Severe Thunderstorm Warning 58, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
328 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2002

DAYS 1-2...

THIS AFTERNOONS WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A JET MAX MIGRATING
NORTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. AREA WIND PROFILERS ALSO
SUPPORT THIS AS WELL. COLD FRONT STARTING TO LIGHT UP PER RADAR AND
VIS SAT DATA. SFC OBS SHOW BEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE TO THE FAR EASTERN CWA. AS THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
PASSES AND COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTH, THE CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION EXISTS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL
BE OVER THE EASTERN CWA TONIGHT. WITH THIS IN MIND, WILL KEEP POP
GRADIENT GOING FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT.

FOR SUNDAY...MID/UPPER TROP VORT THATS OVER AZ THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE EAST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. BEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
JUST TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE SOME
MID/UPPER MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR SHOWERS. THEREFORE, WILL SHOTGUN A
CHANCE POP FOR ALL CWA. WITH CAA AND PLENTIFUL CLOUD OVERHEAD, HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S FAR SOUTHEAST.

FOR MONDAY...WITH UPPER VORT TO OUR SOUTHEAST, CWA WILL BE UNDER
DOWNWARD MOTION. UPSHOT IS THAT SUNNY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL. WILL
PLAN TO GO ABOVE CURRENT MAV NUMBERS FOR HIGHS. PCPN NIL THIS PERIOD.

DAYS 3-7...

THE CURRENT EXTENDED LOOKED ON TRACK...FROM WHAT I HAVE BEEN ABLE TO
STUDY. ANALYSIS WAS SHORTENED TODAY DUE TO SEVERE POTENTIAL. TODAY/S
RUN OF THE AVN AND YESTERDAY/S ECMWF ARE SIMILAR THROUGH ABOUT
15/12Z TIME FRAME, THEN THE AVN SPEEDS UP THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF
THE UPPER LOW OVER MONTANA, WHILE ECMWF DIGS AND MOVES THIS LOW
PRESSURE CENTER AT SLOWER PACE, AND THUS DIGS A LARGER SCALE TROUGH
THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN STATES. WITH THIS IN MIND, WILL KEEP A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY PERIODS, BUT NOT IN NEWLY
INTRODUCED SATURDAY PERIOD. AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM, HIGH
TEMPS COULD GET PRETTY TOASTY WED AND THUR, AND CURRENT FORECAST
REFLECTS THIS.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC   44  52  38  74 /  70  30   0   0
GCK   45  57  41  77 /  50  30   0   0
EHA   44  55  40  80 /  30  30   0   0
LBL   45  57  41  77 /  50  30   0   0
HYS   44  52  38  74 /  70  30   0   0
P28   47  59  42  75 /  70  30   0   0

.DDC...NONE.

16/12

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY, KS
136 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0123 AM    16 ESE ULYSSES            KS   .75 INCH HAIL
05/11/02   GRANT                          REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT

0130 AM    16 N SUBLETTE             KS   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/11/02   HASKELL                        REPORTED BY PUBLIC

0140 AM    12 S GARDEN CITY          KS   .88 INCH HAIL
05/11/02   FINNEY                         REPORTED BY CO-OP
                                          OBSERVERS

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