Severe Thunderstorm Warning 26, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
240 PM MDT TUE JUL 02 2002

SHORT TERM DISCUSSION:  GULF MOISTURE BEGINNING TO SHOW ITS COLORS
ACROSS MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AS DAYTIME HEATING WAS CREATING
DECENT BUILDUPS.  HOWEVER...LATEST RADAR SHOWING ONLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION.  LATEST ACARS SOUNDING STILL HANGING ON TO A WEAK CAP
AROUND 500 MB WHICH IS LIMITING DEVELOPMENT.  SURFACE WINDS FINALLY
TURNED TO NORTHEAST ALONG FOOTHILLS WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS NOT FAR
OFF.  CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE DUE TO UPSLOPE AND HIGHER MOISTURE.
MESO ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A BIT OF A CAP OVER
PLAINS...SO THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE LESS.  NOT ALOT OF
RAINFALL EXPECTED THIS EVENING.  STORMS SHOULD END THIS EVENING WITH
SKIES CLEARING OVERNIGHT.  WENT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE DUE TO
SOME CLOUD COVER.

ON WEDNESDAY....UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO HEAD TOWARD COLORADO FROM
SOUTHWEST AS BETTER GULF MOISTURE PUSHES INTO CWA.  SURFACE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SHOULD HELP TO INCREASE DEWPOINTS RIGHT UP TO
FOOTHILLS.  THUS...AFTERNOON STORMS A GOOD BET ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
AND THE CHANCES FOR RAIN HITTING THE BUCKET SHOULD ALSO INCREASE.
DUE TO THE WEAK WINDS ALOFT...ANY LINGERING STORMS COULD PRODUCE
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS.  STORMS SHOULD LAST INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
CLEARING OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS.  FINALLY A BREAK IN THE 90 DEGREE
STRING AS COOLER AIR AND CLOUD COVER GETS ENTRENCHED.  AVN GUIDANCE
SEEMS REASONABLE.

FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AMS SHOULD REMAIN MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AS 5H LOW HEADS TOWARD AREA.  MODELS INDICATE SOME
INDICATION OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE...BUT DIV-Q FIELDS RATHER MUDDLED.
ETA SEEMS A BIT TOO DRY AND AVN TOO WET.  WILL LEAVE POPS AS IS...BUT
COULD BE OVERDONE.  CANNOT SEE ANY TYPE OF SHORTWAVE TO KEEP STORMS
GOING OVERNIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...MODELS INDICATE GULF MOISTURE GETS SHOVED EAST INTO
KANSAS AS THE WEAKENING 5H LOW MOVES OVER AREA.  HOWEVER...DIV-Q
FIELDS SHOW DECENT UPWARD FORCING IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER OVER AREA
DURING AFTERNOON.  DESPITE DECREASING MOISTURE...THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE FOR STORMS.
HOWEVER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LOWER THAN THURSDAY.

IN LONGER TERM...H5 TROF PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO
SATURDAY.  IN ADDITION...AVN SHOWS SURFACE FRONT PUSHING INTO
NORTHEAST PLAINS.  WILL UP THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND COOL
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY.  MODELS THEN ADVERTISE 5H RIDGE REBUILDING
OVER WESTERN COLORADO...WHICH SHOULD SHUNT GULF MOISTURE AWAY FROM
CWA.  THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO JUMP BACK INTO THE 80S
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...90S PLAINS.  MRF KEEPS MOISTURE TRAPPED IN
THE RIDGE... CANNOT TAKE THUNDERSTORMS COMPLETELY OUT OF FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.  D-L

.DEN...NONE