Alert archive / Missouri / Flash Flood Warnings in 2002
Flash Flood Warning 34, NWS Paducah, KY
NWS Paducah, KY issued this flash flood warning at May 16, 2002, 11:35 PM CDT for Cape Girardeau County, Missouri. It was in force for 3 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 16, 2002, 11:35 PM CDT (04:35 UTC)
- Expired
- May 17, 2002, 2:30 AM CDT
- In force
- 3 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Paducah, KY
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
County Cape Girardeau County, MO
The radar
The Paducah radar (KPAH), 92 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:36 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Little Rock, AR (KLZK), launched 00:00Z, 4.6 hours before the alert went out and 288 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1074 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -35 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1078 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 31 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 84 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 207 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.6
- Supercell composite
- 4.6
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WGUS53 KPAH 170435 FFWPAH MOC031-170730- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1135 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2002 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... CAPE GIRARDEAU COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI * UNTIL 230 AM CDT * AT 1134 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATES STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN INCH OR MORE PER HOUR OF RAIN OVER CAPE GIRARDEAU COUNTY. WITH THIS AREA HAVING ALREADY RECEIVED FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS. BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE DANGERS OF FLOODING. ACT QUICKLY IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROAD. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY. LAT...LON 3753 8983 3718 8982 3729 8955 3753 8957
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at May 16, 2:00 PM CDT, 9 hours 35 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, May 16, 2:00 PM CDT, 9 hours 35 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 200 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2002 12Z UA ANALYSIS SHOWED RIBBON OF H8 MOISTURE FM SRN PLAINS-UPR MIDWEST...BEING TAPPED BY H5-H7 VORTS...EJECTING ACROSS MO. IR SHOTS SHOW ONGOING CONVECTION EXTENDING FM CNTL MO BACK INTO SE KS ALONG THIS RIBBON...WHERE H8 THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDS NORTH FM TX AND K INDICES ARE IN 30-35 RANGE. PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS NOT SO MUCH HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL BUT WHERE WILL IT BE HEAVIEST. MODELS ALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT PRECURSING VORT WL RACE NE OUT AHEAD OF MCS TONIGHT...WHICH WL YIELD SCT 1/4-1/2 AMOUNTS IN GENERAL THRU MIDNIGHT. THEN AFT MIDNIGHT...MCS DEVELOPS IN PLAINS AND RACES EAST AS FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO PAH FA...LAYING OUT ROUGHLY ACROSS OH RIVER BY 12Z. CONVECTION SHOULD THEN FOCUS ALONG BOUNDARY THRU THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH TOTAL QPF RANGING FM 1-3 FA-WIDE. WHILE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY EXISTS...AVN/NGM SOLUTIONS PREFERRED WITH THEIR MORE SIMILAR COMMA HEAD SHAPED DEVELOPMENT OF FRONTAL SYSTEM...THUS PAINTING HIGHEST QPF POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTH (SEMO-WKY). WITH RIVERS ALREADY IN FLOOD...AND GROUNDS FAIRLY SATURATED FM RECENT HEAVY RAINS...ITS PRETTY MUCH A NO BRAINER TO CONTINUE FLOOD WATCH FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WL KEEP LINGERING EARLY FRI NIGHT CHC...THEN CLEAR OUT AS DRY AIR MOVES IN BEHIND DEPARTING FRONT. WEEKEND-EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS COOL/DRY...WITH BOTH FMR/MEX GUIDANCE TRENDING DOWN...SO WL TWEEK TEMPS COOLER THRU DAY5...THEN REBOUND WED-THU AS UPR HIGH SHIFTS EAST. .PAH...FLOOD WATCH LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ALL OF CWA. HUMPHREY
In the hours before
Local storm report, May 16, 8:55 PM CDT, 2 hours 40 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
855 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2002
TIME(CDT) .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE ...EVENT/REMARKS...
....COUNTY LOCATION....
0834 PM PUXICO MO 0.88 INCH HAIL
05/16/02 STODDARD REPORTED BY TRAINED
SPOTTERS
0852 PM BELL CITY MO 0.75 INCH HAIL
05/16/02 STODDARD RELAYED BY SKYWARN
SPOTTER THROUGH STODDARD
COUNTY EMSpecial weather statement, May 16, 11:10 PM CDT, 25 minutes before
ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100- 107>112-114-171008- HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1110 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2002 ...HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA. THREATS... A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS HEAVY RAIN WOULD LIKELY INCREASE THE CURRENT FLOODING PROBLEMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE QUAD STATE AREA TONIGHT. MOISTURE LEVELS...ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH ITS APPROACH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN WILL START AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. SO...THE EXTREME NORTHERN SECTIONS MAY SEE THE HEAVIEST RAIN TONIGHT...WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL SEE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TOMORROW. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY AVERAGE 1 INCH OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS...WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH SOUTH. SPOTTER ACTIVATION... SPOTTERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE WITH RAIN GAUGES...WILL BE NEEDED TO HELP MONITOR WATER LEVELS AND REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. SPOTTERS SHOULD ALSO REPORT ANY NEW ROAD CLOSURES DUE TO THE RAINS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY... THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN WILL THE MAIN THREATS. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 AND A HALF INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
The office that day
Everything else NWS Paducah, KY issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 16, 7:31 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PAH | Wayne | 44 min |
| May 16, 8:38 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PAH | Stoddard | 22 min |
| May 16, 11:06 PM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | PAH | Bollinger | 3 hr |
| May 17, 12:40 AM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | PAH | Wayne | 6 hr |
| May 17, 12:49 AM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | PAH | Bollinger, Cape Girardeau | 6 hr |
| May 17, 3:45 AM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | PAH | Scott, Stoddard | 3 hr |
| May 17, 5:25 AM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | PAH | Mississippi | 4 hr |
| May 17, 8:59 AM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | PAH | Mississippi | 5 hr |
Nearby
Flash Flood Warnings in Missouri, 2002Every flash flood warning in 2002
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.