Severe Thunderstorm Warning 115, NWS Pueblo, CO

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
210 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 1998

CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS AND SEVERE POTENTIAL.

HAVE DECIDED AFTER COORDINATION WITH DENVER TO KEEP FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR TELLER AND EL PASO COUNTIES.

CURRENT SITUATION SHOWS WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
PLAINS AND ESPECIALLY OVER EL PASO COUNTY.  THESE CLOUDS HAVE REALLY
PUT A DAMPER ON HEATING.  CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...SO AREAS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ARE STORM FREE AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...TO THE WEST...SEVERE STORMS HAVE FIRED IN WESTERN SAGUACHE
COUNTY AND SCATTERED CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO.  BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LEAST INSTABILITY
IN THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...BUT 1000 TO 2000 JOULES NEAR THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS.  STORMS IN THE WESTERN PART OF CWFA A RESULT OF INCOMING
SYSTEM FROM UTAH...WITH MORE DYANAMICS.  MORE DYNAMICS IN DENVER CWFA
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

IF STORMS DO GET GOING ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...THEY WILL DO SO IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.  WATCHING BOUNDARY IN DOUGLAS AND
ELBERT COUNTIES JUST NORTH OF OUR CWFA FOR FIRING OF FIRST STORMS EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS.  UPPER WINDS IN THE EVENING ARE STILL QUITE LIGHT...SO
IF A FEW STORMS DO GO...THEY WOULD DUMP LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.  SO WILL
KEEP FFA GOING IN TELLER AND EL PASO COUNTY PER COORD WITH DENVER.
     B
WILL FOLLOW TEMP AND POP GUIDANCE FAIRLY CLOSELY TONIGHT

TLM

COZ060>081-010600-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
NOON MDT FRI JUL 31 1998

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES:

ALAMOSA      BACA        BENT          CHAFFEE        CONEJOS
COSTILLA     CROWLEY     CUSTER        EL PASO        FREMONT
HUERFANO     KIOWA       LAS ANIMAS    MINERAL        OTERO
PROWERS      PUEBLO      RIO GRANDE    SAGUACHE       TELLER

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TELLER AND EL PASO COUNTIES
FROM NOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT...

SOME AREAS OF EL PASO COUNTY...WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY...NORTHERN BENT
COUNTY...AND WESTERN PROWERS COUNTY RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL YESTERDAY.

DAYTIME HEATING...PLENTY OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...AND INSTABILITY WILL
PRODUCE SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOME OF THE SLOW MOVING STORMS OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AND FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVER TELLER AND EL
PASO COUNTIES WITH THE ALREADY SATURATED GROUND IN SOME AREAS.

A FEW STORMS...ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS FROM COLORADO SPRINGS TO
TRINIDAD...MAY BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY.

TLM