Alert archive / Kentucky / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 261, NWS Louisville, KY

November 10, 2002Russell County, Kentucky

NWS Louisville, KY issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Nov 10, 2002, 5:02 PM CST for Russell County, Kentucky. It was in force for 23 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Nov 10, 2002, 5:02 PM CST (23:02 UTC)
Expired: Nov 10, 2002, 5:25 PM CST
In force: 23 min
Issued by: NWS Louisville, KY
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Russell County, KY

The radar

The Louisville radar (KLVX), 134 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:04 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Nov 10, 5:20 PM CST	Thunderstorm Wind 50 E	Russell Spgs, KY	Trees and power lines were downed.

NCEI Storm Data entries that began inside the alert's area while it was in force. Before 2003 the local storm report archive is thin, so this is the record of what happened rather than what was phoned in.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Nov 10, 3:00 PM CST	Tornado Watch	SPC	6 hr
Nov 10, 4:50 PM CST	Tornado Watch	SPC	5 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 11.0 hours before the alert went out and 164 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1061 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -6 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 668 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 57 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 408 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 410 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 2.2
Supercell composite: 9.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

569 
WUUS53 KLMK 102302
SVRSDF
KYC207-102325-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
501 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  RUSSELL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY

* UNTIL 525 PM CST

* AT 500 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER FREEDOM...OR ABOUT 31 MILES WEST OF
  SOMERSET...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RUSSELL SPRINGS AROUND 510 PM CST
  JABEZ...SALEM AROUND 515 PM CST

HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE 
LIKELY WITH THIS STORM. TAKE COVER IN A STURDY BUILDING UNTIL THIS 
STORM HAS PASSED. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND ANY DOWNED POWER LINES.

A TORNADO WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT. REMEMBER...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE NOTICE.

LAT...LON 3697 8524 3684 8516 3699 8487 3712 8498

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Louisville, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Nov 10, 12:05 PM CST, 4 hours 57 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 10, 12:05 PM CST, 4 hours 57 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
105 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2002

...MDT/HIGH RISK SVR FOR LMK CWA INTO TONIGHT...

SIG SVR WX EPISODE APPEARS IMMINENT FOR LMK CWA, WITH BKN LINE OF
SVR CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER IN/IL/MO ATTM. NEARLY STEADY SWLY
35-40KT FLOW AT 900MB WILL INTERCHANGE OVER OUR REGION WITH 70-80KT
500MB FLOW ASSOC WITH APPROACHING JET STREAK, SIG INCR SHEAR VALUES.
12KM ETA BUFKIT FCST HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST INITIAL PERIOD OF
SUPERCELLULAR CONVECTIVE MODE THIS AFTERNOON, THEN TRANSITIONING TO
MORE OF A LINEAR MODE AS SFC TROF APPROACHES CWA. ALREADY SEEING
SOME ISOLATED LEADING EDGE CELLS OVER SERN MO/SRN IL, SUGGESTING
SUPERCELL THREAT MAY BE REALIZED. FORWARD PROPAGATING MESO-BETA
ELEMENTS MAY HAVE VECTORS NEARING 230/85KT WITHIN LARGER SCALE
LINEAR SYSTEM, WHICH SHOULD HAVE A QUICK EAST MOTION PER 700MB ETA
OMEGA FIELDS.

ONLY LMTG FACTOR (FOR TIME BEING) OVER CWA IS A SMALL CAPPING
INVERSION 750MB, INDICATED BY ARRIVING A/C FROM ANCHORAGE INTO SDF
AT 15Z. RUC FCSTS THIS 750MB PRE FRONTAL WARM PLUME TO RESIDE OVER
CWA TIL 20-21Z, THEN COLLAPSE AT STG FRONTAL DYNAMICS AND
INSTABILITY PUSHES INTO CWA. ANOTHER INTERESTING THING TO NOTE IS
RUC/ETA FCSTING SUBTLE SFC WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG FRONT OVER WRN TN
00Z/MON, WHICH WOULD ACT TO ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL HELICITIES,
SUPERCELLULAR POTENTIAL, AND OVERALL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DOWN IN
SRN KY FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED TORNADOES LOOK
TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. PER CURRENT RADAR TRENDS, SOME POST
FRONTAL STRATIFORM PCPN WILL LIKELY FOLLOW DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TS COMPLEX SHOULD PUSH EWD AND EXIT LMK CWA IN THE WEE HOURS MONDAY
MORNING. KEEPING IT BRIEF HERE, NEXT WX STORY IS SFC LOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS SERN CONUS TUE AM, WITH POSITIVE FEEDBACK RESPONSE DEEPENING
MID-LEVEL TROF OVER CWA. LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THOSE COOL, RAW, AND
CLOUDY DAYS TUE WITH NLY SFC FLOW. GIVEN FCST L/RS WITHIN TROF
AXIS, SOME SPRINKLES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, BUT WILL LEAVE ZFP DRY
FOR NOW. CLIPPER TYPE SFC LOW RACES ACROSS GREAT LAKES THU-FRI, WITH
ATTENDANT CF FCST BY 12Z GFS TO SLIDE INTO LMK CWA DURING SAID
PERIOD. DECENT DYNAMICS AND SOME MOISTURE SUGGEST CHCS OF PCPN OVER
CWA.

