Severe Thunderstorm Warning 217, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
200 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2002

LINE OF SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES TO EVOLVE OVER WEST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND SCATTERED CELLS ARE ALSO
GROWING OUT AHEAD OF THIS LINE IN SOUTHERN EXTREME WESTERN KY AND SW
INDIANA. PLEASE REFER TO SPC DICUSSIONS FOR THE LATEST INFO ON THIS
SEVERE STORM/TORNADO THREAT. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE WITH THE
TIMING OF THE SEVERE WEATHER/COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. BASED ON
LATEST RUC AND RADAR TRENDS...LOOKS NOW AS THOUGH WE WILL AT LEAST
NEED TO MENTION STORMS EARLY TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER WRN KY AND SW INDIANA. WILL
INCLUDE EXPLICIT MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS AND WILL CONSIDER MENTION
OF TORNADOES POSSIBLE. STORM THREAT SHOULD BE OVER SOUTHEAST ZONES
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

LOOKS MOSTLY DRY NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT WITH MAIN H50 TROF HANGING BACK
WEST OF THE REGION TIL LATER TUESDAY...NOT TOO OPTIMISTIC ON THE
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. NEXT SHORT WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK FOR LATER IN THE WORK WEEK.
CURRENT TIMING TIMING OF THURSDAY NIGHT INGOT FRI IS SUPPORTED BY
LATEST GFM RUN. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE OF SHOWERS DUE TO EXPECTED
UPPER DYNAMICS...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN LOOKS TO MODEST AT
BEST.

WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE MAV MOS TEMPS NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.PAH...NONE.

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-111100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1230 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

...THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WITH
ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON...

.DAY ONE...
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON
IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE RISK OF WIDESPREAD WIND
DAMAGE AND STRONG TORNADOES IS HIGHEST OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY...WHERE
THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. ELSEWHERE...A MODERATE RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST
INDIANA...AS WELL AS EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. TORNADO WATCHES
HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE REGION. A LINE OF STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS WAS FORMING ALONG THE FRONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST...PASSING ACROSS THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND EAST OF HOPKINSVILLE BY MID
EVENING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER HAVE ALLOWED SUNSHINE TO WARM
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S...CREATING PLENTY OF INSTABILITY.
WIND FIELDS ALOFT ARE VERY STRONG...FAVORING ORGANIZED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUESTED WHERE IT HAS NOT ALREADY
BEEN REQUESTED. ALL PERSONS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST WATCH
AND WARNING INFORMATION...AND REVIEW THEIR TORNADO SAFETY
PROCEDURES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

YORK

ILZ084-MOZ076-101945-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
112 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2002

...STRONG STORM CROSSING MISSISSIPPI RIVER...

A STRONG STORM IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM
PERRY COUNTY MISSOURI...TOWARD GORHAM ILLINOIS. THIS STORM HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS...ONE HALF INCH HAIL AND VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY AND BECOME SEVERE AS IT
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH TOWARD ELKVILLE.

IF YOU LIVE IN JACKSON COUNTY REMAIN ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING
CONDITIONS. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM CST.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
135 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2002

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0115 PM    10W WAPPAPELLO            MO   WIND DAMAGE
11/10/02   WAYNE                          TREE REPORTED DOWN AT HWY
                                          172 & HWY 67 REPORTED BY
                                          LAW ENFORCEMENT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
148 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2002

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0138 PM    ELKVILLE                  IL   1.00 INCH HAIL
11/10/02   JACKSON                        REPORTED BY JACKSON
                                          COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE

0140 PM    HURST                     IL   0.75 INCH HAIL
11/10/02   WILLIAMSON                     REPORTED BY TRAINED
                                          SPOTTERS

0143 PM    ROYALTON                  IL   1.75 INCH HAIL
11/10/02   FRANKLIN                       REPORTED BY FIRE
                                          DEPARTMENT