Alert archive / Missouri / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 144, NWS Paducah, KY
NWS Paducah, KY issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 16, 2002, 8:38 PM CDT for Stoddard County, Missouri. It was in force for 22 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- May 16, 2002, 8:38 PM CDT (01:38 UTC)
- Expired
- May 16, 2002, 9:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 22 min
- Issued by
- NWS Paducah, KY
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
County Stoddard County, MO
The radar
The Paducah radar (KPAH), 107 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:38 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 16, 8:52 PM CDT | Hail 0.75 | Bell City, MO |
NCEI Storm Data entries that began inside the alert's area while it was in force. Before 2003 the local storm report archive is thin, so this is the record of what happened rather than what was phoned in.
The nearest sounding before it
Little Rock, AR (KLZK), launched 00:00Z, 1.6 hours before the alert went out and 225 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1074 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -35 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1078 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 31 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 84 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 207 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.6
- Supercell composite
- 4.6
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 16, 2:00 PM CDT, 6 hours 38 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, May 16, 2:00 PM CDT, 6 hours 38 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 200 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2002 12Z UA ANALYSIS SHOWED RIBBON OF H8 MOISTURE FM SRN PLAINS-UPR MIDWEST...BEING TAPPED BY H5-H7 VORTS...EJECTING ACROSS MO. IR SHOTS SHOW ONGOING CONVECTION EXTENDING FM CNTL MO BACK INTO SE KS ALONG THIS RIBBON...WHERE H8 THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDS NORTH FM TX AND K INDICES ARE IN 30-35 RANGE. PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS NOT SO MUCH HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL BUT WHERE WILL IT BE HEAVIEST. MODELS ALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT PRECURSING VORT WL RACE NE OUT AHEAD OF MCS TONIGHT...WHICH WL YIELD SCT 1/4-1/2 AMOUNTS IN GENERAL THRU MIDNIGHT. THEN AFT MIDNIGHT...MCS DEVELOPS IN PLAINS AND RACES EAST AS FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO PAH FA...LAYING OUT ROUGHLY ACROSS OH RIVER BY 12Z. CONVECTION SHOULD THEN FOCUS ALONG BOUNDARY THRU THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH TOTAL QPF RANGING FM 1-3 FA-WIDE. WHILE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY EXISTS...AVN/NGM SOLUTIONS PREFERRED WITH THEIR MORE SIMILAR COMMA HEAD SHAPED DEVELOPMENT OF FRONTAL SYSTEM...THUS PAINTING HIGHEST QPF POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTH (SEMO-WKY). WITH RIVERS ALREADY IN FLOOD...AND GROUNDS FAIRLY SATURATED FM RECENT HEAVY RAINS...ITS PRETTY MUCH A NO BRAINER TO CONTINUE FLOOD WATCH FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WL KEEP LINGERING EARLY FRI NIGHT CHC...THEN CLEAR OUT AS DRY AIR MOVES IN BEHIND DEPARTING FRONT. WEEKEND-EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS COOL/DRY...WITH BOTH FMR/MEX GUIDANCE TRENDING DOWN...SO WL TWEEK TEMPS COOLER THRU DAY5...THEN REBOUND WED-THU AS UPR HIGH SHIFTS EAST. .PAH...FLOOD WATCH LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ALL OF CWA. HUMPHREY
In the hours before
Special weather statement, May 16, 5:00 PM CDT, 3 hours 38 minutes before
ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100- 107>112-114-170000- HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 500 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2002 ...HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA. THREATS... A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS HEAVY RAIN WOULD LIKELY INCREASE THE CURRENT FLOODING PROBLEMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS WEST OF A LINE FROM KENTUCKYS LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES...TO MORGANFIELD KENTUCKY...TO MCLEANSBORO ILLINOIS. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS. DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE QUAD STATE AREA TONIGHT. MOISTURE LEVELS...ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH ITS APPROACH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN WILL START AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. SO...THE EXTREME NORTHERN SECTIONS MAY SEE THE HEAVIEST RAIN TONIGHT...WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL SEE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TOMORROW. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY AVERAGE 1 INCH OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS...WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH SOUTH. SPOTTER ACTIVATION... SPOTTERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE WITH RAIN GAUGES...WILL BE NEEDED TO HELP MONITOR WATER LEVELS AND REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. SPOTTERS SHOULD ALSO REPORT ANY NEW ROAD CLOSURES DUE TO THE RAINS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY... THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN WILL THE MAIN THREATS. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 AND A HALF INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
Special weather statement, May 16, 5:00 PM CDT, 3 hours 38 minutes before
ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100- 107>112-114-170400- HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 500 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2002 CORRECTED FOR EXPIRATION TIME ...HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA. THREATS... A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS HEAVY RAIN WOULD LIKELY INCREASE THE CURRENT FLOODING PROBLEMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS WEST OF A LINE FROM KENTUCKYS LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES...TO MORGANFIELD KENTUCKY...TO MCLEANSBORO ILLINOIS. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS. DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE QUAD STATE AREA TONIGHT. MOISTURE LEVELS...ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH ITS APPROACH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN WILL START AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. SO...THE EXTREME NORTHERN SECTIONS MAY SEE THE HEAVIEST RAIN TONIGHT...WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL SEE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TOMORROW. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY AVERAGE 1 INCH OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS...WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH SOUTH. SPOTTER ACTIVATION... SPOTTERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE WITH RAIN GAUGES...WILL BE NEEDED TO HELP MONITOR WATER LEVELS AND REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. SPOTTERS SHOULD ALSO REPORT ANY NEW ROAD CLOSURES DUE TO THE RAINS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY... THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN WILL THE MAIN THREATS. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 AND A HALF INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
The office that day
Everything else NWS Paducah, KY issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 3:45 AM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | PAH | Graves, McCracken, Marshall | 3 hr |
| May 17, 5:25 AM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | PAH | Ballard, Carlisle | 4 hr |
| May 17, 5:58 AM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | PAH | Calloway, Graves, McCracken, Marshall | 3 hr |
| May 17, 7:56 AM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | PAH | Caldwell, Crittenden, Hopkins, Livingston, McLean, Muhlenberg and 1 more | 4 hr |
| May 17, 8:59 AM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | PAH | Ballard, Calloway, Carlisle, Fulton, Graves, Hickman and 2 more | 5 hr |
| May 17, 10:10 AM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | PAH | Daviess | 5 hr |
| May 17, 12:40 AM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | PAH | Union | 6 hr |
| May 17, 1:12 AM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | PAH | Alexander, Johnson, Pulaski | 5 hr |
| May 16, 7:31 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PAH | Wayne | 44 min |
| May 16, 11:06 PM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | PAH | Bollinger | 3 hr |
| May 16, 11:35 PM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | PAH | Cape Girardeau | 3 hr |
| May 17, 12:49 AM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | PAH | Bollinger, Cape Girardeau | 6 hr |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Missouri, 2002Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; verification from NCEI's Storm Data; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.