Severe Thunderstorm Warning 96, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1048 AM CDT SUN APR 23 2000

15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED CENTER OF SURFACE LOW A LITTLE WEST OR
NORTHWEST OF OKC.  MESONET/SURFACE OBS SHOWING WARM FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS NORTHEAST OK INTO SOUTHWEST MO...WITH DRYLINE TRAILING SOUTH
FROM THE LOW TO A LITTLE WEST OF ADM.  WARM SECTOR TEMPS WELL INTO
THE 60S NOW WITH A FEW LOW 70S ALONG THE RED RIVER...DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S AT 15Z.  SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST TO NEAR THE RED RIVER IN SOUTHEAST OK BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  MEANWHILE...UPPER LOW TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE STATE WITH ASSOCIATED COLDER TEMPS ALOFT LEADING TO AN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AMS.  CURRENT FORECAST STILL GENERALLY ON TRACK
WITH EXPECTED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER THE CWA.  WILL UPDATE ZONES 16Z-17Z
TO MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT
OTHERWISE PREVIOUS PACKAGE IN GOOD SHAPE.

.TUL...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-241100-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT SUN APR 23 2000

...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

.SYNOPSIS...
AT 100 PM...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED NEAR OKLAHOMA CITY WITH
A DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTH INTO NORTH TEXAS JUST WEST OF THE
DALLAS/FT WORTH AREA.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.  THESE SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST -
SOUTHEAST INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION BY TONIGHT.

.PRIMARY HAZARD...
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.  THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE BETWEEN 1 AND 10 PM.

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST MESONET OBSERVATIONS INDICATE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
HAVE MOVED INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH FORECAST CAPE
VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES ALREADY TO -7
ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO PRODUCE A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO MORE FAVORABLE
WIND PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS.  ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.  THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 10 PM AS
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOW MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
SPOTTERS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...ALONG WITH
OTHER DETAILED FORECASTS...CAN BE OBTAINED VIA THE INTERNET AT
WWW.NWSTULSA.NOAA.GOV