Severe Thunderstorm Warning 251, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
105 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2002

...MDT/HIGH RISK SVR FOR LMK CWA INTO TONIGHT...

SIG SVR WX EPISODE APPEARS IMMINENT FOR LMK CWA, WITH BKN LINE OF
SVR CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER IN/IL/MO ATTM. NEARLY STEADY SWLY
35-40KT FLOW AT 900MB WILL INTERCHANGE OVER OUR REGION WITH 70-80KT
500MB FLOW ASSOC WITH APPROACHING JET STREAK, SIG INCR SHEAR VALUES.
12KM ETA BUFKIT FCST HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST INITIAL PERIOD OF
SUPERCELLULAR CONVECTIVE MODE THIS AFTERNOON, THEN TRANSITIONING TO
MORE OF A LINEAR MODE AS SFC TROF APPROACHES CWA. ALREADY SEEING
SOME ISOLATED LEADING EDGE CELLS OVER SERN MO/SRN IL, SUGGESTING
SUPERCELL THREAT MAY BE REALIZED. FORWARD PROPAGATING MESO-BETA
ELEMENTS MAY HAVE VECTORS NEARING 230/85KT WITHIN LARGER SCALE
LINEAR SYSTEM, WHICH SHOULD HAVE A QUICK EAST MOTION PER 700MB ETA
OMEGA FIELDS.

ONLY LMTG FACTOR (FOR TIME BEING) OVER CWA IS A SMALL CAPPING
INVERSION 750MB, INDICATED BY ARRIVING A/C FROM ANCHORAGE INTO SDF
AT 15Z. RUC FCSTS THIS 750MB PRE FRONTAL WARM PLUME TO RESIDE OVER
CWA TIL 20-21Z, THEN COLLAPSE AT STG FRONTAL DYNAMICS AND
INSTABILITY PUSHES INTO CWA. ANOTHER INTERESTING THING TO NOTE IS
RUC/ETA FCSTING SUBTLE SFC WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG FRONT OVER WRN TN
00Z/MON, WHICH WOULD ACT TO ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL HELICITIES,
SUPERCELLULAR POTENTIAL, AND OVERALL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DOWN IN
SRN KY FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED TORNADOES LOOK
TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. PER CURRENT RADAR TRENDS, SOME POST
FRONTAL STRATIFORM PCPN WILL LIKELY FOLLOW DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TS COMPLEX SHOULD PUSH EWD AND EXIT LMK CWA IN THE WEE HOURS MONDAY
MORNING. KEEPING IT BRIEF HERE, NEXT WX STORY IS SFC LOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS SERN CONUS TUE AM, WITH POSITIVE FEEDBACK RESPONSE DEEPENING
MID-LEVEL TROF OVER CWA. LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THOSE COOL, RAW, AND
CLOUDY DAYS TUE WITH NLY SFC FLOW. GIVEN FCST L/RS WITHIN TROF
AXIS, SOME SPRINKLES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, BUT WILL LEAVE ZFP DRY
FOR NOW. CLIPPER TYPE SFC LOW RACES ACROSS GREAT LAKES THU-FRI, WITH
ATTENDANT CF FCST BY 12Z GFS TO SLIDE INTO LMK CWA DURING SAID
PERIOD. DECENT DYNAMICS AND SOME MOISTURE SUGGEST CHCS OF PCPN OVER
CWA.

.SDF...NONE.

XXV

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-111200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1215 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...

A POTENTIALLY VERY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION IS SETTING UP ACROSS
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY TODAY WITH A MAJOR SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS INDICATED THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64...WITH
A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THAT AREA.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ORGANIZE INTO A SQUALL LINE WHICH WILL MOVE IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE ATMOSPHERE IS
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL TURNING OF
THE WINDS...ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGH RISK AREA ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA MUST REVIEW
SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES NOW AND HAVE A PLAN OF ACTION READY WHEN
SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPS IN YOUR AREA. LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
OR COMMERCIAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS AND
STATEMENTS CONCERNING THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY
443 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2002

TIME(EST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0435 PM    IRELAND                   IN   WIND DAMAGE
11/10/02   DUBOIS                         TREES DOWNED. 6 INCH
                                          DIAMETER

LD