Severe Thunderstorm Warning 211, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
318 AM CDT THU JUN 24 1999

CONVECTION CONTINUING THIS MORNING AHEAD OF S/W WHICH WAS MOVING
EAST ACROSS NE CO WHILE ST/FOG HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF CWA. THTE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS CWA WITH BEST
DPVA OVER THE NORTH. MODIFIED 00Z SOUNDING AND MODEL SOUNDING PROGS
SHOWING GOOD INSTABILITY PRESENT AND VEERING WINDS EVIDENT FROM
GRANADA AND VICI PROFILERS. THEREFORE DO NOT EXPECT STORMS TO
DISSIPATE AFTER ENTERING W KS. GIVEN THE CURRENT SPEED OF THE STORMS
AND THE SHORT DURATION OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. WILL HOWEVER MENTION HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ZONES. CURRENT SPEED OF STORMS PLACE THE END OF PCPN JUST EAST
OF GCK BY 12Z SO DESPITE CAT POPS IN ZONES WILL GO WITH LOWER POPS IN
CCF FOR GCK. WILL ALSO MENTION TS ENDING THIS MORNING IN THIS AREA.

SOUTHEAST FLOW SHOULD THROUGH TONIGHT AS LEE TROF REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER EASTERN CO. THIS SHOULD AGAIN BRING BACK CLOUD COVER
TO MUCH OF THE AREA. HARD TO FIND GOOD FORCING FOR CONVECTION
THIS EVENING...HOWEVER SHOULD SEE SOME TS DEVELOP ALONG
THE LEE TROF LATE IN THE DAY. ANOTHER VORT LOBE WILL MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT WITH BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AGAIN LOCATED
OVER THE NORTH. AS A RESULT WILL KEEP CHC POPS GOING TONIGHT WITH
HIGHER POPS OVER NORTH. ALSO APPEARS THIS NEXT WAVE MAY BE SLIGHTLY
MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WILL SO REMOVE MORNING POPS
ACROSS THE EAST.

GUIDANCE MAY BE TO WARM ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST WHERE CLOUD COVER
WILL HOLD ON THE LONGEST. CURRENT TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE SO NO REAL
CHANGES PLANNED.

EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK SO NO CHANGES PLANNED.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 089/067 089/068 090 831
GCK 089/067 089/067 092 331
EHA 090/063 090/065 092 531
LBL 090/066 090/064 090 731
HYS 087/064 089/067 090 952
P28 089/068 089/068 092 741

.DDC...

RB

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-250500-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
708 AM CDT THU JUN 24 1999

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN...HOWEVER SOME
STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH. THESE
STORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE MORNING AND ALLOW SKIES
TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON
AS A SOUTHEAST FLOW OF WARM AND MORE HUMID AIR CONTINUES. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BECOME POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY TONIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. AGAIN THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY
RAINS. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM SYRACUSE TO LARNED.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...YOU MAY VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT:
HTTP://WWW.DODGECITY.NET/NWS/

RB