Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 2002
Flash Flood Warning 34, NWS Flagstaff, AZ
NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Jul 9, 2002, 5:11 PM MST for Coconino County, Gila County, Navajo County, Arizona. It was in force for 5 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 9, 2002, 5:11 PM MST (00:11 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 9, 2002, 10:15 PM MST
- In force
- 5 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Flagstaff, AZ
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
Counties Coconino County, AZ, Gila County, AZ, Navajo County, AZ
The radar
The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 77 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:15 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 00:00Z, 0.2 hours before the alert went out and 164 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 308 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -7 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 3003 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 1 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -22 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -11 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000
WGUS55 KFGZ 100022
FFWFGZ
AZC005-007-017-100615-
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
511 PM MST TUE JUL 9 2002
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...SOUTHERN NAVAJO AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
GILA COUNTIES...SPECIFICALLY IN AND AROUND THE SITE OF THE
CHEDISKI-RODEO WILDFIRE...FROM 515 PM MST UNTIL 1115 PM MST.
* THIS INCLUDES THE COMMUNITIES OF:
CIBECUE
TIMBERLAND ACRES
PINEDALE
CLAY SPRINGS
HEBER
CARRIZO
SHOW LOW
PINETOP-LAKESIDE
ARIPINE
LINDEN
* UNTIL 1115 PM MST
* WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED TO
LAST WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING
HEAVY DOWNPOURS OVER THE SITE OF THE CHEDISKI-RODEO WILDFIRE.
RAINFALL RATES FROM ONE HALF TO ONE INCH PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE.
WHILE THIS WOULD NORMALLY NOT PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING...THE WILDFIRE
HAS CHANGED THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE SOIL SO THAT FLASH FLOODING
IS NOW MUCH MORE LIKELY.
A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE. IF YOUR VEHICLE STALLS, ABANDON IT IMMEDIATELY AND SEEK
HIGHER GROUND.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
LAT...LON 3441 11088 3406 11084 3395 11039 3404 10996
3428 10997 3444 11015 3448 11050What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 9, 2:30 PM MST, 2 hours 41 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 9, 2:30 PM MST, 2 hours 41 minutes before
NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST TUE JUL 09 2002
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT
BASIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THIS
SYSTEM WILL FUEL DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS PATTERN WILL
PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT.
.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE CONTINUING TO INCREASE OVER THE CWA. DPS
ACROSS THE CWA RANGING BTWN 45 AND 55 DEGREES. NOAA/FSL GPS IPWV
INDICATING PW VALUES CLOSE TO .85 INCHES ATTM. CONVECTION HAS FIRED
UP OVER THE RIM AND NEAR THE N.M. BORDER AND THE FLOW SHOULD CARRY
THIS ACTIVITY INTO EASTERN AZ DURING THE AFTERNOON. ETA AND AVN
INDICATING VORT MAX ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CWA THIS EVENING. EXPECT CONVECTION THRU MOST
OF THE NIGHT THERE. BIG DIFFERENCES BTWN ETA AND AVN REGARDING QPF
BUT BOTH MODELS TARGETING THE SAME AREAS (SOUTHERN RIM/WHITES)
FOR HEAVIEST RAINFALL. HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
CHEDISKI-RODEO FIRE SITE THRU EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEE LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS PERIOD. MOIST EASTERLY FLOW
AROUND GREAT BASIN HIGH TO CONTINUE. ATMOSPHERE STAYS UNSTABLE PER
LIS/CAPE/OMEGA PROGS WITH EMBEDDED S/WVS ROTATING ACROSS THE
STATE. EXPECT PATTERN OF DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE.
EXTEND...STRONG H5 HIGH OVER GREAT BASIN PROGGED TO DRIFT EASTWARD
OVER THE WEEKEND. FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY TAPPING MOISTURE OVER
OLE MEXICO. TROPICAL STORM MOVING UP WEST COAST OF BAJA LIKELY TO
CONTRIBUTE MORE MOISTURE TO THE FLOW. WILL KEEP THE STANDARD MONSOON
FCST OF SHOWERS/TSTMS EACH DAY. DF
.FGZ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS IN AND AROUND THE CHEDISKI-RODEO
FIRE SITE IN ZONES 16...17...18.
.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA
CITY TEMPERATURES LO/HI PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
TON WED THU FRI TON WED THU FRI
FLAGSTAFF 055/083 057/081 055/082 050 040 050 040 030 030
WINSLOW 070/093 068/092 068/093 040 060 050 030 030 020
PRESCOTT 067/093 064/090 066/091 040 050 040 040 030 030
PAGE 077/100 075/097 076/098 030 030 040 030 030 020
WINDOW ROCK 055/084 052/082 053/083 060 060 050 050 040 040
CANYON DE CHELLY 070/092 069/091 068/091 050 040 050 040 040 030
COTTONWOOD 070/104 071/101 069/102 030 040 030 030 020 020
GRAND CANYON 054/085 056/083 054/084 030 030 040 030 040 020
GREER 051/079 053/077 051/078 050 060 050 050 050 050
HEBER 064/088 066/086 066/087 050 060 050 050 040 040
JACOB LAKE 055/081 057/079 055/080 030 030 040 030 040 040
NAVAJO N.M. 069/087 068/086 067/086 050 050 040 040 030 030
PAYSON 066/095 067/094 067/094 050 040 050 040 050 030
SEDONA 073/094 070/094 072/094 040 040 040 050 040 040
SELIGMAN 059/096 057/096 059/096 030 040 030 030 020 020
SHOW LOW 065/089 065/087 063/088 050 050 050 050 050 030
ST. JOHNS 065/087 063/086 063/087 050 060 050 040 050 040
WUPATKI N.M. 073/097 071/095 071/095 040 040 040 050 040 040The office that day
Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 9, 5:22 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Coconino, Gila, Navajo | 6 hr |
| Jul 10, 2:28 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Navajo | 3 hr |
| Jul 10, 2:28 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Navajo | 107 min |
| Jul 10, 4:17 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Gila, Navajo | |
| Jul 10, 4:17 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Gila, Navajo | 118 min |
| Jul 10, 4:20 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Gila, Navajo | 3 hr |
Nearby
Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 2002Every flash flood warning in 2002
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.