Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
332 PM CDT THU JUN 24 1999

DIFFICULT FCST TDY AS MID AND UPR LVL FLOW ALMOST NIL AND CNVCTV
OUTFLOWS EVERYWHERE.  PBLMS ARE MANIFOLD IN REFINING A MESOSCALE
FCST POORLY INITIALIZED BY MODELS AND DRIVEN BY NON-HYDROSTATIC
PROCESSES.

CNVCTV INDUCED VORT LINGERS OVR W KS FROM MRNG MCS AND IS REFIRING
STORMS ATTM IN MY NRN ZNS.  CAN ONLY GUESS AT WHERE OUTFLOW BNDRYS
WL BE OR HOW LONG LASTING THE SELF FEEDING CNVCTN WL LAST OR WERE IT
WL MOVE.  WL HV TO LEAVE POPS IN ALL ZNS TNGT AND WL ADJUST POPS
MOMENTS BEFORE SENDING ZNS FOR ONGOING CNVCTN. WL ALSO NEED FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR ZNS WITH ONGOING CNVCTN DUE TO SATURATED GROUND AND
WL HV TO FINALIZE THAT LIST JUST BEFORE ZNS ARE SENT AS WELL.

IN LTR PDS NO SIGN OF ANY POLAR SYSTEM CAPABLE OF CLEANING OUT THE
TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE OVR THE RGN AS MDLS CONT TO LEAVE A SLOWLY
STRENGTHENING H5 RDG FM NM NE THRU KS WITH A DAILY HEAT LOW DVLPG
ANYWHERE IN THE LEE SLOPES FROM CO SO INTO THE TX PNHNDL.  THIS SHD
KEEP THE JUICE FOCUSED IN THE HI PLNS DEPENDENT UPON THE DRY LINE
EXISTENCE AND POSITION. CNVCTN TIMING AND LOCATION WL DEPEND AGN ON
LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF CNVCTV INDUCED VORT THUS WL LEAVE AT LEAST
SOME POPS ALL PDS ALLOWING FOR ADJUSTMENT FOR MESOSCALE FORCING BY
SHORT TERM FCSTS.

THE ONLY HOPE FOR RELIEF WOULD BE THE PAC SYSTEM NOW MOVG ON SHORE.
12Z H5 ANAL SHWG 110 METER HGT FALLS AND H20 VPR LOOP SUGGESTS VORT
IN BOTTOM OF UPR TROF OVR PAC MAY GO A BIT FARTHER S THAN NEW AVN
SUGGESTS BUT MUCH IS UNKOWN ABOUT THIS FEATURE UNTIL IT GETS ON
SHORE AND INTO THE DATA FIELDS WHERE MODELS WL BE ABLE TO BETTER
INITIALIZE IT.  FOR NOW WL STICK WITH PERSISTENT AND SLOWLY BUILDING
UPR RDG OVR FA AND THUS AT LEAST SOME CHC FOR SPOTTY CNVCTN NEXT 2
DAYS. MAIN MCS THREAT SHD END UP WAY N TMRW WHERE DVLPG LLJ
INTERSECTS WARM FNT IN DIFLUENT THKNS PTTN THO CANNOT RULE OUT A
ROGUE MCS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE DUE TO CNVCTVLY INDUCED VORT.

MOS TEMPS A TOUCH TOO WRM EACH DAY DUE TO COPIOUS MSTR AND WL
ADJUST.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

NOT A LOT OF TIME FOR DETAILED ANALYSIS OF EXTENDED PACKAGE WITH
RECENT SHORT TERM ADJUSTMENTS AND SVR WX IN THE AREA TO DEAL WITH.
BUT OVERALL...NOT A LOT HAS CHANGED FROM YESTERDAY CONCERNING THE
EXTENDED PACKAGE. WITH ALL THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE
REGION...AND NO SIGNIFICANT SUNNY SPELL TO HELP DRY THINGS UP OR
SHUNT THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA...THE CHANCES OF AT LEAST LATE
DAY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FORMATION EACH DAY LASTING INTO THE
NIGHTTIME DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD STILL LOOK PROMISING. THE BIGGEST
CHANCES WILL BE THIS WEEKEND AND THEN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS A VERY SIGNIFICANT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE
AREA VIA MRF GUIDANCE. THE DAY WITH THE LEAST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE
TUESDAY AS CURRENT MRF PROGS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. BUT
EVEN SO...WHO KNOWS HOW MANY BOUNDARIES AND LEFT OVER CONVECTION MAY
BE STILL BOUNCING AROUND THE AREA. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...FEEL
UNCOMFORTABLE WITHOUT HAVING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE.

FOR TEMPS...WILL CONTINUE WITH THINKING OF NEAR FMR GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS AND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE HIGHS GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 065/091 065/091 065 623
GCK 063/092 063/092 063 +23
EHA 062/093 062/093 062 424
LBL 063/092 063/092 063 623
HYS 066/089 066/089 066 523
P28 070/089 070/089 070 432

.DDC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT KSZ043>045-062>063-075>077.

JOHNSON/SLEIGHTER