Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
244 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2001

CURRENTLY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUED ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. COLD POOL ALOFT AND HEATING OF THE DAY HAS RESULTED IN
LI'S OF -4 TO (-7)...AND CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1300-1700 J/KG. HAVE
HAD HAIL AND WIND EVENTS SNEAKING INTO THE SEVERE CATEGORY. THE
STORMS WERE LINING UP WITH A MESOSCALE WIND CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
FROM NRN MISSISSIPPI THROUGH SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THE H5 LOW
IS SITTING OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER IN OUR WESTERN CWA.

FORECAST CONCERNS...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DEALING WITH TEMPS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL COOL POOL.

CURRENT ACTIVITY WILL BECOME ISOLATED THIS EVENING SHORTLY AFTER
DIURNAL HEATING ENDS. BROKEN SKY WILL LIKELY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH THE NIGHT. DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 60S WILL RESULT IN 60 TO 65
TEMPERATURES BY MORNING...COOLER IN THE PLATEAU. WILL BREAK UP WEST
INTO 2 ZONES FOR TONIGHT...SINCE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS LOCATED
IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. WILL HAVE A HIGHER POP THERE.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH TAKING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WEST-
NORTHWEST OF THE MIDSTATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN PREVALENT ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW. MODEL RESOLUTION IS
NOT GOOD ENOUGH TO PINPOINT THE BEST DEFORMATION OR LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARIES WITH THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER...BEST LAPSE RATES TOMORROW DUE
TO COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALIGN IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...ALONG
WITH THE BEST LOW LEVEL JUICY AIR. THE CONVERGENCE WILL BE THE
QUESTION...AS THE SFC-H8 WIND FIELD WILL BECOME MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL
OUT OF THE SOUTH...AND THE ENTIRE WIND PROFILE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
IN SPEED. THE ETA DOES HINT AT AN H8 BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE MIDSTATE. OVERALL...THE BEST INGREDIENTS WILL SHIFT
WESTWARD. WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED ACTIVITY (30-40%) ACROSS
THE WEST...WILL PUT PLATEAU GROUP IN 20% OR 30% CHANCE.

ISOLATED ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TOMORROW EVENING...THEN AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THURSDAY AND THE WEEKEND...THE COOL POOL STAYS WEST OF THE
MIDSTATE AND GRADUALLY MODERATES CREATING NOT AS STEEP LAPSE RATES.
WIND FIELDS STAY UNIDIRECTIONAL...IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. AFTER
ANOTHER 30 PERCENT COVERAGE DAY IN THE WEST ON THURSDAY...ALL AREAS
WILL LIKELY SEE JUST ISOLATED ACTION INTO THE WEEKEND.

NUMBERS...

BNA 062/085 064/087 2423
CSV 056/080 059/082 2312

.BNA...NONE.h

DICKSON 15

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE,TN
120 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0118 PM    LAWRENCEBURG              TN   .75 INCH HAIL
06/26/01   LAWRENCE                       EMA REPORTED DIME SIZE
                                          HAIL AND WINDS ESTIMATED TO
                                          BE 60 MPH.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE,TN
128 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....
$
0127 PM    LAWRENCEBURG              TN   60 MPH TSTM WIND GUST
06/26/01   LAWRENCE                       EMA REPORTED TREES DOWN
                                          ALONG WITH POWER OUTAGES.

JAO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE,TN
137 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0137 PM    PROSPECT                  TN   60 MPH TSTM WIND GUST
06/26/01   LAWRENCE                       SPOTTER REPORTED LARGE
                                          TREE LIMBS DOWN AT
                                          PROSPECT.

JAO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE,TN
149 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0148 PM    MCMINNVILLE               TN   .75 INCH HAIL
06/26/01   WARREN                         EMA REPORTED DIME SIZE
                                          HAIL IN THE EASTERN PART OF
                                          MCMINNVILLE6. 1/3 OF
                                          MCMINNVILLE WAS WITHOUT
                                          POWER.

JAO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE,TN
224 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0205 PM    GAINESBORO                TN   .75 INCH HAIL
06/26/01   JACKSON                        HWY DEPT. REPORTED DIME
                                          SIZE HAIL IN THE NORTHERN
                                          PART OF THE QCOUNTY.

JAO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE,TN
238 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0215 PM    LAWRENCEBURG              TN   FLOOD
06/26/01   LAWRENCE                       EMA REPORTED 12-18 INCHES
                                          OF WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS
                                          NEAR THE TOWN SQMUARE.