Severe Thunderstorm Warning 204, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
312 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2001

PROBLEM THIS FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE CUTOFF LOW.

LATEST FORECAST SCENARIO HAS BECOME ROUTINE AS CUTOFF UPPER LOW
ENSURES THAT TSTMS OR SHWRS DVLP DURING THE AFTN HRS AND DIMINISH
BY SUNSET. WHAT HAS BEEN NON-ROUTINE IS WHERE STORMS DVLP AND
WHICH ONES BECOME SVR. CAPE RANGED FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG WITH
LI OF MINUS 8. HIGH CAPE VALUES WILL SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS WITHIN
TSTMS. STRONG VEERING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT...ALTHOUGH OF WEAK
SPEEDS...WILL SUPPORT SOME SUPERCELL STORMS. SINCE WIND FLOW ALOFT
IS RATHER WEAK...XPCT PULSE TYPE SVR TSTMS.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM XTRM SERN KS
THRU WCNTRL AR. RICH MSTR WAS FLOWING NWD FROM THIS BOUNDARY AND
INTO XTRM SERN KS AND SWRN MO THIS AFTN. DWPTS HAVE INCRSD TO 69 DEG
F AT SGF...AFTER BEING IN THE LOWER 60S EARLIER TODAY. SFC WIND
FLOW OVER SWRN MO WAS ESERLY NORTH OF BOUNDARY. APPEARS THAT A MAX
OF MSTR CONVRGC WAS IN PLACE OVER SERN KS AND SWRN MO. NUMEROUS CELLS
HAVE ALREADY DVLPD IN THIS AREA OF THE CWFA AND HAVE COME CLOSE TO
BECOMING SEVERE.

FURTHER AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY...AS MENTIONED EARLIER...MSTR CONVRGC
WAS LESS. ONLY A FEW CELLS DVLPD SO FAR. HOWEVER TCU COVERS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE CWFA...DUE TO THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE.

WILL HIT POPS HARD FOR THE FAR WSTRN ZONES THIS EVENING...WITH A 70
PCT CHANCE AND MENTION THE PSSBLTY OF LARGE HAIL...DMG WIND...HVY
RAIN. ELSEWHERE WILL MENTION ONLY HVY RAINFALL WITH POPS DIMINISHING
FROM A 50 PCT AT SGF TO 30 PCT FOR VIH.

OTHERWISE LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY AS UPPER LOW
WILL BE OVER MO. WILL HAVE TO BROADBRUSH POPS ACROSS THE ZONES...DUE
TO UNCERTAINTIES...REGARDING PLACEMENT OF FUTURE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

ETA MODEL APPEARS TO HAVE BETTER HANDLE ON UPPER LOW THAN AVN OR
NGM. AS ETA MODEL IS CONSISTENT WITH MOVING UPPER LOW SWWD BY 60HRS
WHILE MAINTAINING A CIRCULATION. AVN STRETCHES UPPER LOW NEWD AND
SWWD WHILE LOSING CIRCULATION. THIS IS INCONSISTENT WITH THE LAST
FEW DAYS OF MODEL RUNS. 28/00Z MRF WAS CONSISTENT WITH MOVING UPPER
LOW INTO ERN TX BY MON...MUCH BETTER THAN 28/00Z RUN OF THE CANADIAN
MODEL...AS THE 28/00Z CANADIAN MODEL MOVES UPPER LOW INTO MS. 28/12Z
RUN OF CANADIAN MODEL WAS CLOSER IN AGREEMENT WITH 28/00Z MRF.

THE EXTENDED HAS WNWLY UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY. HOWEVER SFC PATTERN AS FCST BY THE MRF WOULD PLACE BEST
CHANCES FOR NWRLY FLOW TYPE MCC EVENTS WELL TO OUR WEST. COLD FRONT
MOVES IN ON WED BUT FRONTAL CONVERGENCE LOOKS WEAK. SLGTLY COOLER
AIR WILL ENSUE ON THURS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP PCPN OUT OF EXTENDED.

.SGF...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

D.STEINMETZ

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-291100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
102 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2001

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND CONTINUED TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
EXIST TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. COLD AIR ALOFT WITHIN
THIS LOW WAS LOCATED ABOVE A WARM AND VERY HUMID AIRMASS AT THE
SURFACE. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO EXTREMES OF TEMPERATURE
RESULTS IN A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DIME TO NICKEL
SIZE HAIL...DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING...RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLOODING
OF STREETS...LOW LYING AREAS...LOW WATER CROSSINGS...AND SMALL CREEKS
AND STREAMS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND OCCUR OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHCENTRAL MISSOURI. MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM OSCEOLA...TO BUFFALO...TO AVA...AND
TO GAINESVILLE. ELSEWHERE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED.

CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD IN ANY OF
THE STORMS. BOATERS AND OTHERS ENGAGED IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD
KEEP ALERT TO THE LATEST INFORMATION ABOUT THE WEATHER. KEEP AN EYE
TO THE SKY AS THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP IN AS LITTLE AS 30 MINUTES
IN YOUR LOCAL VICINITY. IF YOU HEAR THUNDER OR SEE LIGHTNING...BE
SURE TO SEEK SAFE SHELTER...INDOORS AND ONSHORE. DO NOT SEEK SHELTER
UNDERNEATH A TREE.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY...OR AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.

SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST
STATEMENTS AND UPDATES FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.EXTENDED OUTLOOK...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. AGAIN SOME STORMS COULD
REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.

D.STEINMETZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
322 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....D

0320 PM    EAGLE ROCK                MO   .88 INCH HAIL
06/28/01   BARRY                          REPORTED BY PUBLIC.