Alert archive / Kentucky / Flash Flood Warnings in 2002

Flash Flood Warning 56, NWS Paducah, KY

November 10, 2002Union County, Kentucky

NWS Paducah, KY issued this flash flood warning at Nov 10, 2002, 1:35 AM CST for Union County, Kentucky. It was in force for 3 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Nov 10, 2002, 1:35 AM CST (07:35 UTC)
Expired: Nov 10, 2002, 4:30 AM CST
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: NWS Paducah, KY
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Union County, KY

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 00:00Z, 7.6 hours before the alert went out and 210 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1360 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 42 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 286 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 401 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS53 KPAH 100735
FFWPAH
KYC225-101030-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
132 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  UNION COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY

* UNTIL 430 AM CST

...HEAVY RAIN

* AT 132 AM CST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED   
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE WARNED AREA.  EVENING 
RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES WAS INDICATED BY DOPPLER RADAR OVER 
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN UNION COUNTY...INCLUDING GROVE CENTER.  
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS 
UNION COUNTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.  

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE 
DANGERS OF FLASH FLOODS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.
VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED. MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND IMMEDIATELY.

LAT...LON 3776 8781 3760 8784 3758 8811 3775 8805

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Nov 9, 1:48 PM CST, 11 hours 47 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 9, 1:48 PM CST, 11 hours 47 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
148 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2002

SEVERAL CHALLENGES WITH THE PACKAGE...CONVECTION/SEVERITY TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW...OVERALL TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND WINDS.

12 UTC UPPER AIR MAPS SHOW SEVERAL SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
AT 500MB. THE ONE OVER TEXAS WILL BE OUR MAIN CONCERN
TONIGHT...ANOTHER OVER MONTANA...WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO THE
PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY. 170KT JET AT 250 MB WAS SEEN OVER THE
ROCKIES. AT 850...THE MOISTURE AND FLOW SUGGEST THE DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE TO OUR EAST WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE 70 DEGREE
DEWPOINTS WERE ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH MID 50S ALREADY HERE.
GRADIENT AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW PRODUCING WIND GUST OVER 30 MPH IN THE
CWA.

PREFER COMBINATION OF RUC AND AVN MODELS FOR THIS PACKAGE.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH EARLY THIS EVENING AT THE
SURFACE AND ISENTROPICALLY ALONG THE 300K SURFACE. THIS MOISTURE
WILL AID IN THE DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE...HOWEVER...18 UTC
LAPS SOUNDING HAS A PRETTY LARGE CAP. WITH THE HIGH SHEAR ONLY A
LITTLE INSTABILITY IS NEEDED TO GET THUNDERSTORMS GOING. WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE OVER THE WEST AND LIKELY EAST TONIGHT. STORM
RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES FORECAST TO BE NEAR 600 THIS EVENING OVER
THE EASTERN HALF...SO ROTATION IS LIKELY ONCE STORMS START. WILL
KEEP MENTION OF SEVERE.

AS FIRST WAVE EXITS THE AREA TONIGHT...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL END BY MIDNIGHT...BUT MAY LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS.
SWODY2 HAS US IN SLIGHT...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT COLD FRONT
WILL BE ALONG A BOONVILLE INDIANA TO MAYFIELD KENTUCKY LINE BY 18Z
AND SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY 21Z. WILL END PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY.

RIDGING SETS UP FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY AS COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. MRF, ENSEMBLES
AND ECMWF ALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS FEATURE. CURRENT FORECAST
HAS CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY...WILL INTRODUCE THURSDAY NIGHT CHANCE AS
WELL.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...LOCAL TEMPERATURE COMPUTATIONS WERE CLOSEST TO
THE AVN...SO MAINLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO AVN/MEX GUIDANCE.

MAIN CHANGES TO GRIDS...
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND WINDS TOMORROW ALONG WITH LOWER POPS
DROPPED MENTION OF PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
INTRODUCE CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT.

THANKS TO ILX FOR COORD.

.PAH...NONE.

SPODEN

Hazardous weather outlook, Nov 9, 5:45 PM CST, 7 hours 50 minutes before

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-101115-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
545 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES FOR THE OUTLOOK AREA
TONIGHT. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY
THREAT REMAINS DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS. BRISK SOUTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS OUR REGION
TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE OZARK REGION OF
MISSOURI THIS EVENING WILL MOVE EAST...ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
LATE TONIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH COULD BECOME SEVERE. THE CHANCE OF STORMS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE DURING THE EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES AROUND
MIDNIGHT. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND 45 MPH.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS ARE
THAT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN HAZARDS. THE
GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS IS FORECAST OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY
DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
AROUND MID AFTERNOON...ENDING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

YORK

In the hours before

Local storm report, Nov 9, 10:44 PM CST, 2 hours 51 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1044 PM CST SAT NOV 09 2002

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1033 PM    GOREVILLE                 IL   1.00 INCH HAIL
11/09/02   JOHNSON                        REPORTED BY JOHNSON
                                          COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE

Local storm report, Nov 9, 11:04 PM CST, 2 hours 31 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1104 PM CST SAT NOV 09 2002

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1100 PM    FRUITLAND                 MO   0.75 INCH HAIL
11/09/02   CAPE GIRARDEAU                 REPORTED BY THE PUBLIC.

DLL/MJN

Special weather statement, Nov 9, 11:05 PM CST, 2 hours 30 minutes before

ILZ084-092-MOZ076-086-087-109>112-114-100530-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1105 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2002

THE TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
AND JACKSON AND ALEXANDER COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

Local storm report, Nov 9, 11:53 PM CST, 1 hour 42 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1153 PM CST SAT NOV 09 2002

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1100 PM    FRUITLAND                 MO   WIND DAMAGE
11/09/02   CAPE GIRARDEAU                 TRAILER FLIPPED UP
                                          AGAINST HOUSE AND CAUSED
                                          SOME STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO
                                          HOUSE...SEVERAL LARGE
                                          TREE LIMBS DOWN...
                                          REPORTED BY COUNTY EM

1140 PM    WADESVILLE                IN   64 MPH WIND GUST
11/09/02   POSEY                          REPORTED BY TRAINED
                                          SPOTTERS

Local storm report, Nov 10, 1:02 AM CST, 33 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
102 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2002

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1208 AM    3N EDDYVILLE              IL   1.75 INCH HAIL
11/10/02   POPE                           RELAYED BY SALINE COUNTY
                                          SHERIFFS OFFICE

Local storm report, Nov 10, 1:25 AM CST, 10 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
125 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2002

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0115 AM                              IL   FLOODING
11/10/02   GALLATIN                       WATER OVER ROADS ALONG
                                          IL-1 IN GALLATIN COUNTY
                                          WITH WORST FLOODING AT
                                          IL-1 AND PEABODY ROAD
                                          REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT

The office that day

Everything else NWS Paducah, KY issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Nov 9, 9:54 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Livingston, McCracken	36 min
Nov 9, 11:33 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Fulton, Graves	27 min
Nov 9, 11:52 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Henderson, Union	38 min
Nov 9, 11:56 PM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Henderson, Union	34 min
Nov 10, 12:29 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Henderson, Union, Webster	46 min
Nov 10, 2:30 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Crittenden	30 min
Nov 10, 2:41 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Webster	49 min
Nov 10, 3:12 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Daviess, McLean	48 min
Nov 10, 3:35 PM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Daviess	25 min
Nov 10, 3:37 PM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Daviess	23 min
Nov 10, 4:17 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Daviess	28 min
Nov 10, 5:18 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Christian	42 min
Nov 10, 5:34 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Todd	26 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Kentucky, 2002 Every flash flood warning in 2002

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.