Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 2002
Flash Flood Warning 35, NWS Flagstaff, AZ
NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Jul 10, 2002, 3:28 PM MDT for Navajo County, Arizona. It was in force for 107 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 10, 2002, 3:28 PM MDT (21:28 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 10, 2002, 5:15 PM MDT
- In force
- 107 min
- Issued by
- NWS Flagstaff, AZ
- Area
- Whole counties
County Navajo County, AZ
The radar
The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 122 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:30 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 12:00Z, 9.5 hours before the alert went out and 136 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 36 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -213 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1779 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 18 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 5 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 63 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WGUS55 KFGZ 102128 FFWFGZ AZC017-110015- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 228 PM MST WED JUL 10 2002 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...SOUTHERN NAVAJO AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN GILA COUNTIES...SPECIFICALLY IN AND AROUND THE SITE OF THE CHEDISKI-RODEO WILDFIRE... * UNTIL 515 PM MST * AT 225 PM MST...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY RAIN 12 MILES NORTH OF CIBECUE...OR ABOUT 16 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HEBER-OVERGAARD...SLOWLY MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH. * THIS INCLUDES THE COMMUNITIES OF: CIBECUE CARRIZO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE CHEDISKI-RODEO FIRE SITE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH RAINFALL RATES FROM ONE HALF TO ONE INCH PER HOUR. WHILE THIS WOULD NORMALLY NOT PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING...THE WILDFIRE HAS CHANGED THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE SOIL SO THAT FLASH FLOODING IS NOW MUCH MORE LIKELY. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY AUTOMOBILE. IF YOUR VEHICLE STALLS, ABANDON IT IMMEDIATELY AND SEEK HIGHER GROUND. TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 10, 11:05 AM MDT, 4 hours 23 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 10, 11:05 AM MDT, 4 hours 23 minutes before
NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1005 AM MST WED JUL 10 2002
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT A MOIST
NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW TO CONTINUE...WHICH WILL RESULT IN DAILY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
.DISCUSSION...CIRCULATION PATTERN REMAINS MORE OR LESS THE SAME OVER
ARIZONA TODAY. A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH MOVED THROUGH
CENTRAL ARIZONA LAST NIGHT HAS SPLIT INTO TWO PIECES. ONE PIECE WILL
MOVE TOWARDS YUMA TODAY...WHILE THE SECOND IS STALLED OVER THE
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY/EASTERN RIM AREA. THE LOWER LEVEL ROTATION OVER
THE RIM WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND LOCALLY HEAVY
CONVECTION TODAY. EXPECT THAT THE RIM AREAS...AND EVENTUALLY INTO
YAVAPAI COUNTY...WILL BE THE FOCUS TODAY. ZONES LOOK OK...WILL BE
ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY...AND WEEK FOR THE MATTER. PETERSON.
.FGZ...FFA FOR AREAS IN AND AROUND THE CHEDISKI-RODEO FIRE UNTIL
10 PM MST.
.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA
CITY TEMPERATURES HI/LO PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
TDY TON THU FRI TDY TON THU FRI
FLAGSTAFF 083/057 082/055 084/054 040 050 040 040 030 030
WINSLOW 093/068 094/068 095/065 040 050 040 030 020 020
PRESCOTT 093/066 093/066 095/064 050 050 040 040 040 030
PAGE 100/076 097/075 099/073 040 040 030 030 030 020
WINDOW ROCK 084/055 083/054 085/053 060 060 040 040 030 030
CANYON DE CHELLY 095/070 092/069 091/068 040 050 040 030 030 020
COTTONWOOD 104/070 104/071 106/069 040 040 030 030 030 020
GRAND CANYON 085/056 084/054 086/053 040 040 030 030 030 020
GREER 079/053 078/051 080/050 060 050 050 040 030 050
HEBER 088/064 087/066 089/066 060 050 050 040 030 030
JACOB LAKE 081/057 080/055 082/054 040 040 030 030 030 030
NAVAJO N.M. 090/069 087/068 086/067 040 060 040 030 020 020
PAYSON 097/066 095/067 094/065 050 040 040 030 030 030
SEDONA 098/072 094/072 094/070 040 040 040 050 040 040
SELIGMAN 100/059 096/059 096/057 040 040 030 030 030 020
SHOW LOW 089/065 088/063 090/062 060 050 050 040 030 030
ST. JOHNS 087/063 088/063 089/060 050 050 050 040 030 030
WUPATKI N.M. 099/071 097/071 095/068 040 050 040 030 030 030In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jul 10, 10:45 AM MDT, 4 hours 43 minutes before
AZZ004>018-037>040-101930- HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 945 AM MST WED JUL 10 2002 ...WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA TODAY...WITH SOME HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE MOGOLLON RIM AND YAVAPAI COUNTY... A MOIST FLOW PATTERN COMBINED WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVER PORTIONS OF THE RIM AS WELL AS YAVAPAI COUNTY. THESE SAME AREAS WILL FEATURE SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS TODAY...WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. OTHER AREAS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL MAINLY EXPERIENCE LIGHTER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WITH LESS AREAL COVERAGE. BURNED AREA RAIN OUTLOOK... SMALL AMOUNTS OF RAIN CAN CAUSE FLASH FLOODING IN BURNED OUT AREAS. SINCE THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE RAIN IS HIGH ACROSS THE RODEO FIRE SITE TODAY...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. THE WATCH WILL BE VALID UNTIL 10 PM MST TONIGHT.
The office that day
Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 9, 6:11 PM MDT | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Coconino, Gila, Navajo | 5 hr |
| Jul 9, 6:22 PM MDT | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Coconino, Gila, Navajo | 6 hr |
| Jul 10, 3:28 PM MDT | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Navajo | 3 hr |
| Jul 10, 5:17 PM MDT | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Gila, Navajo | |
| Jul 10, 5:17 PM MDT | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Gila, Navajo | 118 min |
| Jul 10, 5:20 PM MDT | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Gila, Navajo | 3 hr |
Nearby
Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 2002Every flash flood warning in 2002
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.