Severe Thunderstorm Warning 123, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
240 PM CDT MON SEP 3 2001

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FIRING ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE VORT MAX OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA CONTINUES TO SINK
SOUTHWARD.  SPC HAS INDICATED THAT THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU THIS
EVENING.  COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AFTERNOON SFC TEMPS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S AND THE APPROACHING VORT MAX WILL CONSPIRE TO GENERATE
TSTMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

HEAVY RAIN EVENT STILL POSSIBLE BEGINNING TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY AS
THE VORT MAX MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWFA.  THIS FEATURE WILL
INTERACT WITH THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.  THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE EVENT
IS STILL IN DOUBT.  HOPEFULLY LATER MODEL RUNS WILL HELP.  ACCORDING
TO HPC THE 12Z ETA IS SUFFERING FROM GRID SCALE FEEDBACK RESULTING
IN ERRONEOUS QPF AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT.  WILL ISSUE A SPS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE SVR WX THREAT THIS EVENING AND HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBILITIES ON TUESDAY.

PCPN WILL REMAIN IN THE FCST THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER TROF IS FCST TO
REMAIN PARKED OVER TEXAS.  DISTURBANCES ROTATING THRU THE TROF WILL
BE THE MAIN TRIGGER FOR ADDITIONAL PCPN THIS WEEK.

.PRELIMS...
AUS 072 087 070 085 070 46463
DRT 075 090 072 089 070 46453
SAT 075 088 072 085 072 36464

.EWX...NONE.

13/05/PM

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-041200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
315 PM CDT MON SEP 3 2001

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TONIGHT...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS INDICATED THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS HILL
COUNTRY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY...WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM BEFORE
SUNSET AND POSSIBLY AFFECT THE HILL COUNTRY TONIGHT.  THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE FROM LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND FREQUENT DEADLY
LIGHTNING.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING MAY ACCOMPANY
THE THUNDERSTORMS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY LATER TONIGHT
BUT REDEVELOP ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY...EDWARDS PLATEAU...
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS.  THE MAIN
THREAT FROM THIS ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY WILL BE FROM LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS.

INTERESTS THROUGHOUT THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND RIVER FORECASTS AND
ADVISORIES.  SINCE THE GROUND IS EXTREMELY SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS
WEEKS HEAVY RAINFALL...ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN AND RUNOFF INTO ALREADY
SWOLLEN OR FLOODED CREEKS AND RIVERS MAY REQUIRE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
ISSUANCE TUESDAY.

FOR INFORMATION ON WEATHER THREATS IN SURROUNDING AREAS...PLEASE
REFER TO OUTLOOKS FROM OFFICES IN SAN ANGELO...FORT WORTH...CORPUS
CHRISTI...HOUSTON/GALVESTON AND MIDLAND/ODESSA.