.SDF...NONE.

XXV

Hazardous weather outlook, Nov 10, 11:15 AM CST, 5 hours 47 minutes before

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-111200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1215 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...

A POTENTIALLY VERY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION IS SETTING UP ACROSS
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY TODAY WITH A MAJOR SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS INDICATED THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64...WITH
A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THAT AREA.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ORGANIZE INTO A SQUALL LINE WHICH WILL MOVE IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE ATMOSPHERE IS
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL TURNING OF
THE WINDS...ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGH RISK AREA ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA MUST REVIEW
SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES NOW AND HAVE A PLAN OF ACTION READY WHEN
SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPS IN YOUR AREA. LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
OR COMMERCIAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS AND
STATEMENTS CONCERNING THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VLD

In the hours before

Local storm report, Nov 10, 4:20 PM CST, 42 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY
520 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2002

TIME(EST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0500 PM    FREDERICKBURG             IN   WIND DAMAGE
11/10/02   WASHINGTON                     NUMEROUS ROOFS OFF HOUSES.
                                          WIDESPREAD DAMAGE

LD

Local storm report, Nov 10, 4:27 PM CST, 35 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY
527 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2002

TIME(EST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0525 PM    3 S CORYDON               IN   60 MPH TSTM WIND GUST
11/10/02   HARRISON                       FROM HAM RADIO OPERATOR.

0525 PM    3 SW CORYDON              IN   .88 INCH HAIL
11/10/02   HARRISON                       FROM HAM RADIO OPERATOR.

LD

Local storm report, Nov 10, 4:30 PM CST, 32 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY
530 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2002

TIME(EST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0520 PM    THOMPKINSVILLE            KY   WIND DAMAGE
11/10/02   MONROE                         POWER LINES DOWNED.
                                          REPORTED BY DISPATCH

LD

Local storm report, Nov 10, 4:46 PM CST, 16 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY
546 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2002

TIME(EST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0530 PM    MARENGO                   IN   WIND DAMAGE
11/10/02   CRAWFORD                       TREES DOWNED

0530 PM    CREELSBORO                KY   WIND DAMAGE
11/10/02   RUSSELL                        TREES DOWNED SOUTHERN
                                          PORTION OF COUNTY

0540 PM    LANESVILLE                IN   .75 INCH HAIL
11/10/02   HARRISON

0545 PM    LANESVILLE                IN   .75 INCH HAIL
11/10/02   HARRISON

LD

Local storm report, Nov 10, 4:48 PM CST, 14 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY
548 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2002

TIME(EST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0545 PM    GEORGETOWN                IN   .75 INCH HAIL
11/10/02   FLOYD

LD

Local storm report, Nov 10, 5:01 PM CST, 1 minute before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY
601 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2002

TIME(EST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0555 PM    CHARLESTOWN               IN   .88 INCH HAIL
11/10/02   CLARK                          HAIL INCREASED FROM DIME
                                          TO NICKEL SIZE

LD

The office that day

Everything else NWS Louisville, KY issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Nov 9, 11:48 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Ohio	27 min
Nov 10, 12:46 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Hancock	29 min
Nov 10, 1:05 AM CST	Tornado Warning	LMK	Warren	30 min
Nov 10, 1:12 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Logan, Simpson	33 min
Nov 10, 1:16 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Hancock	29 min
Nov 10, 1:45 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Barren, Edmonson, Hart	30 min
Nov 10, 1:52 AM CST	Tornado Warning	LMK	Allen, Simpson	23 min
Nov 10, 1:57 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Breckinridge	33 min
Nov 10, 2:19 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Allen	26 min
Nov 10, 2:32 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Hardin	43 min
Nov 10, 2:39 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Green, Taylor	36 min
Nov 10, 3:08 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Boyle, Mercer	22 min
Nov 10, 3:37 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Monroe	28 min
Nov 10, 3:44 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Clinton, Cumberland	36 min
Nov 10, 3:45 PM CST	Tornado Warning	LMK	Hancock	50 min
Nov 10, 3:56 PM CST	Tornado Warning	LMK	Clinton, Cumberland	34 min
Nov 10, 4:05 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Russell	30 min
Nov 10, 4:07 PM CST	Tornado Warning	LMK	Breckinridge, Meade	43 min
Nov 10, 4:12 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Monroe	33 min
Nov 10, 4:34 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Cumberland	26 min
Nov 10, 4:43 PM CST	Tornado Warning	LMK	Jefferson	37 min
Nov 10, 4:51 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Breckinridge	24 min
Nov 10, 4:52 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Oldham	38 min
Nov 10, 5:06 PM CST	Tornado Warning	LMK	Oldham	29 min
Nov 10, 5:08 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Meade	37 min
Nov 10, 5:13 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Henry, Trimble	47 min
Nov 10, 5:44 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Jefferson	21 min
Nov 10, 5:51 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Shelby	29 min
Nov 10, 5:53 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Logan	22 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kentucky, 2002 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; verification from NCEI's Storm Data; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.