Severe Thunderstorm Warning 109, NWS Grand Forks, ND

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1025 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2003

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
HAS MOST OF AREA SUNNY WITH SOME MID CLOUDS MOVING IN THE DVL AREA.
LATEST MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
BETWEEN HCO AND ROX WITH TROF EXTENDING ALONG A GFK TO JMS TO MBG
LINE. WHEN COMPARING INITIALIZATION CONDITIONS TO MODELS...ETA AND
GFS SIMILAR...BUT HAVE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES. SURFACE TROF
CONTINUES SLOW E MOVEMENT THROUGH AREA TODAY AS GOOD INSOLATION
PROVIDES HEATING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO PULL IN
MOISTURE INTO AREA. WITH LIS ALREADY DOWN TO -7 OVER NE ND AND GOOD
SURFACE MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE OCCURRING ALONG TROF...JUST
WAITING FOR BETTER UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND MORE SURFACE HEATING
BEFORE STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO GO. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING CAPES
FROM 1500 TO 3000 J/KG...GOOD SHEAR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND COLD
AIR COMING IN ALOFT RESULTING IN RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING LEVELS...
ANTICIPATE PRETTY EXPLOSIVE STORM DEVELOPMENT WHICH WOULD QUICKLY GO
SEVERE. CURRENT FORECAST NOT MENTIONING POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE...SO
WILL ADD TO ZONES. WHEN LOOKING AT TEMP AND DEWPOINT GRIDS COMPARED
TO MSAS...SEE THAT OBSERVATIONS ARE HEATING UP FASTER AND THAT THE
DEWPOINTS IN THE GRIDS ARE TOO LOW. CONSEQUENTLY...WILL NEED TO MAKE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS...BUT OVERALL RESULT WILL BE MINOR CHANGES
TO TEXT FORECAST.

.FGF...NONE

NG

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-061400-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
712 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING

A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
THE MODERATE RISK WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR FORMAN
NORTH DAKOTA TO FARGO TO WADENA MINNESOTA. LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING
WINDS AND SOME TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED. THE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
LIKELY AFTER 3 PM.

ELSEWHERE A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF
A LINE FROM OAKES NORTH DAKOTA TO HALLOCK MINNESOTA. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ANYTIME AFTER 1 PM AND SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

A COLD FRONT IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA TO SOUTH DAKOTA BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING. WARM MOIST AIR WILL
TRANSPORT NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR NEAR THE FRONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

HOPPES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
1016 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0400 AM    4 SE DAVIDSON             MN   1.00 INCH HAIL
07/06/03   POLK                           REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

0430 AM    1 N HUOT                  MN   .88 INCH HAIL
07/06/03   RED LAKE                       REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

DPORTER