Severe Thunderstorm Warning 209, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
250 PM CDT WED JUN 23 1999

QSTN TDY WILL AGAIN BE CNVCTN AND ITS EFFECTS ON BNDRY LYR.

MODELS CONT TO STRUGGLE WITH BNDRY LYR IN WAKE OF LAST NGTS MCS.
CURRENT HAND ANALS SHWG WARM AIR LOW OVR PNHNDLS WITH DVLPG SE BNDRY
LYR FLOW ACRS MY ZNS AND QUASI STNRY POLAR FNT ACRS NE CO AND NW
KS.  DECENT FOCUS AREA DVLPG ON SHORT FUSE COMPOSITE OVR SWKS AND
XPCT THIS TO BE DRAWN SLOWLY NWRD THIS AFTN AS WEAK UPSTRM S/WV NOW
IN WRN WY MOVES EWRD ALG FNT.  XPCT LATE AFTN STORMS DVLPG IN E
CNTRL CO THEN MOVING SE ALG OLD OFB ACRS MY ZONES.  WND PROFILES NOT
THE GREATEST BUT THROWING IN A SE STORM MVMT PRODUCES A FAIRLY RSNBL
HODOGRAPH FOR ROTATING STORMS THUS AM IN AGREEMENT WITH SPC SLGT
RISK WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WNDS THE BIGGEST THREAT AS INITIAL
CNVCTN AGN TURNS MULTICELLULAR WITH TIME.  MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDING
PRODUCES NEARLY 4000 J/KG SBCAPE SO CAPE ALONE MAY BE ENUF TO
OVERCOME SHODDY WND PROFILE. PW/S OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES WL REQUIRE A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL BUT MY SW ZNS IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS
RAINFALL.  LOOKS LIKE LAST NIGHT ALL OVER AGN.

IN LTR PDS MUCH WL DEPEND UPON THE EFFECTS OF TNGTS CNVCTN.  WL PLAY
PERSISTENCE AS THE BEST FORECAST TOOL AS POLAR FNT SHD NOT MOVE MUCH
AND ANOTHER UPSTRM S/WV WL BE AVBL FOR THUR NGT.  WL NEED TO KEEP SML
POPS FOR THUR MRNG IN MY SE ZNS FOR MRNG MCS LEFT OVERS AS WELL AS
SML CHC POPS IN MY FAR WRN ZNS FOR LATE AFTN AS CNVCTN SHD REDEVELOP.
DID NOT GET ST/FG IN WAKE OF LAST NGTS ACTIVITY LARGELY BECAUSE BUBBLE
HIGH BEHIND THE MCS WAS STRONG ENUF TO PRODUCE TOO MUCH SUBSIDENCE
AND THUS DRYING.  ITS A GUESSING GAME BUT WL PLAY THIS TO HAPPEN
AGAIN TNGT INTO THUR SO SHD BE PLENTY OF INSOLATION AGAIN THUR AND
WL GO PRETTY CLOSE TO MOS FOR TEMPS.

MODELS ALL BRING STRONGER WV OUT OF ROCKIES THUR NGT WHICH MAY LIFT
THE POLAR FNT INTO THE DAKOTAS AND PULL SFC LOW FARTHER N.  THIS SHD
PRODUCE SOME DRY LINE ACTION OVER WRN KS FEEDING ON MSTR STREAM OF
THE LLJ AS SUGGESTED BY NGM SO WL NEED SOME DECENT POPS THUR NGT
INTO FRIDAY MRNG THO ITS HARD TO SAY WHERE THE BEST FOCUS WL BE IN
THIS TIME FRAME SO WL NOT HIT IT AS HARD AS TNGT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS FOR THE FORECAST
PERIOD. GENERAL OVERALL PATTERN IS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED CLOSE TO THE INTERSECTION OF MEXICO...TEXAS
AND NEW MEXICO WITH KANSAS BEING ON THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST EDGE OF
THE HIGH BUBBLE. MAIN UPPER JET TO REMAIN CLOSE TO THE U.S./CAN
BORDER WITH TWO DISTINCT WAVE PROGRESSING ALONG IT LENDING ITS
INFLUENCE TO KANSAS WEATHER. THE FIRST SHOULD ARRIVE DURING THE
WEEKEND...THE SECOND DURING THE TUE/WED TIME PERIOD.

BIG QUESTION IN THE EXTENDED IS IF THE CAP FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE IS
GOING TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION. I THINK THE ANSWER
TO THAT QUESTION IS NO FOR SEVERAL REASONS.  FIRST...UNTIL WE GET
SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...WE ARE GOING TO
HAVE TONS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THANKS TO HOW THE WET
THE GROUND IS...AND ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT.
ALSO...GIVEN THAT WE LOOK TO BE ON THE FRINGE OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE...THAT IN ITSELF WILL LEND TOWARD LESS OF A CAP.
FINALLY...GIVEN OUR LOCATION OF BEING ON THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE
HIGH AND GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE MAIN JET TO THE NORTH...THE STATE
LOOKS TO BE IN AN AREA OF 500 TO 300 MB WIND
DIVERGENCE...PARTICULARLY OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE TUE/WED TIME
PERIOD WHEN THE TWO WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO PASS CLOSE TO THE AREA.

