Severe Thunderstorm Warning 102, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
348 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2002

UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO ATTM AS INDICATED BY LATEST WATER
VAPOR LOOP AND TRANSLATING SLOWLY EASTWARD. ALSO HAVE A PLUME OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE RUNNING FROM BAJA ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO
SOUTHWEST TEXAS. SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS A PIECE OF ENERGY ALONG BASE
OF TROUGH ATTM MOVING INTO FAR WEST TEXAS AND THIS FEATURE TO MOVE
INTO FA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH UPPER TROUGH...HOWEVER THEY SLOW THE TROUGH DOWN AND KEEP IT
WEST OF THE FA...THEN GRADUALLY SHEAR IT OUT ACROSS THE FA NEXT 48
HOURS.

ANOTHER FACTOR THAT WILL COME INTO PLAY THIS EVENING IS SURFACE
FRONT MOVING INTO THE FA AND SHARPENING DRYLINE OVER THE WESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS ATTM. HIGH CAPE OVER THE AREA WITH RUC INDICATING
SBCAPE 4000-5000 J/KG...GOOD CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT MOST AREAS
WITH BEST CHANCE LOW ROLLING PLAINS WHERE PW VALUES HIGHEST. SEVERE
STORMS ALSO LIKELY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH LARGE HAIL
THREAT...SO  WILL WORD FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. SEE SPC SWODY1 FOR
FURTHER DETAILS. WILL KEEP HIGH POPS GOING TONIGHT WITH BOUNDARY IN
AREA...LEFT EXIT REGION OF 80KT 25H JET STREAK TO MOVE ACROSS FA.
7H TEMPS ALSO TO COOL AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO REGION.

FOR THE EXTENDED WILL KEEP SKIES GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY AS SHEAR
AXIS TO BE NEAR/CLOSE TO THE FA THROUGH PERIOD. ANOTHER FRONT MOVES
INTO THE FA SUNDAY AND WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES TO STAY IN THE 80S/90S THROUGH EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

PRELIM NUMBERS...

FRIONA      52/75/54/79  7321
TULIA       53/76/55/80  7321
BROWNFIELD  59/79/59/83  8431
LUBBOCK     59/77/57/82  8431
CHILDRESS   59/75/58/83  8731
ASPERMONT   62/80/61/84  7731

.LUB...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 8 PM TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.

XI

TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042-050100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
413 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2002

...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS UNTIL 800 PM
CDT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR THE
TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS UNTIL 8 PM CDT.

THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES ARE INCLUDED IN THIS WATCH...

PARMER... CASTRO... SWISHER... BRISCOE... BAILEY... LAMB...
HALE... FLOYD... COCHRAN... HOCKLEY... LUBBOCK... CROSBY...
YOAKUM... TERRY... LYNN AND GARZA.

A TORNADO WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES
AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.