Alert archive / North Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 351, NWS Grand Forks, ND

September 18, 2002Cass County, North Dakota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Sep 18, 2002, 5:16 PM CDT for Cass County, North Dakota. It was in force for 44 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Sep 18, 2002, 5:16 PM CDT (22:16 UTC)
Expired: Sep 18, 2002, 6:00 PM CDT
In force: 44 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Forks, ND
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Cass County, ND

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 73 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:18 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Aberdeen, SD (KABR), launched 12:00Z, 10.3 hours before the alert went out and 235 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 613 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -190 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 786 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 34 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 60 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 53 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

227 
WUUS53 KFGF 182216
SVRFAR
NDC017-182300-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
516 PM CDT WED SEP 18 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

  CASS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.

* UNTIL 600 PM CDT.

* AT 513 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES WEST OF WEST FARGO...OR ABOUT 7 MILES
  WEST OF FARGO...MOVEMENT WAS TO THE NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...

  WEST FARGO AT 520 PM...
  REILES ACRES AT 525 PM...
  ERIE AT 530 PM AND
  HARWOOD AT 535 PM.

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

LAT...LON 4664 9764 4666 9684 4722 9688 4722 9767


55

NNNN

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Sep 18, 3:20 PM CDT, 1 hour 56 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 18, 3:20 PM CDT, 1 hour 56 minutes before

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
320 PM CDT WED SEP 18 2002

FCST CHALLENGE IS SVR CHANCES THIS EVENING AND TEMPS. GRIDDS AND
WRKFGF ALREADY OUT.

SFC LOW NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY JUST SOUTHEAST OF BISMARCK AWAITING
UPSTREAM ENERGY TO KICK IT NORTHEAST TONIGHT.  ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS TO ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO NR 80 IN SE ND AND THIS COMBINED
WITH LOW 60 DEW PTS SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD SVR CELLS MID AFTN.  EXPECT
SFC LOW TO TRACK NORTHEAST TONIGHT...18Z MESO ETA TAKES IT ALONG
JAMESTOWN TO MAYVILLE TO NEAR BAUDETTE LINE BY 12Z.  ACTIVITY SOUTH
OF LOW WILL BE SCATTERED TONIGHT WITH ISOLD SVR CELLS (MAINLY
HAILERS) THIS EVENING.  COORD WITH SPC.  NORTH OF SFC LOW MORE
WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA WILL FALL FROM DVL ZONE INTO SRN MANITOBA.

MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST CLEARING WILL OCCUR THURSDAY.  WILL GO
LIKELY VALLEY EAST THU MORNING THEN BRING CLEARING IN FROM WEST
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.  TEMPS WILL TRY TO WARM BACK TO NR 70 IN
ERN ND.

ON FRIDAY...NEXT FRONT WILL COME DOWN PASSING THRU CWFA IN THE
AFTN.  THINK AVN TOO AGRESSIVE WITH DROPPING 85H TEMPS TO NR ZERO BY
60HRS AND PREFER TAMER ETA.  QUICK BOOST IN TEMPS ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF
FRONT ON SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH LOW-MID 70S THEN STEADY OR FALLING
NORTH LATE.  MOISTURE LOOKS SCANT SO WILL REALLY LIMIT PCPN TO ONLY
THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES FRI AFTERNOON.  COOLER WX WILL THEN MOVE IN
FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY.  WILL GO MORE CLOUDS ALONG WITH LOW POP OF
SHOWERS IN THE ROX/BDE/BJI ZONE SATURDAY CLOSER TO COLDER 50H TEMPS
WHERE STRATOCU SHOULD FORM BY LATE MORNING.

.EXTENDED...THE NORTH AMERICAN UPPER TROUGH BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED
BY THE WEEKEND AND PERSISTS WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. A DRY NORTHERLY
FLOW AT LOW LEVELS WILL BRING A SUSTAINED ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EVEN WITH REINFORCING COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGES...AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO GENERATE ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THUS...NO PRECIPITATION WAS MENTIONED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

.FGF...NONE.

RIDDLE/BRAMER

In the hours before

Local storm report, Sep 18, 2:51 PM CDT, 2 hours 25 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
251 PM CDT WED SEP 18 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0245 PM    1 NW EMBDEN               ND   .75 INCH HAIL
09/18/02   CASS

Local storm report, Sep 18, 3:09 PM CDT, 2 hours 7 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
309 PM CDT WED SEP 18 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0305 PM    3 E BUFFALO               ND   .75 INCH HAIL
09/18/02   CASS

Local storm report, Sep 18, 3:52 PM CDT, 1 hour 24 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
352 PM CDT WED SEP 18 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0320 PM    PAGE                      ND   .75 INCH HAIL
09/18/02   CASS                           LASTED FOR 17 MINUTES

0351 PM    8 SE SHELDON              ND   1.75 INCH HAIL
09/18/02   RANSOM

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Sep 18, 2:21 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Cass	39 min
Sep 18, 3:00 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Cass	45 min
Sep 18, 3:35 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	FGF	Cass	6 hr
Sep 18, 3:46 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Cass, Ransom, Steele	44 min
Sep 18, 4:20 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Barnes	25 min
Sep 18, 4:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Richland	32 min
Sep 18, 4:32 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Cass	43 min
Sep 18, 5:37 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Richland	38 min
Sep 18, 6:19 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	FGF	Pembina	6 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Dakota, 2002 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.