Flash Flood Warning 86, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1010 PM CST MON NOV 26 2001

SEVERAL ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH TONIGHT INCLUDING RAIN CHANCES...
SEVERE POTENTIAL AND WIND SHIFT. OVERALL COVERAGE OF PRECIP WILL
REMAIN HIGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT WITH SEVERE
THREAT TONIGHT. WET BULB ZERO IS STILL AOA 12K FT SO HAIL THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL. CAPES ARE NOT REAL HIGH AND HELICITY VALUES
ARE ALSO ON THE LIGHT SIDE. A LAYER OF DRY AIR ABOVE 85H DOES FAVOR
SOME DOWNBURST POTENTIAL. SVR WATCH RUNS UNTIL 1 AM...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WHAT IS OF SOME CONCERN IS THE TRAINING OF
ECHOES WHICH HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR. AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
BY MORNING (MAYBE HIGHER) IF THIS SITUATION PERSISTS. WILL UPDATE
ZONES TO RAISE RAIN CHANCES AND ADD LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY LOOK RATHER DISTURBING. PWS REMAIN AOA 1.2
INCHES WITH AN INVERTED TROF DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST. COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE AREA WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST AS IT BECOMES
PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW. OVER-RUNNING (I KNOW?) PRECIP TO DEVELOP
INLAND AS SOUTHERLY 85H WINDS OF 40 KNOTS OVERRIDE 15 KT NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS. SE TX ALSO LIES IN A RRQ OF A DEPARTING 120 KT JET
MAX THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE PRECIP
POTENTIAL. SINCE WET BULB ZERO TEMPS ARE COOLER AND LAPSE RATES
REMAIN CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE...FEEL POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE FOR
HAIL THREAT.

IF THIS ISNT ENOUGH...00Z ETA MODEL SHOWS ENOUGH LIFT...SATURATION
AND COLD TEMPERATURES THAT A MIX OF SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES OF SE TX. WAY TOO EARLY TO TELL
BUT SOUNDING DATA SUPPORTS A MIX NORTH OF HOUSTON AND POSSIBLY SNOW
NEAR CLL BEFORE PRECIP ENDS THURSDAY MORNING. ANY PRECIP WHICH FALLS
AT THIS TIME WILL BE LIGHT. WHAT A WEEK

.HGX...SCEC GULF WATERS OUT 20-60 NM.
       SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THROUGH 07Z FOR NORTH HALF OF CWA.
43/47

PRELIMS...
CLL TR 053/054 040/045 031 559
IAH TR 068/068 047/048 034 557
GLS TR 069/072 054/056 041 557

TXZ163-164-176>179-196-198>200-213-214-270700-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
800 PM CST MON NOV 26 2001

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS UNTIL 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING. THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES ARE INCLUDED IN THE WATCH:

BRAZOS...CHAMBERS...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...LIBERTY...MADISON
MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY AND WALKER. THE WATCH DOES
INCLUDE THE BRYAN-COLLEGE STATION AND THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREAS.

CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN
AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TONIGHT
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. BE PREPARED TO
TAKE ACTION IF SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER WEATHER NEWS SOURCES FOR
FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

TXZ177>179-199-200-212>214-227-237-238-271100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1218 AM CST TUE NOV 27 2001

...TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
UNTIL 5 AM TUESDAY MORNING...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH 5 AM TUESDAY MORNING. THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES ARE INCLUDED IN THE WATCH:

BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...FORT BEND GALVESTON...HARRIS...LIBERTY...
MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...WALKER AND WALLER.

THE WATCH DOES INCLUDE THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA.

CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES TO DEVELOP IN AND NEAR THE
WATCH AREA. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TONIGHT WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS. BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES
OR WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER WEATHER NEWS SOURCES FOR
FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.