Flash Flood Warning 33, NWS Paducah, KY

Issued

May 16, 2002, 11:06 PM CDT (04:06 UTC)

Expired

May 17, 2002, 2:00 AM CDT

In force

3 hr

Issued by

NWS Paducah, KY

Area

Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Bollinger County, MO

The Paducah radar (KPAH), 119 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:05 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

000 
WGUS53 KPAH 170406
FFWPAH
MOC017-170700-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1105 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  BOLLINGER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI

* UNTIL 200 AM CDT

* AT 1103 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATES STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF 
PRODUCING AN INCH OR MORE PER HOUR OF RAIN OVER BOLLINGER COUNTY. 
WITH THIS AREA HAVING ALREADY RECEIVED FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES IN THE 
PAST SEVERAL HOURS...FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY ON AREA CREEKS AND 
STREAMS.

IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IMMINENT...MOVE QUICKLY TO HIGHER 
GROUND. NEVER DRIVE INTO AN AREA WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. ACT QUICKLY IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED. MOVE
TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT
TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

LAT...LON 3755 9012 3711 9020 3716 8990 3758 8990

NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at May 16, 2:00 PM CDT, 9 hours 6 minutes earlier.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
200 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2002

12Z UA ANALYSIS SHOWED RIBBON OF H8 MOISTURE FM SRN PLAINS-UPR
MIDWEST...BEING TAPPED BY H5-H7 VORTS...EJECTING ACROSS MO. IR SHOTS
SHOW ONGOING CONVECTION EXTENDING FM CNTL MO BACK INTO SE KS ALONG
THIS RIBBON...WHERE H8 THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDS NORTH FM TX AND K
INDICES ARE IN 30-35 RANGE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS NOT SO MUCH HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL
BUT WHERE WILL IT BE HEAVIEST. MODELS ALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
PRECURSING VORT WL RACE NE OUT AHEAD OF MCS TONIGHT...WHICH WL YIELD
SCT 1/4-1/2 AMOUNTS IN GENERAL THRU MIDNIGHT. THEN AFT MIDNIGHT...MCS
DEVELOPS IN PLAINS AND RACES EAST AS FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO PAH
FA...LAYING OUT ROUGHLY ACROSS OH RIVER BY 12Z. CONVECTION SHOULD
THEN FOCUS ALONG BOUNDARY THRU THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH TOTAL QPF
RANGING FM 1-3 FA-WIDE. WHILE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY
EXISTS...AVN/NGM SOLUTIONS PREFERRED WITH THEIR MORE SIMILAR COMMA
HEAD SHAPED DEVELOPMENT OF FRONTAL SYSTEM...THUS PAINTING HIGHEST
QPF POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTH (SEMO-WKY).

WITH RIVERS ALREADY IN FLOOD...AND GROUNDS FAIRLY SATURATED FM
RECENT HEAVY RAINS...ITS PRETTY MUCH A NO BRAINER TO CONTINUE FLOOD
WATCH FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

WL KEEP LINGERING EARLY FRI NIGHT CHC...THEN CLEAR OUT AS DRY AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND DEPARTING FRONT. WEEKEND-EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS
COOL/DRY...WITH BOTH FMR/MEX GUIDANCE TRENDING DOWN...SO WL TWEEK
TEMPS COOLER THRU DAY5...THEN REBOUND WED-THU AS UPR HIGH SHIFTS
EAST.

.PAH...FLOOD WATCH LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ALL OF CWA.
HUMPHREY

In the hours before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
855 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0834 PM    PUXICO                    MO   0.88 INCH HAIL
05/16/02   STODDARD                       REPORTED BY TRAINED
                                          SPOTTERS

0852 PM    BELL CITY                 MO   0.75 INCH HAIL
05/16/02   STODDARD                       RELAYED BY SKYWARN
                                          SPOTTER THROUGH STODDARD
                                          COUNTY EM

Flash Flood Warnings in Missouri, 2002Every flash flood warning in 2002

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.