Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
325 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2002

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW TRAVELING SLOWLY TO THE EAST
ALONG ARIZONA/MEXICO BORDER WITH SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE
STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN BAJA INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ETA AND AVN
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THRU 48 HRS ON UPPER TROF SLOWLY PUSHING EAST AND
WEAKENING ACROSS THE REGION BY WED NIGHT. GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIP
STILL LOOKING VERY FAVORABLE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWFA FROM THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS AREA WILL BE IN FAVORED LEFT EXIT REGION
OF 80KT H25 JET STREAK...AND H70 TEMPS COOL BY 4-6 DEG C BY THIS
EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG EARLY JUNE COLD FRONT NOW LOCATED
FROM NORTHEAST NM INTO NORTHCENTRAL KS WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE
TX PANHANDLE TODAY LIKELY REACHING TO NEAR A MULESHOE TO PLAINVIEW
TO CHILDRESS LINE BY 00Z THEN CLEARING THE CWFA SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MAY SEE ISOLATED STORMS FIRE ALONG DRYLINE THIS AFTN WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN UP NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER. HOWEVER...THE BEST
CHANCE OF STORMS WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF
COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN CWFA BY LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. PW VALUES TONIGHT ARE PROGGED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 1.00 INCH
ACROSS THE SW CWFA TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES INVOF CHILDRESS. SOME STORMS
WILL LIKELY REACH SEVERE LIMITS ALONG AND NORTH OF FRONT GIVEN
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW NEAR FRONTAL BNDRY AND INCREASING MID LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SB CAPE AROUND 3000 J/KG. SEE LATEST SPC SWODY 1
FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. WEDNESDAY COULD BE RATHER COOL FOR JUNE
STANDARDS IF CLOUDS AND PRECIP STICK AROUND THRU THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WILL PLACE HIGHER POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN SECTIONS DUE
TO CLOSER PROXIMITY OF FRONT. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA
WED NIGHT WITH CLOUDS ON THE DECREASE. MADE NO CHANGES TO EXTENDED
PORTION OF FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STILL EXPECTED TO NOSE INTO
WEST TEXAS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH ANOTHER FRONT
TO PROVIDE A SHOT OF PRECIP ON SUNDAY.

PRELIM NUMBERS...

FRI   85/54/77/54  6631
TUL   87/56/76/55  6831
BNF   90/60/80/59  4742
LBB   89/60/78/57  5842
CDS   88/59/75/58  6861
ASP   92/62/81/61  4772

.LUB...NONE.

ELLIS

TXZ021>044-041930-

AREA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1154 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2002

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...AND
LOW ROLLING PLAINS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO LATE
THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY APPROACH WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG A SILVERTON
TO PLAINVIEW TO MORTON LINE LATE THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED NEAR HOBBS
NEW MEXICO WHILE A DRYLINE WILL BE NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON.

THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE MOIST UNSTABLE AIR INTERSECTING THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON
AND RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE.

UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA BY THIS
EVENING PROVIDING FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME
SUPERCELL STORMS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE TONIGHT AS
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOVE NORTHEAST.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS AND
SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AS THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME REGION
TONIGHT. ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL AND SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD REMAIN
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

TMT