Severe Thunderstorm Warning 216, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
246 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2002

BIGGEST CHALLENGE WITH THIS PACKAGE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR NEXT ROUND
OF SEVERE WX STARTING LATE THIS MORNING. CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AT EARLY MORNING CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST.

STRONG COLD FRONT ALONG WITH IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS WILL CROSS
THE CWA STARTING LATE THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE FRONT TO ENTER THE
EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AROUND 10 AM AND EXIT THE
SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS AROUND 8 OR 9 PM. 50 TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL
JET...100+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET...STRONG COLD FRONT...SFC DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6 TO 7 DEGREES
C/KM...WILL ALL COMBINE TO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS TODAY.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
STORM MOVEMENT TO THE NORTHEAST AT 40 TO 50 MPH. ALSO THE WIND SHEAR
PROFILE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES AND/OR BOW ECHOES PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT WIND
DAMAGE. FEEL LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR
OVER THE SE TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA...BUT SINCE SPC HAS ALL BUT THREE
OF OUR EXTREME WESTERN COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT RISK OR HIGHER
TODAY...WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IN ALL ZONES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION
WILL USHER MUCH COOLER AIR BACK INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THURSDAY. WILL MAKE NO
CHANGES AT THIS TIME BEYOND THE 4TH PERIOD (MONDAY NIGHT).

FWC/MAV MOS NUMBERS SIMILAR SO FOLLOWED CLOSELY.

.PAH...NONE.

PACKETT

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-111100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1230 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

...THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WITH
ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON...

.DAY ONE...
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON
IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE RISK OF WIDESPREAD WIND
DAMAGE AND STRONG TORNADOES IS HIGHEST OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY...WHERE
THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. ELSEWHERE...A MODERATE RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST
INDIANA...AS WELL AS EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. TORNADO WATCHES
HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE REGION. A LINE OF STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS WAS FORMING ALONG THE FRONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST...PASSING ACROSS THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND EAST OF HOPKINSVILLE BY MID
EVENING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER HAVE ALLOWED SUNSHINE TO WARM
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S...CREATING PLENTY OF INSTABILITY.
WIND FIELDS ALOFT ARE VERY STRONG...FAVORING ORGANIZED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUESTED WHERE IT HAS NOT ALREADY
BEEN REQUESTED. ALL PERSONS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST WATCH
AND WARNING INFORMATION...AND REVIEW THEIR TORNADO SAFETY
PROCEDURES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

YORK

ILZ084-MOZ076-101945-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
112 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2002

...STRONG STORM CROSSING MISSISSIPPI RIVER...

A STRONG STORM IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM
PERRY COUNTY MISSOURI...TOWARD GORHAM ILLINOIS. THIS STORM HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS...ONE HALF INCH HAIL AND VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY AND BECOME SEVERE AS IT
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH TOWARD ELKVILLE.

IF YOU LIVE IN JACKSON COUNTY REMAIN ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING
CONDITIONS. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM CST.