Severe Thunderstorm Warning 213, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
318 AM CDT THU JUN 24 1999

CONVECTION CONTINUING THIS MORNING AHEAD OF S/W WHICH WAS MOVING
EAST ACROSS NE CO WHILE ST/FOG HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF CWA. THTE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS CWA WITH BEST
DPVA OVER THE NORTH. MODIFIED 00Z SOUNDING AND MODEL SOUNDING PROGS
SHOWING GOOD INSTABILITY PRESENT AND VEERING WINDS EVIDENT FROM
GRANADA AND VICI PROFILERS. THEREFORE DO NOT EXPECT STORMS TO
DISSIPATE AFTER ENTERING W KS. GIVEN THE CURRENT SPEED OF THE STORMS
AND THE SHORT DURATION OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. WILL HOWEVER MENTION HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ZONES. CURRENT SPEED OF STORMS PLACE THE END OF PCPN JUST EAST
OF GCK BY 12Z SO DESPITE CAT POPS IN ZONES WILL GO WITH LOWER POPS IN
CCF FOR GCK. WILL ALSO MENTION TS ENDING THIS MORNING IN THIS AREA.

SOUTHEAST FLOW SHOULD THROUGH TONIGHT AS LEE TROF REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER EASTERN CO. THIS SHOULD AGAIN BRING BACK CLOUD COVER
TO MUCH OF THE AREA. HARD TO FIND GOOD FORCING FOR CONVECTION
THIS EVENING...HOWEVER SHOULD SEE SOME TS DEVELOP ALONG
THE LEE TROF LATE IN THE DAY. ANOTHER VORT LOBE WILL MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT WITH BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AGAIN LOCATED
OVER THE NORTH. AS A RESULT WILL KEEP CHC POPS GOING TONIGHT WITH
HIGHER POPS OVER NORTH. ALSO APPEARS THIS NEXT WAVE MAY BE SLIGHTLY
MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WILL SO REMOVE MORNING POPS
ACROSS THE EAST.

GUIDANCE MAY BE TO WARM ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST WHERE CLOUD COVER
WILL HOLD ON THE LONGEST. CURRENT TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE SO NO REAL
CHANGES PLANNED.

EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK SO NO CHANGES PLANNED.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 089/067 089/068 090 831
GCK 089/067 089/067 092 331
EHA 090/063 090/065 092 531
LBL 090/066 090/064 090 731
HYS 087/064 089/067 090 952
P28 089/068 089/068 092 741

.DDC...

RB