Flash Flood Warning 43, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
300 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2002

WILL BE BRIEF DO TO ONGOING FLOODING SITUATION...

CURRENT RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN TODAY WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY SE MO AND WRN KY. SOME AREAS OF SE MO HAVE ALREADY
PICKED UP 2 TO 3 INCHES SINCE 00Z (2.64 AT CGI)...WITH MORE ON THE
WAY. ALREADY NUMEROUS FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OUT...WITH MORE TO COME
IN THE NEAR FUTURE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST.

WITH RIVERS ALREADY IN FLOOD...AND GROUNDS FAIRLY SATURATED FM
RECENT HEAVY RAINS...ITS PRETTY MUCH A NO BRAINER TO CONTINUE FLOOD
WATCH FOR TODAY...EVEN IN NORTHERN AREAS WHERE RAINFALL MAY NOT BE
AS HEAVY. SPC TARGETS SOUTHERN AREAS WITH SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE...THOUGH I REALLY THINK CURRENT CONVECTION IN THAT REGION IS
WORKING OVER THE AIRMASS FAIRLY WELL...AND WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
RECOVER DUE TO CLOUDS/PRECIP TODAY. STILL...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
STRONG ELEVATED STORMS.

WL KEEP LINGERING EARLY FRI NIGHT CHC...THEN CLEAR OUT AS DRY AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND DEPARTING FRONT. WEEKEND-EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS
COOL/DRY.

SCATTERED FROST NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SAT NIGHT NORTHERN AREAS AS
DEW POINTS SETTLE INTO THE MID 30S AND WINDS GO CALM. BIG QUESTION
WILL BE WHETHER SKIES STAY CLEAR...OR WRAP AROUND STRATO CU MAKE IT
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

.PAH...FLOOD WATCH TODAY ALL OF CWA.

MEFFERT

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-171700-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
600 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2002

...HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA.

THREATS...
FLOODING POTENTIAL IS HIGH TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE QUAD STATE
REGION...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM VAN BUREN
MISSOURI...TO MARION ILLINOIS...TO OWENSBORO KENTUCKY. IN ADDITION...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITHIN THAT
SAME AREA.

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE
QUAD STATE REGION TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT...AS LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES EAST OUT
OF THE PLAINS.

MANY AREAS OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
ILLINOIS...AND WESTERN KENTUCKY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RECEIVE
AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO OF RAIN TODAY...WHILE SOME LOCALES ALONG
THE KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BORDER MAY SEE ANOTHER TWO INCHES OF RAIN.

THIS RAIN WILL FALL ON ALREADY SATURATED SOIL FROM RECENT RAINS...SO
LITTLE OF THE RAIN WILL SOAK INTO THE GROUND. IN ADDITION...MANY
RIVERS ACROSS THE QUAD STATE REGION ARE ALREADY FLOODING...SO THE
RAINS WILL SERIOUSLY AGGRAVATE THESE CONDITIONS. IN FACT...PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

IN ADDITION TO THE FLOODING POTENTIAL...ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TODAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THIS IS ABOUT THE SAME AREA WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT
EXISTS. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE STORMS WILL BE WITH HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

ALL THE ACTIVITY WILL END THIS EVENING AS DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
SPOTTERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE WITH RAIN GAUGES...WILL BE NEEDED TO
HELP MONITOR WATER LEVELS AND REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. SPOTTERS
SHOULD ALSO REPORT ANY NEW ROAD CLOSURES DUE TO HEAVY RAINS.

OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE
ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY.