Flash Flood Warning 87, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
334 AM CST TUE NOV 27 2001

CORRECTED TEXT.

VERY ACTIVE JET AFFECTING SE TX OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A
STRONG TROUGH AT 500 MB MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.  COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO SE TX EARLY THIS MORNING LOOKS TO HANG UP ALONG THE COAST OR
INLAND TODAY...THEN MOVE SLOWLY OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE
STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA.  GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
COUPLE WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE...PLUS ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL MEAN
HIGH RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND CHANCE FOR SEVERE THE FIRST THREE PERIODS.
FORECAST ISSUES RUN THE GAMUT FROM SEVERE AND FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS
TODAY...TONIGHT...INTO WEDNESDAY TO WINTRY PRECIP POSSIBILITIES LATE
WEDNESDAY IN THE WEST AND NORTH.  LIKED THE ETA OVER THE AVN AS THE
ETA DID BETTER WITH THE SURFACE FEATURES AND THE AVN LOOKS TO PULL THE
500 MB LOW AND TROUGH OUT TOO QUICKLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR BASICALLY THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  THE ETA MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO
SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH HAIL AND WIND THE
MAIN SEVERE THREATS...BUT SOME SHEAR IS ALSO PRESENT.

FOR WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY A TRANSITION TO A COLDER AIRMASS
WILL OCCUR AS THE PRECIP ENDS.  THIS WILL MEAN THAT AREAS OVER THE
WEST AND NORTH MAY SEE A TRANSITION TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION AS WELL.
GIVEN THE MORE PRESSING ISSUES IN THE FIRST THREE PERIODS AND THE FACT
THAT ETA MAY BE TOO STRONG IN ITS SUGGESTION OF THE PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING IN THE COLD AIRMASS...WILL PUNT TO THE NEXT SHIFT FOR ANY
MAJOR ITEMS. WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW
BEFORE ENDING.

TEMPERATURES MAY VARY WIDELY ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND THOSE
FARTHER INLAND GIVEN THE MOVEMENT AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT.  WENT
TOWARD THE COLDER MAV FOR INLAND STATIONS TEMPERED BY THE ETA SOUNDING
DATA AND WENT CLOSER TO THE FWC FOR THE COAST.

.HGX...SCEC GULF WATERS OUT 20-60 NM.
       TORNADO WATCH THROUGH 11Z FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA.
       FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY AND TONIGHT EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF CWA.
PL-40
34

PRELIMS...
CLL TR 060/040 043/031 049 899
IAH TR 073/047 049/036 050 889
GLS TR 074/063 067/044 053 689

TXZ177>179-199-200-212>214-227-237-238-271100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1218 AM CST TUE NOV 27 2001

...TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
UNTIL 5 AM TUESDAY MORNING...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH 5 AM TUESDAY MORNING. THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES ARE INCLUDED IN THE WATCH:

BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...FORT BEND GALVESTON...HARRIS...LIBERTY...
MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...WALKER AND WALLER.

THE WATCH DOES INCLUDE THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA.

CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES TO DEVELOP IN AND NEAR THE
WATCH AREA. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TONIGHT WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS. BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES
OR WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER WEATHER NEWS SOURCES FOR
FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.