Severe Thunderstorm Warning 345, NWS Grand Forks, ND

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1015 AM CDT WED SEP 18 2002

FCST CHALLENGE THIS AFTN/EVE IS SVR CHANCES AND TEMPS.

UPPER AIR/SFC SHOWS NEGATIVELY TILTED SYSTEM OVER NRN PLAINS.  SFC
LOW JUST SOUTH OF BISMARCK...WITH 85H LOW JUST WEST OF BISMARCK AND
50H LOW OVER SE MT.  TSRA/RAIN ASSOC JUST NW OF SFC LOW FROM DVL TO
DIK WITH ISOLD SVR CELLS WITH THIS BAND.  VILS OF 50 SEEMS TO BE
WORRISOME.  1 INCH HAIL WAS REPORTED WITH MID 50S VIL WEST OF
BISMARCK EARLIER THIS MORNING.  DEF ZONE PCPN WITH 50H SYSTEM OVER
ERN MT.

TREND OF THIS SYSTEM OVER PAST DAY IS IT TO TRACK FARTHER
WEST....AND CURRENT SFC/UPR AIR PATTERN SUGGEST THIS WILL BE THE
CASE WITH SYSTEM ALMOST BECOMING STACKED BY 00Z.  FEEL ETA WILL BE
TOO FAR SOUTH AND EAST WITH 06Z AVN TRACK OF THE LOW FROM WEST OF
JAMESTOWN TO NR GRAND FORKS LOOKING LIKE A MORE PROBABLE EVENT.

ELEVATED SVR CELLS PSBL THIS AFTN OVER DVL ZONE JUST ALONG WARM
FRONT...WITH SFC BASED CONVECTION PSBL OVER ECNTRL AND SE ND THIS
AFTN AS LOW DRIFTS NORTHEAST.  WILL WATCH TEMPS...AS VSBL SATELLITE
PIX SHOWS CLEAR SLOT WORKING INTO SE ND AND IF TEMPS WARM UP TO NR
80F THEN STUFF SHOULD FIRE.  SOUNDINGS SHOWS IF TEMPS HIT 80F THEN
LI/PWATS/LOW WBZ ALL WOULD SUPPORT HAILERS.

SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD RAINS JUST NORTH AND
WEST OF SFC LOW THRU DVL ZONE INTO SRN MANITOBA WITH 1+ INCH RAINS
LIKELY.

WILL LOOK OVER ZONES AND MAKE A FEW WORDING CHANGES.  WILL INTRODUCE
SVR WORDING TO SOME ERN ND ZONES THIS AFTN AND TWEEK TEMPS UP SOME
IN A FEW ZONES.

.FGF...NONE

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MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-181900-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...UDPATED
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
1100 AM CDT WED SEP 18 2002

...SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND FAR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST AND
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS EVENING...

SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA BY MIDNIGHT.  WARM AND MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE DEVILS LAKE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW OF
THESE BECOMING SEVERE.  OTHER THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY EAST INTO
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND A FEW OF THESE MAY BE
SEVERE.

AREA OF CONCERN...ALL OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

TIME...NOON PM TO 10 PM.

TYPE OF HAZARD...MAINLY LARGE HAIL WITH DAMAGING WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

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