Severe Thunderstorm Warning 202, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
225 AM CDT THU JUN 28 2001

WHAT CAN I SAY...SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE OVER
THE CWA THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.  5H TEMPS ARE AROUND -12C TO -14C
WITH 7H TEMPS AT 4C OR 5C.  STLT SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES OVER MOST OF WRN 1/2 OF CWA ATTM. TODAY SHOULD BE CARBON COPY
OF YESTERDAY...MORNING SUN WITH CB BUILDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND
THEN SCATTERED TSRA POPPING UP WITH A FEW GOING SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS MAIN THREAT.  TSRA/SHRA SHOULD END BY
LATE EVENING.

WILL GO PERSISTENCE WITH TEMPS AND SEE NO REASON TO CHANGES POPS
FROM CURRENT FORECAST. WILL BROAD BRUSH A 50 POP ACROSS CWA AS
SOME AREAS WILL BE DRY AND SOME WILL GET 1...2 OR MORE INCHES OF RAIN
WITH SLOW MOVING TSRA THAT DEVELOP AS CYCLONIC 7H WINDS ARE AROUND 10
KNOTS THRU FORECAST PERIOD. THUS WILL KEEP WORDING OF "RAIN HEAVY AT
TIMES".

EXTENDED FORECAST NOT MUCH CLEARER...WILL KEEP MENTION OF PCPN IN FOR
SATURDAY...DRY AFTER THAT...BUT WILL WAIT FOR NEW FMR.

FCSTID = 7
SGF   81  64  81  63 /  50  50  50  50
JLN   84  65  84  65 /  50  50  50  50
UNO   81  63  81  63 / T 50  50  50  50
VIH   80  63  80  63 /  50  50  50  50

.SGF...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-291100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
102 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2001

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND CONTINUED TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
EXIST TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. COLD AIR ALOFT WITHIN
THIS LOW WAS LOCATED ABOVE A WARM AND VERY HUMID AIRMASS AT THE
SURFACE. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO EXTREMES OF TEMPERATURE
RESULTS IN A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DIME TO NICKEL
SIZE HAIL...DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING...RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLOODING
OF STREETS...LOW LYING AREAS...LOW WATER CROSSINGS...AND SMALL CREEKS
AND STREAMS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND OCCUR OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHCENTRAL MISSOURI. MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM OSCEOLA...TO BUFFALO...TO AVA...AND
TO GAINESVILLE. ELSEWHERE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED.

CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD IN ANY OF
THE STORMS. BOATERS AND OTHERS ENGAGED IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD
KEEP ALERT TO THE LATEST INFORMATION ABOUT THE WEATHER. KEEP AN EYE
TO THE SKY AS THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP IN AS LITTLE AS 30 MINUTES
IN YOUR LOCAL VICINITY. IF YOU HEAR THUNDER OR SEE LIGHTNING...BE
SURE TO SEEK SAFE SHELTER...INDOORS AND ONSHORE. DO NOT SEEK SHELTER
UNDERNEATH A TREE.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY...OR AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.

SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST
STATEMENTS AND UPDATES FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.EXTENDED OUTLOOK...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. AGAIN SOME STORMS COULD
REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.

D.STEINMETZ