Severe Thunderstorm Warning 243, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
245 PM EST SAT NOV 9 2002

DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY OVER THE
WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FAST WEST TO
EAST FLOW TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME WARM MOIST AIR WILL
BE SURGING NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY...WITH DEW POINTS GRADUALLY RISING TO 60 OR SO INTO CENTRAL
KENTUCKY.

IN ADDITION AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING EAST...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM
THE NORTH DAKOTA LOW WILL BE CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY APPROACHING KENTUCKY FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH INCREASINGLY WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR TO PRODUCE
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...BEGINNING OVER WEST KENTUCKY THIS
EVENING...THEN MOVING INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. SOME STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS.

THE PASSAGE OF THE ONE SHORT WAVE TONIGHT WILL BRING DIMISHING
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. SOME OF THESE COULD BE
SEVERE...AS A STRONG MID LEVEL JET MOVES IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES SUNDAY NIGHT...DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR
WILL PUSH IN...PRODUCING A MAINLY DRY AND COOL VETERANS DAY. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME ABOUT FRIDAY.

.SDF...NONE.
REITMEYER

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-101200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
830 PM EST SAT NOV 9 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT...TRIGGERING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. WITH A BRISK SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVER THE REGION...SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE.
THE STRONG WIND FIELDS WILL ALSO MEAN THAN TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER SAYS THAT THERE IS A RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY.

THE OTHER POTENTIAL HAZARD...OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...WILL BE
GUSTY WINDS WITH SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 MPH AT
TIMES OVERNIGHT.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED OVERNIGHT.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
ON SUNDAY...WHILE A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY SAGS THROUGH OUR REGION.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON TAP FOR SUNDAY...BEFORE
DIMINISHING SUNDAY NIGHT. WIND FIELDS AGAIN WILL REMAIN STRONG...
AS A RESULT THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SCHOLZ