Severe Thunderstorm Warning 95, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
348 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2002

UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO ATTM AS INDICATED BY LATEST WATER
VAPOR LOOP AND TRANSLATING SLOWLY EASTWARD. ALSO HAVE A PLUME OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE RUNNING FROM BAJA ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO
SOUTHWEST TEXAS. SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS A PIECE OF ENERGY ALONG BASE
OF TROUGH ATTM MOVING INTO FAR WEST TEXAS AND THIS FEATURE TO MOVE
INTO FA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH UPPER TROUGH...HOWEVER THEY SLOW THE TROUGH DOWN AND KEEP IT
WEST OF THE FA...THEN GRADUALLY SHEAR IT OUT ACROSS THE FA NEXT 48
HOURS.

ANOTHER FACTOR THAT WILL COME INTO PLAY THIS EVENING IS SURFACE
FRONT MOVING INTO THE FA AND SHARPENING DRYLINE OVER THE WESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS ATTM. HIGH CAPE OVER THE AREA WITH RUC INDICATING
SBCAPE 4000-5000 J/KG...GOOD CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT MOST AREAS
WITH BEST CHANCE LOW ROLLING PLAINS WHERE PW VALUES HIGHEST. SEVERE
STORMS ALSO LIKELY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH LARGE HAIL
THREAT...SO  WILL WORD FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. SEE SPC SWODY1 FOR
FURTHER DETAILS. WILL KEEP HIGH POPS GOING TONIGHT WITH BOUNDARY IN
AREA...LEFT EXIT REGION OF 80KT 25H JET STREAK TO MOVE ACROSS FA.
7H TEMPS ALSO TO COOL AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO REGION.

FOR THE EXTENDED WILL KEEP SKIES GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY AS SHEAR
AXIS TO BE NEAR/CLOSE TO THE FA THROUGH PERIOD. ANOTHER FRONT MOVES
INTO THE FA SUNDAY AND WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES TO STAY IN THE 80S/90S THROUGH EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

PRELIM NUMBERS...

FRIONA      52/75/54/79  7321
TULIA       53/76/55/80  7321
BROWNFIELD  59/79/59/83  8431
LUBBOCK     59/77/57/82  8431
CHILDRESS   59/75/58/83  8731
ASPERMONT   62/80/61/84  7731

.LUB...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 8 PM TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.

XI

TXZ021>044-041930-

AREA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1154 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2002

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...AND
LOW ROLLING PLAINS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO LATE
THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY APPROACH WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG A SILVERTON
TO PLAINVIEW TO MORTON LINE LATE THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED NEAR HOBBS
NEW MEXICO WHILE A DRYLINE WILL BE NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON.

THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE MOIST UNSTABLE AIR INTERSECTING THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON
AND RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE.

UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA BY THIS
EVENING PROVIDING FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME
SUPERCELL STORMS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE TONIGHT AS
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOVE NORTHEAST.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS AND
SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AS THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME REGION
TONIGHT. ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL AND SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD REMAIN
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

TMT

TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042-050100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
413 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2002

...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS UNTIL 800 PM
CDT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR THE
TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS UNTIL 8 PM CDT.

THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES ARE INCLUDED IN THIS WATCH...

PARMER... CASTRO... SWISHER... BRISCOE... BAILEY... LAMB...
HALE... FLOYD... COCHRAN... HOCKLEY... LUBBOCK... CROSBY...
YOAKUM... TERRY... LYNN AND GARZA.

A TORNADO WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES
AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.