Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
345 AM MDT WED JUL 03 2002

SHORT TERM DISCUSSION:  EACH DAY FOR THE PAST 3 DAYS THE CONVECTION
HAS BEEN A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH.  WITH WIND AND MOISTURE PROGS
TDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE MORE OF AREA WILL FINALLY SEE SOME RELIEF FROM
THE DRY HEAT.  BEST CHANCE OF TSTMS WILL BE IN AND NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS...PALMER DIVIDE AND URBAN CORRIDOR...BECAUSE OF SELY
UPSLOPE FORCING.  THIS AIRMASS HAS FAVORED EVNG CONVECTION...SO WILL
BEGIN STORMS IN AFTN...BUT RAISE POPS A LITTLE THIS EVNG.  LIGHT
STEERING WINDS WILL RESULT AN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS WE SAW LAST
EVNG.

THERMAL RIDGE HAS SHIFTED WWD AND WILL BE OVER MTNS TODAY.  THIS
WILL CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER TODAY.  IF TSTMS
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTN...COULD KEEP THE 90 DEGREE STREAK GOING HERE
IN DENVER...IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL.  MUCH OF NORTHEAST COLORADO
WILL AGAIN SEE LOW 90S TDY.

TNGT...MODELS INDICATE WEAK UPWARD FORCING TONGT...SO THIS ALSO
FAVORS CNVTN LATER INTO EVNG...AND PLENTY OF RESIDUAL CLDS OVNGT.
DEWPOINTS WILL AGAIN INCREASE WWD ON SELY WINDS ON PLAINS LATE TNGT.
RTG

LONG TERM DISCUSSION: WK S/W WL HV CLRD DIST BY ELY THURS...AND ATM
WL BE LRGLY DEVOID OF ANY WX FEATURES DURG THE DAY.  HWVR...ATM WL
STILL BE SOMEWHAT MOIST THURS AND THERMODYNAMIC INSTABILITY SHUD BE
ENUF TO TRIGGER SCT TSTMS IN THE AFTN.  LWR LVLS WL BE PERHAPS A LTL
DRIER THAN WED SINCE THE ELY AND SELY FLOW WL HV DCRSD.  THUS...
CNVCTN WL INITIATE ALG THE FTHILLS THEN MOV INTO THE PLAINS.  FLOW
ALF NRLY ZERO THO AND STORMS SHUD BE SHORT DURATION-PULSE VARIETY.
MAX TEMPS THURS SHUD BE QUITE SMLR TO WED. FRI...A VIGOROUS UPR TROF
WL MOV THRU THE NRN ROCKIES WHICH WL HELP SHOVE THE RDG AXIS A BIT
EWD.  A WK MID LVL LOW WHICH HAS BEEN SITTING OVR ERN AZ THE PAST
FEW DAYS WL MIGRATE EWD INTO NEW MEXICO.  PW VALUES RISE APPRECIABLY
FRI WITH DPR MSTR INVOF THIS FEATURE AND A SLGT INCR IN SLY FLOW FRI
SHUD TAKE SOME OF THIS MSTR INTO OUR AREA.  ATTM...SCT POPS LK OK
FRI.  AGAIN...MAX TEMPS SHUD STAY WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 90
LOCALLY.

BY SAT...H5 AXIS IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY AND RETROGRADE INTO WY.  A
DECENT LOOKING SURGE WILL THEN SPILL INTO THE NRN PLAINS DURG THE
DAY SAT.  THIS WL LEAD TO COOLER UPSLOPE FLOW.  TEMPS SHUD RETURN
INTO THE 80S.  IF THE 90S STREAK IS STILL ALIVE AFTER FRI...IT WL
MOST CERTAINLY BE OVER BY SAT.  ATM BLO H7 WL BE MORE STBL WHICH MAY
LIMIT AMT OF CONVECTION DESPITE DECENT AMTS OF MSTR.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...RDG WL CONT TO AMPLIFY INTO MT WITH ELY FLOW
DVLPG TO OUR S OVR AZ AND NEW MEXICO.  THIS MAY HELP STEER SOME
EASTERLY WAVES INTO OUR VCNTY BY MON...BUT IT/S TOO EARLY TO TELL
ATTM.  MEANWHILE...QUITE A BIT OF MSTR IS PROGGED BY THE AVN TO
BEGIN POOLING IN NRN MEXICO BY MON.  THIS IS QUITE TYPICAL TO SEE IN
THE SOUTHWEST THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO WE MAY BE SEEING SOME SIGNS OF
A TRANSITION TO A WETTER PTRN.  WL LV XTNDD PDS AS IS. 46

.DEN...NONE

COZ030>051-032000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
1010 AM MDT WED JUL 3 2002

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES

ADAMS     ARAPAHOE  BOULDER     BROOMFIELD  CLEAR CREEK  DENVER
DOUGLAS   ELBERT    GILPIN      GRAND       JACKSON      JEFFERSON
LARIMER   LINCOLN   LOGAN       MORGAN      PARK         PHILLIPS
SEDGWICK  SUMMIT    WASHINGTON  WELD

SYNOPSIS: THE AIRMASS HAS BECOME MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE DURING THE
LAST 24 HOURS AS A PLUME OF MOISTURE HAS MOVED IN FROM THE SOUTH.
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO AND INTO THE FRONT RANGE
FOOTHILLS AND PARK COUNTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AS A RESULT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE
FRONT RANGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD AND DEVELOP
EASTWARD ONTO THE PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  STORM
MOVEMENT WILL BE VERY SLOW...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR.
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN INCH OF RAIN IN A 20 TO 30
MINUTE PERIOD.  IF A STRONGER STORM STALLS...SOME FLOODING PROBLEMS
MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR THE HAYMAN FIRE.

WIND SHEAR IN THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY WEAK...SO THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE LIMITED TO BRIEF AND ISOLATED OCCURRENCES.  THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL PRODUCE HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND
GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PLAINS...STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO
ISOLATED AS A STRONGER CAP EXISTS IN THE ATMOSPHERE.

THE OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY CALLS FOR SIMILAR CONDITIONS WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

BARJENBRUCH