Flash Flood Warning 42, NWS San Angelo, TX

000 
WGUS74 KSJT 051512
FFSSJT
TXC267-319-051645-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1010 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2002

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KIMBLE COUNTY AND 
MASON COUNTY UNTIL 1200 PM CDT...

AT 1010 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED THAT UP TO 2 AND ONE HALF 
INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN KIMBLE COUNTY 
IN THE LAST 2 HOURS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL UP TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY IN 
SOME AREAS OF EASTERN KIMBLE COUNTY AND ALL OF MASON COUNTY BY 1200 
PM CDT. THIS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE 
FLOODING OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

AT 1000 AM CDT...THE TEXAS DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION IN JUNCTION
REPORTED SEVERAL ROADS CLOSED IN KIMBLE COUNTY. HIGHWAY 377 SOUTH 
FROM JUNCTION TO ROCKSPRINGS IS CLOSED AS IS HIGHWAY 290 EAST TO 
HARPER. ALSO...FM 2169...479...AND 385 ARE CLOSED. ALL THESE ROADS 
HAVE WATER OVER LOW WATER CROSSINGS.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT. DO NOT CAMP
NEAR RIVERS...STREAMS...OR LOW LYING AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING. HEAVY
RAIN FROM UPSTREAM LOCATIONS WILL PRODUCE LARGE AND RAPID RISES TO
RIVERS AND CREEKS. MOVE QUICKLY TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD
WATERS.

MOST DEATHS IN FLASH FLOODING OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO
CROSS ANY LOCATION WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. NEVER TRY TO 
CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT.

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
249 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2002

SO THIS IS JULY IN WEST TEXAS   MORE RAIN IS ON THE WAY

FOR THE PAST WEEK OUR ATTENTION HAS BEEN FOCUSED ON THE SHEAR AXIS
AND ASSOCIATED RAINS THAT CAUSED THE TERRIBLE FLOODING TO OUR EAST.
HAD BEEN THINKING THAT WOULD MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA AND PRODUCE
RAINS...WHILE WE HAVE SEEN THE IMPACT OF THAT SYSTEM...TONIGHT A
WHOLE NEW FOCUS HAS CHANGED OUR ATTENTION FURTHER WEST.

AN UPPER LOW ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PLAY A ROLE
IN OUR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THIS LOW HAS BEEN VERY
EFFECTIVE AT PRODUCING THUNDERSTORM OVER NEW MEXICO.  REMNANTS OF
THE NEW MEXICO STORMS ARE TRAVERSING WEST TEXAS TONIGHT.  IT APPEARS
THAT WITH SUFFICIENT SURFACE INFLOW...THOSE STORMS SHOULD PUSH
ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY...THEREFORE WILL PLACE RELATIVELY
HIGH POPS TODAY.

FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AND
CONTINUE TO SPIT OUT PIECES OF ENERGY TO PRODUCE TSTRMS...EACH
MOVING OUR WAY.  THIS WILL REQUIRE POPS IN ALMOST EVERY FORECAST
PERIOD...IT WILL ALSO PROVIDE THE ENERGY NEEDED TO KICK OUT THE
PESKY SHEAR AXIS THAT HAS PERSISTED OVER SOUTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

WITH MODELS SHOWING CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...THE LOW
REMAINS IN THE SOUTHWEST...THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH TAKE HOLD WELL
TO OUR NORTHWEST.  THAT PLACES WCNTRL TX UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ...SO
ALAS CHANCES OF A COLD FRONT AND CONTINUED CONVECTION REMAIN IN OUR
FUTURE.  WITH ALL THAT SAID...WILL MAKE WHOLESALE CHANGES TO THE
EXTENDED AND INCLUDE CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGHOUT AND COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS...YUP ITS NOT A TYPICAL JULY FORECAST...BUT IT MAY BE
OUR CHANCE TO FILL SOME RESERVOIRS.  MAY NOT BE A DROUGHT
BUSTER...BUT IT AINT GOING TO HURT.

AT THIS POINT...AM NOT SURE WHAT I WILL DO WITH ANY FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES...OUR EASTERN COUNTIES HAVE BEEN HAMMERED OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...HOWEVER NOT MUCH RAIN THERE OVERNIGHT...SINCE THE
MAIN THREAT FOR HEAVIER RAIN TODAY APPEARS TO BE IN OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES ...MAY HOLD OFF ON ANY WATCHES...BUT WILL RESERVE THE RIGHT
TO MAKE LAST MINUTE CHANGES.  OKAY..LATE DECISION...LOOKING AT THE
RAIN MOVING INTO OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...WILL GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST.

ABI 85/70/88/70  5432
SJT 86/70/88/70  6422
JCT 86/70/90/70  6322

.SJT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY FOR
MASON...MENARD...KIMBLE...MCCULLOCH...SAN SABA...BROWN AND COLEMAN
COUNTIES.

25

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-051500-

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
600 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2002

...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TODAY...

A VERY MOIST...TROPICAL AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS. THIS AIRMASS...COMBINED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH
EASTERN TEXAS...HAS ALREADY PRODUCED WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HEARTLAND AND NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY THIS
MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REST OF THE REGION WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE TROPICAL NATURE OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN A VERY
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG
AND EAST OF A JUNCTION...MENARD ... BRADY LINE.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS AND OUTLOOKS FROM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES ACROSS TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...AND NEW
MEXICO.

04