Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
255 PM MDT WED JUL 03 2002

SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN TDY AS
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVR THE SOUTHWEST USA HOLDS TOGETHER AND BEGINS
TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. MOISTURE HAS
BECOME ABUNDANT IN THE LAST 24 HRS ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE.
THE ADVERTIZED SHORTWAVE CONTAINS A FAIR AMNT OF MID AND UPPER LVL
MOISTURE AS THE WATER VAPOR CHANNEL AND DESERT AREA SOUNDINGS WOULD
CONFIRM. KFGZ AND KSLC HAVE MOISTENED THE BEST WITH GJT DOUBLING ITS
PRECIP WATER IN 12HRS. LOW LVL EASTERLY FLOW OVR THE PLAINS WILL
HOLD GOOD DEWPTS IN THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THURS. THE MID AN UPPER
LVL FLOW PATTERN OVR THE AREA BECOMES INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY WITH WINDS REMAINING WEAK. BOTTOM LINE IS
STORM MOTION WILL BE MUCH LIKE YESTDY WITH SLOW TO NRLY STATIONRY
MOVEMENT. WITH STORMS FIRING OVER THE HIGHER TRRN THIS EARLY AFTN
WILL KEEP SCT CHANCE OF STORMS FOR TONGT WITH LOCALLY HVY RAIN
AMNTS.
STRONGER JET LVL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE PACIFIC NW TROUGH
WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE STATE THURSDAY BUT THE AREA
WILL STILL BE MOSLTY INFLUENCED BY THE SLOW MOVING WEAKENING WAVE
ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF THE PAC TROF. AVN DIV-Q GRIDS SUGGEST A
SUSTAINED PD OF WEAK ASCENT FROM THURSDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. THIS
MAY TIP THE SCALE IN THE DIRECTION OF KEEPING THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
AFTN/EVE STORMS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS SFC MOISTURE HOLDS IN.
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOWER CAPE VALS FOR THURSDAY AFTN WITH A FAIR
AMNT OF CIN OVR THE AREA UNTIL THE LATE HOURS SUGGESTING THE
NOCTURNAL VARIETY OF STORMS AGAIN. REACHING THE 14TH DAY OF 90 DEGF
THURS MAY BE TOUGH IF CLOUDS DONT DISSIPATE ENTIRELY BY MORNING. BY
FRIDAY THE PACIFIC TROUGH RIDING JUST NORTH OF THE USA/CAN BORDER
WILL PUSH EASTWARD. THIS IS EXPECTED TO SEND DOWN A COLD FRONT
FOR LATER PDS. MOISTURE HOLDS OVR THE AREA FOR FRI AS THE FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE HIGHEST PRECIP VALUES AND AVN/ETA SPEC
HUMIDITIES INCREASE AS WELL AND GUIDANCE TEMPS INDICATING A COOLER
DAY THAN THURS. MESOETA DISAGREES WITH COOLING. WILL HOLD ON TO THE
SCT POPS FOR FRI AFTN/EVE. COOLEST DAY OF THE PD LOOKS TO BE
SATURDAY AS THE COOL SURGE ARRIVES IN THE EAST EARLY SATURDAY. 90S
IN DEN ARE VERY DOUBTFUL. SFC MOISTURE STAYS HIGH BUT COOLER AIR MAY
ACT TO STABILIZE THE PLAINS SAT. WITH THE EXACT TIMING AND STRENGTH
OF SURGE STILL UNCERTAIN WILL GO AHEAD WITH A CONTINUATION OF SCT
POPS WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND EASTERLY FLOW TO 650MB.

LONG TERM DISCUSSION: SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RIDGE BEGINS TO
DOMINATE THE WESTERN USA ONCE AGAIN BY LATE SUNDAY AS FCST TEMPS
TREND HIGHER. LOW LVL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EASTERLY AFTER
SATURDAYS FROPA. WILL KEEP CHANCE FOR STORMS ON SUNDAY WITH DAY 2
SCENARIO AND 700MB TEMPS REMAINING COOL ENOUGH ACCORDING TO THE AVN.
THE COLORADO AREA BECOMES DRYER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT FLOW
ALOFT TRENDS TO NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST REMAINING
HOT AND DRY. MRF BRINGS ANOTHER SURGE AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES DOWN
FROM A PASSING SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE FOR SHWRS/STORMS MON THRU WED.   FREDIN

.DEN...NONE

COZ030>051-032000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
1010 AM MDT WED JUL 3 2002

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES

ADAMS     ARAPAHOE  BOULDER     BROOMFIELD  CLEAR CREEK  DENVER
DOUGLAS   ELBERT    GILPIN      GRAND       JACKSON      JEFFERSON
LARIMER   LINCOLN   LOGAN       MORGAN      PARK         PHILLIPS
SEDGWICK  SUMMIT    WASHINGTON  WELD

SYNOPSIS: THE AIRMASS HAS BECOME MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE DURING THE
LAST 24 HOURS AS A PLUME OF MOISTURE HAS MOVED IN FROM THE SOUTH.
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO AND INTO THE FRONT RANGE
FOOTHILLS AND PARK COUNTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AS A RESULT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE
FRONT RANGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD AND DEVELOP
EASTWARD ONTO THE PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  STORM
MOVEMENT WILL BE VERY SLOW...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR.
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN INCH OF RAIN IN A 20 TO 30
MINUTE PERIOD.  IF A STRONGER STORM STALLS...SOME FLOODING PROBLEMS
MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR THE HAYMAN FIRE.

WIND SHEAR IN THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY WEAK...SO THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE LIMITED TO BRIEF AND ISOLATED OCCURRENCES.  THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL PRODUCE HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND
GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PLAINS...STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO
ISOLATED AS A STRONGER CAP EXISTS IN THE ATMOSPHERE.

THE OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY CALLS FOR SIMILAR CONDITIONS WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

BARJENBRUCH