:14 PM CDT (20:14 UTC)
Expired: Jul 6, 2003, 3:45 PM CDT
In force: 31 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Forks, ND
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Lake of the Woods County, MN

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 247 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:15 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Minneapolis, MN (KMPX), launched 12:00Z, 8.2 hours before the alert went out and 430 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 735 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -63 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1169 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 11 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -24 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -10 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

127 
WUUS53 KFGF 062014
SVRFGF
MNC077-062045-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
314 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

  EAST CENTRAL LAKE OF THE WOODS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

* UNTIL 345 PM CDT.

* AT 310 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF CLEMENTSON...OR ABOUT 65
  MILES EAST OF ROSEAU...MOVEMENT WAS TO THE NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

LAT...LON 4867 9469 4848 9447 4865 9414 4890 9438

$$
8

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 6, 10:25 AM CDT, 4 hours 49 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 6, 10:25 AM CDT, 4 hours 49 minutes before

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1025 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2003

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
HAS MOST OF AREA SUNNY WITH SOME MID CLOUDS MOVING IN THE DVL AREA.
LATEST MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
BETWEEN HCO AND ROX WITH TROF EXTENDING ALONG A GFK TO JMS TO MBG
LINE. WHEN COMPARING INITIALIZATION CONDITIONS TO MODELS...ETA AND
GFS SIMILAR...BUT HAVE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES. SURFACE TROF
CONTINUES SLOW E MOVEMENT THROUGH AREA TODAY AS GOOD INSOLATION
PROVIDES HEATING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO PULL IN
MOISTURE INTO AREA. WITH LIS ALREADY DOWN TO -7 OVER NE ND AND GOOD
SURFACE MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE OCCURRING ALONG TROF...JUST
WAITING FOR BETTER UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND MORE SURFACE HEATING
BEFORE STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO GO. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING CAPES
FROM 1500 TO 3000 J/KG...GOOD SHEAR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND COLD
AIR COMING IN ALOFT RESULTING IN RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING LEVELS...
ANTICIPATE PRETTY EXPLOSIVE STORM DEVELOPMENT WHICH WOULD QUICKLY GO
SEVERE. CURRENT FORECAST NOT MENTIONING POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE...SO
WILL ADD TO ZONES. WHEN LOOKING AT TEMP AND DEWPOINT GRIDS COMPARED
TO MSAS...SEE THAT OBSERVATIONS ARE HEATING UP FASTER AND THAT THE
DEWPOINTS IN THE GRIDS ARE TOO LOW. CONSEQUENTLY...WILL NEED TO MAKE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS...BUT OVERALL RESULT WILL BE MINOR CHANGES
TO TEXT FORECAST.

.FGF...NONE

NG

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 6, 7:12 AM CDT, 8 hours 2 minutes before

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-061400-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
712 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING

A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
THE MODERATE RISK WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR FORMAN
NORTH DAKOTA TO FARGO TO WADENA MINNESOTA. LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING
WINDS AND SOME TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED. THE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
LIKELY AFTER 3 PM.

ELSEWHERE A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF
A LINE FROM OAKES NORTH DAKOTA TO HALLOCK MINNESOTA. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ANYTIME AFTER 1 PM AND SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

A COLD FRONT IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA TO SOUTH DAKOTA BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING. WARM MOIST AIR WILL
TRANSPORT NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR NEAR THE FRONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

HOPPES

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 6, 10:16 AM CDT, 4 hours 58 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
1016 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0400 AM    4 SE DAVIDSON             MN   1.00 INCH HAIL
07/06/03   POLK                           REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

0430 AM    1 N HUOT                  MN   .88 INCH HAIL
07/06/03   RED LAKE                       REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

DPORTER

Local storm report, Jul 6, 2:21 PM CDT, 53 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
221 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0208 PM    11 S BAUDETTE             MN   .75 INCH HAIL
07/06/03   LAKE OF THE WOODS              REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT.

DPORTER

Local storm report, Jul 6, 2:41 PM CDT, 33 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
241 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0215 PM    10 SE BAUDETTE            MN   .75 INCH HAIL
07/06/03   LAKE OF THE WOODS              REPORTED BY TRAINED
                                          SPOTTER.

DPORTER

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 6, 3:45 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Polk	45 min
Jul 6, 4:20 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Red Lake	40 min
Jul 6, 1:29 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Lake of the Woods, Roseau	46 min
Jul 6, 2:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Lake of the Woods	30 min
Jul 6, 4:55 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Beltrami	65 min
Jul 6, 5:09 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Clearwater	66 min
Jul 6, 5:15 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Beltrami	45 min
Jul 6, 5:58 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Beltrami, Hubbard	62 min
Jul 6, 6:50 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Otter Tail	40 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Minnesota, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.