Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 2002

Flash Flood Warning 35, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

July 10, 2002Navajo County, Arizona

NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Jul 10, 2002, 3:28 PM MDT for Navajo County, Arizona. It was in force for 107 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jul 10, 2002, 3:28 PM MDT (21:28 UTC)
Expired
Jul 10, 2002, 5:15 PM MDT
In force
107 min
Issued by
NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Area
Whole counties

County Navajo County, AZ

The radar

The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 122 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:30 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 12:00Z, 9.5 hours before the alert went out and 136 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Flgstf/Belemont, AZ at 12:00Z on 2002-07-10Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 36 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Flgstf/Belemont, AZ at 12:00Z on 2002-07-10The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 5 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
36 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-213 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1779 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
18 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
5 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
63 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS55 KFGZ 102128
FFWFGZ
AZC017-110015-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
228 PM MST WED JUL 10 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...SOUTHERN NAVAJO AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN 
GILA COUNTIES...SPECIFICALLY IN AND AROUND THE SITE OF THE 
CHEDISKI-RODEO WILDFIRE...

* UNTIL 515 PM MST

* AT 225 PM MST...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY
  RAIN 12 MILES NORTH OF CIBECUE...OR ABOUT 16 MILES SOUTHEAST OF   
HEBER-OVERGAARD...SLOWLY MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH.

* THIS INCLUDES THE COMMUNITIES OF:

 CIBECUE
 CARRIZO
 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE CHEDISKI-RODEO 
FIRE SITE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING HEAVY 
DOWNPOURS WITH RAINFALL RATES FROM ONE HALF TO ONE INCH PER HOUR. 
WHILE THIS WOULD NORMALLY NOT PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING...THE WILDFIRE 
HAS CHANGED THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE SOIL SO THAT FLASH FLOODING 
IS NOW MUCH MORE LIKELY. 

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE. IF YOUR VEHICLE STALLS, ABANDON IT IMMEDIATELY AND SEEK
HIGHER GROUND.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 10, 11:05 AM MDT, 4 hours 23 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 10, 11:05 AM MDT, 4 hours 23 minutes before
NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1005 AM MST WED JUL 10 2002

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT A MOIST
NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW TO CONTINUE...WHICH WILL RESULT IN DAILY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.DISCUSSION...CIRCULATION PATTERN REMAINS MORE OR LESS THE SAME OVER
ARIZONA TODAY. A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH MOVED THROUGH
CENTRAL ARIZONA LAST NIGHT HAS SPLIT INTO TWO PIECES. ONE PIECE WILL
MOVE TOWARDS YUMA TODAY...WHILE THE SECOND IS STALLED OVER THE
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY/EASTERN RIM AREA. THE LOWER LEVEL ROTATION OVER
THE RIM WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND LOCALLY HEAVY
CONVECTION TODAY. EXPECT THAT THE RIM AREAS...AND EVENTUALLY INTO
YAVAPAI COUNTY...WILL BE THE FOCUS TODAY. ZONES LOOK OK...WILL BE
ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY...AND WEEK FOR THE MATTER. PETERSON.

.FGZ...FFA FOR AREAS IN AND AROUND THE CHEDISKI-RODEO FIRE UNTIL
       10 PM MST.

.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA

CITY             TEMPERATURES HI/LO           PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
                 TDY TON   THU     FRI        TDY TON   THU   FRI
FLAGSTAFF        083/057 082/055 084/054      040 050 040 040 030 030
WINSLOW          093/068 094/068 095/065      040 050 040 030 020 020
PRESCOTT         093/066 093/066 095/064      050 050 040 040 040 030
PAGE             100/076 097/075 099/073      040 040 030 030 030 020
WINDOW ROCK      084/055 083/054 085/053      060 060 040 040 030 030
CANYON DE CHELLY 095/070 092/069 091/068      040 050 040 030 030 020
COTTONWOOD       104/070 104/071 106/069      040 040 030 030 030 020
GRAND CANYON     085/056 084/054 086/053      040 040 030 030 030 020
GREER            079/053 078/051 080/050      060 050 050 040 030 050
HEBER            088/064 087/066 089/066      060 050 050 040 030 030
JACOB LAKE       081/057 080/055 082/054      040 040 030 030 030 030
NAVAJO N.M.      090/069 087/068 086/067      040 060 040 030 020 020
PAYSON           097/066 095/067 094/065      050 040 040 030 030 030
SEDONA           098/072 094/072 094/070      040 040 040 050 040 040
SELIGMAN         100/059 096/059 096/057      040 040 030 030 030 020
SHOW LOW         089/065 088/063 090/062      060 050 050 040 030 030
ST. JOHNS        087/063 088/063 089/060      050 050 050 040 030 030
WUPATKI N.M.     099/071 097/071 095/068      040 050 040 030 030 030

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 10, 10:45 AM MDT, 4 hours 43 minutes before
AZZ004>018-037>040-101930-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
945 AM MST WED JUL 10 2002

...WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ARIZONA TODAY...WITH SOME HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE MOGOLLON
RIM AND YAVAPAI COUNTY...

A MOIST FLOW PATTERN COMBINED WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE RULE TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
THIS AFTERNOON. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVER PORTIONS OF THE RIM
AS WELL AS YAVAPAI COUNTY. THESE SAME AREAS WILL FEATURE SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS TODAY...WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS BEING
THE PRIMARY THREAT. OTHER AREAS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL MAINLY
EXPERIENCE LIGHTER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WITH LESS
AREAL COVERAGE.

BURNED AREA RAIN OUTLOOK...
SMALL AMOUNTS OF RAIN CAN CAUSE FLASH FLOODING IN BURNED OUT AREAS.
SINCE THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE RAIN IS HIGH ACROSS THE RODEO FIRE SITE
TODAY...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. THE WATCH WILL BE VALID
UNTIL 10 PM MST TONIGHT.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 9, 6:11 PM MDTFlash Flood WarningFGZCoconino, Gila, Navajo5 hr
Jul 9, 6:22 PM MDTFlash Flood WarningFGZCoconino, Gila, Navajo6 hr
Jul 10, 3:28 PM MDTFlash Flood WarningFGZNavajo3 hr
Jul 10, 5:17 PM MDTFlash Flood WarningFGZGila, Navajo
Jul 10, 5:17 PM MDTFlash Flood WarningFGZGila, Navajo118 min
Jul 10, 5:20 PM MDTFlash Flood WarningFGZGila, Navajo3 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 2002Every flash flood warning in 2002

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.