Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
253 PM CDT FRI MAY 10 2002

DAYS 1-2...

WAA PATTERN CURRENTLY IN PLACE FROM NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WEST TO
EASTERN COLORADO. CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST TODAY.
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT IS HOW FAR WEST WILL WAA UPWARD VERT VELS
DEVELOP. MAIN WAA ZONE LOOKS TO SHIFT NORTHEAST OVER ICTS
CWA TONIGHT PER THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS. GIVEN OBSERVED TRENDS
AND MODEL OUTPUT WILL OPT TO GRADIENT POPS FROM LIKELY EAST TO
CHANCE WEST WITH IDEA THAT BULK OF PCPN WILL FALL OVER THE EXTREME
EASTERN CWA OVERNIGHT. CURRENT LOW FORECAST LOOKS GOOD, THUS WILL
NOT CHANGE.

FOR SATURDAY...1ST MID/UPPER TROP WAVE NOTED OVER THE AZ/NM BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON PER THE WATER VAPOR LOOP WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE CWA
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AS A RESULT, SURFACE WINDS SHOULD VEER
ACCORDINGLY. THEREFORE, HIGHS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S MOST
LOCALES. BY LATE IN THE DAY, SURFACE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CWA WILL BACK HELPING TO MOVE MOIST AIR AGAINST SOUTHWARD
MOVING COLD FRONT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING THANKS
TO THE COLD FRONT PROVIDING THE NEEDED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. WILL ONCE AGAIN GRADIENT POPS FROM HIGH TO LOW EAST TO
WEST FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MORNING SUNDAY.

FOR SUNDAY...ALL MODELS SHOWING UPPER VORT MOVING TO OUR SOUTH
DURING THE DAY. WITH COLD FRONT THROUGH ALL CWA BY SUNRISE, THE ONLY
POPS THAT WILL BE MENTIONED WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA TO
ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING SHOWERS. AS WAS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS SHIFT,
CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DEPARTING
CWA LATE. HIGHS FOR SUNDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.

FINALLY...SURFACE WINDS AFTER FROPA WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING SFC GRADIENT. UPSHOT HERE IS THAT WILL PLAN NOT TO CHANGE
WHAT PREVIOUS SHIFT CREATED IN THE GFE FOR SFC WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY MORNING APPEARS TO BE BREEZY/WINDY AS WELL.

DAYS 3-7...

W/V LOOP TODAY SHOWING SEVERAL WAVES LINING UP ACROSS THE NRN
PACIFIC. ALL MODELS DIFFERING ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF EACH WAVE,
BUT AGREE WITH RIDGING ALOFT BETWEEN THE FIRST SYSTEM EXITING THE
CNTL PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND THE NEXT SIG SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WRN
CONUS.

AS THIS RIDGING BEGINS ALOFT A SFC HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO OK,
THEN TX. WILL THEREFORE KEEP THE WARMUP GOING THROUGH MID WEEK AND
LEAVE FORECAST DRY.

MAIN QUESTION COMES LATE WEEK. ALL MODELS DO BEGIN TO DEVELOP AN
UPPER LVL TROF IN THE WRN CONUS/ERN PACIFIC EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK
BUT THE MRF, CANADIAN AND UKMET BRING THIS SYSTEM EASTWARD QUICKER
THAN THE ECMWF. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT CONVECTION IN THE INDIAN OCEAN
AND POS HT ANOMALIES IN THE CNTL PACIFIC WILL FAVOR THE ECMWF
SOLUTION DESPITE IT BEING THE ODD MAN OUT. THIS WILL KEEP OUR RIDGE
IN PLACE ALOFT OVER THE CNTL PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH SUGGESTS
THAT TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE THROUGH FRIDAY. WILL ALSO BE
SEEING A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERN BRANCH JET LATE IN THE WEEK AS WELL.
THIS NOT ONLY WILL BRING MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD LATE IN
THE WEEK BUT IT ALSO SUPPORTS A MENTION OF EVENING CONVECTION ON
LATE THURSDAY AS WELL AS FRIDAY. CHANCE FOR PCPN HOWEVER DOES LOOK
MORE FAVORABLE LATE FRIDAY.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC   56  84  45  62 /  40  40  40   0
GCK   57  88  48  67 /  40  30  40   0
EHA   55  89  45  69 /  20   0  20   0
LBL   57  88  48  67 /  40  40  40   0
HYS   56  84  45  62 /  70  40  40   0
P28   59  87  52  64 /  70  50  60  30

.DDC...NONE.

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