Severe Thunderstorm Warning 203, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
148 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2002

SEVERAL CHALLENGES WITH THE PACKAGE...CONVECTION/SEVERITY TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW...OVERALL TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND WINDS.

12 UTC UPPER AIR MAPS SHOW SEVERAL SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
AT 500MB. THE ONE OVER TEXAS WILL BE OUR MAIN CONCERN
TONIGHT...ANOTHER OVER MONTANA...WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO THE
PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY. 170KT JET AT 250 MB WAS SEEN OVER THE
ROCKIES. AT 850...THE MOISTURE AND FLOW SUGGEST THE DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE TO OUR EAST WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE 70 DEGREE
DEWPOINTS WERE ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH MID 50S ALREADY HERE.
GRADIENT AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW PRODUCING WIND GUST OVER 30 MPH IN THE
CWA.

PREFER COMBINATION OF RUC AND AVN MODELS FOR THIS PACKAGE.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH EARLY THIS EVENING AT THE
SURFACE AND ISENTROPICALLY ALONG THE 300K SURFACE. THIS MOISTURE
WILL AID IN THE DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE...HOWEVER...18 UTC
LAPS SOUNDING HAS A PRETTY LARGE CAP. WITH THE HIGH SHEAR ONLY A
LITTLE INSTABILITY IS NEEDED TO GET THUNDERSTORMS GOING. WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE OVER THE WEST AND LIKELY EAST TONIGHT. STORM
RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES FORECAST TO BE NEAR 600 THIS EVENING OVER
THE EASTERN HALF...SO ROTATION IS LIKELY ONCE STORMS START. WILL
KEEP MENTION OF SEVERE.

AS FIRST WAVE EXITS THE AREA TONIGHT...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL END BY MIDNIGHT...BUT MAY LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS.
SWODY2 HAS US IN SLIGHT...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT COLD FRONT
WILL BE ALONG A BOONVILLE INDIANA TO MAYFIELD KENTUCKY LINE BY 18Z
AND SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY 21Z. WILL END PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY.

RIDGING SETS UP FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY AS COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. MRF, ENSEMBLES
AND ECMWF ALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS FEATURE. CURRENT FORECAST
HAS CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY...WILL INTRODUCE THURSDAY NIGHT CHANCE AS
WELL.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...LOCAL TEMPERATURE COMPUTATIONS WERE CLOSEST TO
THE AVN...SO MAINLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO AVN/MEX GUIDANCE.

MAIN CHANGES TO GRIDS...
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND WINDS TOMORROW ALONG WITH LOWER POPS
DROPPED MENTION OF PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
INTRODUCE CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT.

THANKS TO ILX FOR COORD.

.PAH...NONE.

SPODEN

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-101115-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
545 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES FOR THE OUTLOOK AREA
TONIGHT. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY
THREAT REMAINS DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS. BRISK SOUTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS OUR REGION
TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE OZARK REGION OF
MISSOURI THIS EVENING WILL MOVE EAST...ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
LATE TONIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH COULD BECOME SEVERE. THE CHANCE OF STORMS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE DURING THE EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES AROUND
MIDNIGHT. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND 45 MPH.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS ARE
THAT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN HAZARDS. THE
GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS IS FORECAST OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY
DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
AROUND MID AFTERNOON...ENDING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

YORK