Severe Thunderstorm Warning 242, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
345 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2000

A LOOK AT THE 18Z ETA MODEL HAS FURTHER COMPLICATED A FORECAST THAT WAS
ALREADY COMPLICATED ENOUGH.

INITIAL STORMS HAVE FIRED IN CENTRAL KANSAS AND IN THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND ARE ABOUT READY TO EXPLODE IN THE 6000 JOULE/KILOGRAM AND
-16 LIFTED INDEX AIRMASS IN NORTHWEST TEXAS. SO IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER
LONG NIGHT. THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF THESE STORMS IS WHERE THE PROBLEM
LIES TONIGHT.

OUR THOUGHTS ARE THAT THE WORST OF THE WEATHER WILL OCCUR WITH THE
NORTHWEST TEXAS STORMS AS THEY CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE AND SPREAD
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EVENTUALLY INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS
EVENING. THE EXTREME INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A FEW TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS THIS EVENING BEFORE TRANSITIONING INTO A HAIL/WIND EVENT
TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. THE 18Z ETA ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THE DEVELOPING COMPLEX
TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND POSSIBLY
MERGE WITH THE MORE SOUTHERN COMPLEX OVERNIGHT. STORMS IN THIS AREA MAY
ALSO BE SUPERCELLS BUT THE TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY BE LOWER THAN
WITH THE STORMS FURTHER SOUTH. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY ALSO FORM ALONG
THE COLD FRONT IN KANSAS LATER TONIGHT AND ENTER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
TOWARDS SUNRISE.

WITH ALL THE UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF STORMS
TONIGHT...WILL SPREAD 50-60% POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AND DO THE SAME AGAIN SATURDAY AS THE MORNING COMPLEX MAY
WEAKEN WITH NEW STORMS FORMING IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT OR
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING CONVECTION.

COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT SO
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ENDING BY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF COLD ADVECTION IS NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT SO WITH SUNSHINE AND
DRIER AIR...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE WARMER SUNDAY THAN SATURDAY.

THE HEAT IS REALLY ON IN THE EXTENDED AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH TO NEAR THE
KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER TUESDAY BEFORE RETREATING NORTH WEDNESDAY.
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN CAPPED SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY SO WILL KEEP THINGS
DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

WENT COOLER THAN GUIDANCE ON MINIMUMS TONIGHT DUE TO THE LIKELY EFFECTS
OF THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES A GOOD FIRST GUESS
SATURDAY BUT WENT A BIT COOLER SATURDAY NIGHT. NGM MOS TURNS ON THE
HEAT A BIT TOO SOON SUNDAY SO WILL DELAY THE REALLY TOASTY READINGS
UNTIL MEMORIAL DAY.

TUNE IN TOMORROW TO SEE HOW THINGS REALLY PAN OUT...

FCSTID = 5
TUL   69  84  60  90 /  50  50  20   0
FSM   69  87  64  92 /  60  60  40   5
MLC   69  86  62  91 /  60  50  30   5
BVO   68  83  57  90 /  60  50  10   0
FYV   69  84  60  87 /  50  60  30   0
BYV   69  84  60  87 /  50  60  30   0
MIO   69  83  59  88 /  50  50  20   0
MKO   70  85  61  90 /  50  50  20   0
F10   70  85  61  90 /  50  50  20   0
HHW   70  87  64  92 /  50  50  40  10

.TUL...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

PLATE

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-271200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
120 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2000

...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TONIGHT...

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS OUT AHEAD OF IT ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.  THIS LOW WILL MOVE
INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY LATE TONIGHT.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS TODAY.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WERE ALSO
IN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AT
MIDDAY.

.PRIMARY HAZARD...
ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ANYWHERE ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING...THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION
FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES...LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.  HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED
TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS TODAY AS WARM MOIST
AIR AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO BE PULLED NORTHWARD.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION MAY CAUSE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO PROMOTE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING.

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.  FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES ALSO
SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
121 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2000

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0341 AM    3 NE DEWEY                OK    WIND DAMAGE
05/26/00   WASHINGTON                      TREE BLOWN DOWN

1030 AM    5 SW SALLISAW             OK    WIND DAMAGE
05/26/00   SEQUOYAH                        TREES DAMAGED

1045 AM    PRAIURIE GROVE             AR    WIND DAMAGE
05/26/00   WASHINGTON                      TREES DAMAGED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
130 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2000

...CORRECTED MUSKOGEE AND CHEROKEE COUNTY REPORTS...

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0400 AM    3 W PAWNEE                OK    FLOOD
05/26/00   PAWNEE                          WATER BRIEFLY OVER ROAD
                                           WEST OF PAWNEE

0905 AM    2 WSW EUFAULA             OK    TORNADO
05/26/00   MCINTOSH                        APPARENT TORNADO
                                           DAMAGED HOUSE
                                           ...NUMEROUS TREES DOWN.
                                           TREE DAMAGE ALSO AT
                                           MILLCREEK PARK AND TOP
                                           BLOWN OFF A BARN

0920 AM    MUSKOGEE                  OK    WIND DAMAGE
05/26/00   MUSKOGEE                        STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS
                                           ROOF DAMAGE AND SHORT
                                           PATH OF DAMAGE IN
                                           CEMETARY.

1000 AM    1 SSW TAHLEQUAH           OK    WIND DAMAGE
05/26/00   CHEROKEE                        STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS
                                           JCT 62/82/51...STORAGE
                                           BLDG DESTROYED...
           j                                STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO A
                                           BLDG...WINDOWS BLOWN
                                           OUT OF SEVERAL CARS