Severe Thunderstorm Warning 255, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...RETRAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
420 AM CDT MON MAY 17 1999

PROBLEM(S) OF THE DAY:
WILL THE CONVECTION BE SCATTERED OR NUMEROUS?
POPS
WHAT TYPE(S) OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR?

LOTS OF WIND REPORTS TONIGHT WITH BOW ECHO. SFC ANALYSIS AT 3AM
SHOWED FRONT WAS STILL NORTH OF THE AREA...WILL NEED PRETTY HIGH POPS
TODAY FOR ONGOING PRECIP OVER NC/NE OK AND REDEVELOPMENT TODAY.
MODELS STILL SHOW FROPA AROUND 15-18Z IN NE OK AND THIS AFTERNOON ALL
BUT FAR SE ZONES. HAVE A FEELING THAT FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN ACROSS SRN
ZONES AS S/W ZIPS OFF TO THE E LEAVING COMMA TAIL PRECIP TO FIRE
ALONG FRONT. CONDITIONS MAY NOT BE OPTIMAL FOR SUPERCELLS TODAY...BUT
COULD EASILY CHANGE BASED ON NEAR-TERM CONVECTION AND HOW MUCH MUCH
ATMOSPHERE IN LOW LEVELS CAN RECOVER. WILL MENTION SVR POSSIBLE
ACROSS SE ZONES TODAY AND FAR SE THIS EVENING. RAINFALL REPORTS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY LOW CONSIDERING HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...MAINLY TO DUE
RAPID PROGREESION OF BOW ECHO. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FFA DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL OCCUR TODAY OR
TONIGHT.

MODELS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF FRONT SO HAVE NOT
FOLLOWED ANY PATICULAR MODEL TO THE LETTER. GENERALLY WENT A LITTLE
COOLER THAN FWC WITH COOLER H8 TEMPS AND NORTH WINDS. SHOULD SEE SOME
OVERRUNNING CLOUDS UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN CLEARING WILL OCCUR FROM
THE NORTH.

EXTD FCST IN SOME DOUBT AS MRF AND ECMWF SHOWING GOOD SWLY FLOW OVER
SRN PLAINS THURS. THINK STORMS WILL STAY WEST ON DRYLINE. OTHER
MODELS STARTING TO LOOK LIKE LAST 2 RUNS OF MRF SHOWING CUTOFF LOW
OVER SW US AND RETROGRADING UPR LOW INTO FLORIDA FOR FRI/SAT. VERY
STRANGE PATTERN FOR MAY IF THIS VERIFIES...BUT SEEMS REASONABLE BASED
ON HEMISPHERIC PATTERN AND INTER-/INTRA-MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY. WITH CUTOFF TO THE WEST WILL KEEP EXT FCST DRY.

FCSTID = 26
NELSON

TUL   76  53  78  53 /  90  10   0   0
FSM   80  57  78  51 /  60  20   0   0
MLC   79  55  80  52 /  50  20   0   0
BVO   75  50  76  50 /  90   5   0   0
FYV   77  52  73  45 /  70  10   0   0
IDB   82  58  82  54 /  40  60   0   0
BYV   77  52  73  45 /  70  10   0   0
MIO   76  51  75  48 /  70  10   0   0
MKO   78  55  78  52 /  70  10   0   0
F10   76  53  78  53 /  90  10   0   0
HHW   82  58  82  54 /  40  60   0   0

.TUL...
AR...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 600 AM CDT MONDAY FOR ZONES
ARZ001...ARZ010...ARZ019...ARZ029.
OK...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 600 AM CDT MONDAY FOR ZONES
OKZ049...OKZ053...OKZ055>058...OKZ060>076.

--------------------
EXPERIMENTAL OUTPUT:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS: CHANCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
NGM CONFIDENCE:  7 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
ETA CONFIDENCE:  8 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
AVN CONFIDENCE:  7 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
FCST CONFIDENCE: 8 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-181100-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 AM CDT MON MAY 17 1999

...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY IN SOUTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE
IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING...

.SYNOPSIS...
EARLY THIS MORNING...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHERN
MISSOURI TO ANOTHER LOW IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND HAD ENTERED OSAGE AND
PAWNEE COUNTIES. AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS INTO THE PLAINS
TODAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD AND BY THIS EVENING IS
EXPECTED TO BE EXITING SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

.DISCUSSION...
THE AIRMASS OVER THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO RECOVER FROM THE OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION AND AGAIN BECOME UNSTABLE AHEAD AND NEAR THE FRONT.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WERE ENTERING
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE MAIN THREAT  FROM
THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS...BUT AN
ISOLATED SHORT LIVED SEVERE STORM COULD DEVELOP.

WITH SOME SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO NEAR 80
DEGREES IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ON OR JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THIS AREA.
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THESE STORMS SHOULD EXIT SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY EVENING.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY AND SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY AND SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
POSSIBLE ACTIVATION...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS FROM LATE MORNING UNTIL EARLY EVENING.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-181100-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 AM CDT MON MAY 17 1999

...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY IN SOUTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE
IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING...

.SYNOPSIS...
EARLY THIS MORNING...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHERN
MISSOURI TO ANOTHER LOW IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND HAD ENTERED OSAGE AND
PAWNEE COUNTIES. AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS INTO THE PLAINS
TODAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD AND BY THIS EVENING IS
EXPECTED TO BE EXITING SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

.DISCUSSION...
THE AIRMASS OVER THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO RECOVER FROM THE OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION AND AGAIN BECOME UNSTABLE AHEAD AND NEAR THE FRONT.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WERE ENTERING
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE MAIN THREAT  FROM
THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS...BUT AN
ISOLATED SHORT LIVED SEVERE STORM COULD DEVELOP.

WITH SOME SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO NEAR 80
DEGREES IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ON OR JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THIS AREA.
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THESE STORMS SHOULD EXIT SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY EVENING.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY AND SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY AND SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
POSSIBLE ACTIVATION...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS FROM LATE MORNING UNTIL EARLY EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
823 AM CDT MON MAY 17 1999

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0821 AM    KELLYVILLE                OK    .88 INCH HAIL
05/17/99   CREEK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
823 AM CDT MON MAY 17 1999

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0821 AM    KELLYVILLE                OK    .88 INCH HAIL
05/17/99   CREEK