Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 2002

Flash Flood Warning 36, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

July 10, 2002Gila County, Navajo County, Arizona

NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Jul 10, 2002, 4:17 PM MST for Gila County, Navajo County, Arizona. It was in force for . No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 10, 2002, 4:17 PM MST (23:17 UTC)
Expired
Jul 10, 2002, 4:15 PM MST
In force
Issued by
NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Area
Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Gila County, AZ, Navajo County, AZ

The radar

The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 77 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:20 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Phoenix, AZ (KPSR), launched 12:00Z, 11.3 hours before the alert went out and 164 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Phoenix, AZ at 12:00Z on 2002-07-10Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 67 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Phoenix, AZ at 12:00Z on 2002-07-10The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -7 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
67 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-479 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
2618 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
10 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-7 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
45 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS55 KFGZ 110150 CCA
FFWFGZ
AZC007-017-110145-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING...UPDATED TO ADD LAT/LON 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
417 PM MST WED JUL 10 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  NORTH CENTRAL GILA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA
  SOUTHWESTERN NAVAJO COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ARIZONA
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF HEBER-OVERGAARD

* UNTIL 515 PM MST

* AT 417 PM MST...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY
  RAIN 30 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PINEDALE...OR ABOUT 31 MILES WEST OF
  WHITERIVER.  THE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WITH EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL AFFECT OR PASS CLOSE
TO...
RURAL SOUTHWESTERN NAVAJO COUNTY AT 720 PM MST
RURAL NORTHERN GILA COUNTY AT 720 PM MST

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE. IF YOUR VEHICLE STALLS, ABANDON IT IMMEDIATELY AND SEEK
HIGHER GROUND.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

LAT...LON 3413 11082 3405 11049 3405 11015 3419 11009
          3430 11011 3441 11035 3444 11064 3430 11078

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 10, 2:45 PM MST, 1 hour 32 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 10, 2:45 PM MST, 1 hour 32 minutes before
NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
245 PM MST WED JUL 10 2002

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT A MOIST
NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW TO CONTINUE...WHICH WILL RESULT IN DAILY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.DISCUSSION...STORMS UNDERWAY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TWO DISTINCT
AREAS ON THE SCOPE. THE FIRST (WESTERN) AREA IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
OLD MID LEVEL WAVE FROM LAST NIGHT...WITH THE SECOND AREA DEVELOPING
IN THE EAST. THIS AREA DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER EASTERLY WAVE
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THIS WAVE WILL DRIVE STORMS
THROUGH TONIGHT...AND AGAIN PRODUCE ACTIVE WEATHER IN CENTRAL
ARIZONA THURSDAY. ASIDE FROM THIS...THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WITH A STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE
FORECASTABLE FUTURE. THIS WILL KEEP ALL ZONES IN A MEDIUM GRADE
MONSOON FORECAST THROUGH DAY SEVEN. HEAVY RAINS OVER THE FIRE AREAS
HAVE PROMPTED WARNINGS TODAY...WILL OBVIOUSLY KEEP THE WATCH GOING
FOR THIS REASON. PETERSON.

.FGZ...FFA FOR AREAS IN AND AROUND THE CHEDISKI-RODEO FIRE UNTIL
       10 PM MST.

.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA

CITY             TEMPERATURES LO/HI           PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
                 TON THU   FRI     SAT        TON THU   FRI     SAT
FLAGSTAFF        055/083 056/084 055/084      040 040 030 040 030 040
WINSLOW          064/091 065/092 065/092      030 030 030 030 030 030
PRESCOTT         064/089 065/090 065/090      040 040 030 040 030 040
PAGE             074/098 075/099 075/099      020 030 020 030 020 030
WINDOW ROCK      051/084 052/085 052/085      030 040 030 040 030 040
CANYON DE CHELLY 059/090 060/091 060/091      020 020 020 020 020 030
COTTONWOOD       072/100 073/101 073/101      040 040 030 040 030 040
GRAND CANYON     055/084 056/085 055/085      030 040 030 040 030 040
GREER            052/078 053/079 052/079      050 050 040 050 040 050
HEBER            057/088 058/089 057/089      050 050 040 050 040 050
JACOB LAKE       055/081 056/082 055/082      030 030 030 030 030 030
NAVAJO N.M.      056/084 057/085 057/085      020 030 020 030 020 030
PAYSON           065/093 066/094 066/094      040 040 030 040 030 040
SEDONA           070/097 071/098 071/098      040 040 030 040 030 040
SELIGMAN         057/092 058/093 058/093      030 040 030 040 030 040
SHOW LOW         063/088 064/089 063/089      050 050 040 050 040 050
ST. JOHNS        059/086 060/087 060/087      040 040 030 040 030 040
WUPATKI N.M.     065/093 066/094 066/094      030 030 030 030 030 030

The office that day

Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 9, 5:11 PM MSTFlash Flood WarningFGZCoconino, Gila, Navajo5 hr
Jul 9, 5:22 PM MSTFlash Flood WarningFGZCoconino, Gila, Navajo6 hr
Jul 10, 2:28 PM MSTFlash Flood WarningFGZNavajo3 hr
Jul 10, 2:28 PM MSTFlash Flood WarningFGZNavajo107 min
Jul 10, 4:17 PM MSTFlash Flood WarningFGZGila, Navajo118 min
Jul 10, 4:20 PM MSTFlash Flood WarningFGZGila, Navajo3 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 2002Every flash flood warning in 2002

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.