SO...LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE EVERY DAY OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE DURING THE WEEKEND AND
TUE/WED TIME PERIOD. GENERAL CLOUD PATTERN WILL MOST LIKELY BE A
MOSTLY CLEAR START TO THE DAY WITH SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY BY THE
AFTERNOON THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN OVERNIGHT. THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION TO THIS RULE LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY...AFTER THE PASSAGE OF
THE FIRST WAVE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. UPSLOPE WINDS LOOK
PROMISING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN A CLOUDY COOL
DAY WITH -RA. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...WILL NOT GO THAT EXTREME AND
WORD AS PARTLY SUNNY WITH CONTINUAL SMALL CHANCE OF TSRA.

FOR TEMPS...WILL GO CLOSE TO FMR LOW TEMPS...HOWEVER...FOR THE HIGHS
WILL UNDERCUT ABOUT 5 DEGREES GIVEN A LOT OF THE SOLAR RADIATION
WILL GO INTO EVAPORATING GROUND MOISTURE.  WILL UNDERCUT TEMPS THE
MOST ON SUNDAY GIVEN EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAT DAY.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC UU 064/089 065/089 066 088-5
GCK BB 064/089 064/089 065 08825
EHA BB 062/090 062/090 063 08424
LBL BB 063/090 063/090 064 08424
HYS UB 063/087 064/089 065 08714
P28 UU 068/089 068/089 068 08634

.DDC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT KSZ030-031-043>046-062>066-076>081
       -087>090.  ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A LAKIN...SATANTA...MEADE
       LINE.

JOHNSON/SLEIGHTER

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-241000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK     ...UPDATED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
327 PM CDT WED JUN 23 1999

...SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS
TONIGHT AND FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TONIGHT IT NOW APPEARS
THAT TORRENTIAL RAINS ARE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

CURRENT DATA INDICATES THAT A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
THIS EVENING.  THE GROUND IS ALREADY QUITE SATURATED FROM THE RAIN
WHICH FELL LAST NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN A 50 MILE WIDE BAND FROM JUST
NORTH OF LAKIN THROUGH GARDEN CITY...CIMARRON...MINNEOLA AND
ASHLAND.

SINCE ANOTHER MAJOR MULTICELL STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED SOMEWHERE IN
THIS AREA TONIGHT FLASH FLOODING PROBLEMS MAY WELL ENSUE.

IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO PREDICT EXACTLY WHERE TONIGHTS SYSTEM WILL
TRACK BUT IT CURRENTLY APPEARS IT WILL BE FAIRLY NEAR THE SAME PATH
TAKEN BY LAST NIGHTS STORMS.  A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR TONIGHT WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...YOU MAY VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT:
HTTP://WWW.DODGECITY.NET/NWS/

JOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
342 PM CDT WED JUN 23 1999

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0930 PM    24 NW LAKIN               KS   1.75 INCH HAIL
06/22/99   KEARNY                         WINDS ESTIMATED AT 90 MPH BLEW 6
                                          INCH DIAMETER LIMBS DOWN

1000 PM    15 NW LAKIN               KS   1.50 INCH HAIL
06/22/99   KEARNY

1000 PM    9 N KENDALL               KS   1.75 INCH HAIL
06/22/99   HAMILTON

1015 PM    11 N GARDEN CITY          KS
06/22/99   FINNEY                         *** 1 INJ ***
                                          LIGHTNING STRUCK CHIMNEY OF
                                          HOME...TRAVELLED THROUGH TELEPHONE
                                          WIRE AND BURNED THE EAR OF RESIDENT.

1035 PM    1 NW KENDALL              KS   0.75 INCH HAIL
06/22/99   HAMILTON

1040 PM    4 S BIG BOW               KS   0.75 INCH HAIL
06/22/99   STANTON

1100 PM    8 WSW TREGO CENTER        KS   0.75 INCH HAIL
06/22/99   TREGO                          WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ACCOMPANIED THE
                                          STORM

1115 PM    15 NE GARDEN CITY         KS   63 MPH TSTM GUST
06/22/99   FINNEY                         MEASURED BY HOME
                                          ANEMOMETER

1130 PM    13 NW KALVESTA            KS   0.75 INCH HAIL
06/22/99   FINNEY

1210 AM    2 SW DODGE CITY           KS   70 MPH TSTM GUST
06/23/99   FORD                           TREE AND WINDOW DAMAGE TO TRAILER
                                          HOMES. FENCE WAS TWISTED.
          N
0300 AM    8 NE GARDEN CITY          KS   1.00 INCH HAIL
06/23/99   FINNEY

01